Game Recap: TOR 1, FLA 5, February 26, 2026

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Game Recap

TOR1

FinalThu, Feb 26, 2026Every game that night

FLA5

FLA beat TOR 5-1, and the chances backed it up: 5.04 expected goals to 2.41. B. Marchand led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). E. Rodrigues had 9 shots on goal against our projection of 2.7. S. Bobrovsky stopped 29 of 30.

Team Stats

TORFLA

30Shots on goal37

2.41Expected goals5.04

50Shot attempts64

225v5 shots on goal29

1/3Power play1/3

21Hits19

12Blocked shots10

8Penalty minutes8

15Giveaways13

4Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

TOR 2.41 xGFLA 5.04 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

TOR29 on goal, 1 scored

FLA35 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

TOR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Tavares	C	1	0	1	3	0	0	-3	0	18:38	4:53
A. Matthews	C	0	1	1	2	1	1	-4	0	18:34	4:51
W. Nylander	RW	0	0	0	1	0	1	-3	0	18:11	4:51
M. Knies	LW	0	0	0	4	1	0	-4	0	17:17	4:46
M. Maccelli	LW	0	0	0	3	0	0	-1	2	15:09	1:05
N. Roy	C	0	0	0	2	2	3	0	2	15:01	0:02
S. Laughton	C	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	14:25	0:00
B. McMann	C	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	14:05	1:05
M. Domi	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	-2	0	13:54	1:05
S. Lorentz	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	13:45	0:00
N. Robertson	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	12:01	1:06
D. Joshua	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	11:01	0:02
O. Ekman-Larsson	D	0	1	1	1	0	3	-3	0	20:56	3:03
T. Stecher	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	21:14	0:02
J. McCabe	D	0	0	0	3	2	0	-1	2	20:44	0:06
M. Rielly	D	0	0	0	2	1	0	-1	0	19:11	2:53
B. Carlo	D	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	16:53	0:00
S. Benoit	D	0	0	0	1	3	1	0	2	14:18	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Woll	35	32	3	.914	59:07	Loss
A. Stolarz	0	0	0	–	0:00

FLA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
E. Rodrigues	C	1	1	2	9	1	0	+1	0	16:52	1:36
A. Lundell	C	0	2	2	1	2	1	+2	0	16:18	1:16
B. Marchand	LW	2	0	2	3	0	0	+2	0	14:10	3:29
S. Bennett	C	0	1	1	3	0	0	+1	0	18:41	3:32
M. Tkachuk	LW	1	0	1	3	1	0	+1	0	18:26	4:19
S. Reinhart	C	0	1	1	2	1	0	+2	0	18:01	3:59
C. Verhaeghe	C	1	0	1	3	0	1	0	0	14:03	2:07
E. Luostarinen	C	0	0	0	3	1	2	+2	0	16:04	0:00
M. Samoskevich	RW	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	2	14:12	0:00
A. Greer	LW	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	12:05	0:01
S. Vilmanis	LW	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	11:13	0:01
C. Schwindt	RW	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	7:23	0:01
G. Forsling	D	0	0	0	2	1	2	+3	0	22:56	2:10
N. Mikkola	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	+2	0	21:06	0:01
U. Balinskis	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	+2	0	20:13	3:25
A. Ekblad	D	0	0	0	1	2	0	+1	6	19:06	2:02
J. Petry	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	17:48	0:01
D. Sebrango	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	15:25	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Bobrovsky	30	29	1	.967	60:00	Win
D. Tarasov	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

TOR

Line 1N. Roy13:09B. McMann13:00D. Joshua10:59

Line 2J. Tavares12:51M. Maccelli13:43W. Nylander12:23

Line 3M. Domi12:17A. Matthews11:23M. Knies10:20

Line 4S. Laughton11:04N. Robertson10:55S. Lorentz10:37

Pair 1J. McCabe18:23T. Stecher19:00

Pair 2M. Rielly15:08B. Carlo13:14

Pair 3O. Ekman-Larsson16:59S. Benoit12:20

FLA

Line 1S. Bennett13:45M. Tkachuk13:44M. Samoskevich14:12

Line 2C. Verhaeghe11:56E. Rodrigues13:19S. Reinhart11:18

Line 3A. Greer10:59S. Vilmanis11:12C. Schwindt7:22

Line 4E. Luostarinen13:05A. Lundell11:31B. Marchand10:09

Pair 1A. Ekblad15:34G. Forsling15:48

Pair 2N. Mikkola16:50U. Balinskis15:41

Pair 3J. Petry15:55D. Sebrango15:25

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamSergei Bobrovsky TOR First game back in South Florida, his team until Apr 202629 saves on 30, the win
Old teamAnthony Stolarz TOR Faces FLA, his team until Jun 20240 saves on 0

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	TOR 2.9, FLA 3.7	TOR 1, FLA 5
Total goals	6.6	6
Shots on goal	TOR 24.3, FLA 33.3	TOR 30, FLA 37
Win chance	FLA 62%	FLA won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
TOR A. Matthews	3.2	2	0.99	1	39%	0
FLA S. Reinhart	3.0	2	1.09	1	41%	0
FLA S. Bennett	2.9	3	0.81	1	30%	0
FLA M. Tkachuk	2.9	3	1.07	1	32%	1
FLA E. Rodrigues	2.7	9	0.61	2	21%	1
FLA A. Lundell	2.6	1	0.77	2	23%	0
FLA C. Verhaeghe	2.6	3	0.78	1	28%	1
FLA B. Marchand	2.4	3	0.83	2	28%	2
TOR J. Tavares	2.1	3	0.73	1	28%	1
TOR B. McMann	2.0	2	0.48	0	22%	0
TOR W. Nylander	2.0	1	0.84	0	29%	0
FLA M. Samoskevich	1.9	3	0.34	0	13%	0
FLA U. Balinskis	1.9	1	0.47	0	13%	0
FLA G. Forsling	1.7	2	0.47	0	13%	0
TOR M. Rielly	1.6	2	0.51	0	9%	0
FLA E. Luostarinen	1.6	3	0.51	0	15%	0
TOR M. Knies	1.6	4	0.63	0	22%	0
FLA A. Ekblad	1.5	1	0.49	0	11%	0
TOR M. Domi	1.5	1	0.56	0	15%	0
FLA A. Greer	1.5	2	0.36	0	15%	0
TOR O. Ekman-Larsson	1.4	1	0.47	1	8%	0
TOR N. Robertson	1.4	2	0.38	0	17%	0
TOR M. Maccelli	1.4	3	0.48	0	15%	0
FLA N. Mikkola	1.2	0	0.25	0	7%	0
TOR T. Stecher	1.1	1	0.19	0	5%	0
TOR S. Laughton	1.1	2	0.30	0	13%	0
TOR J. McCabe	1.1	3	0.34	0	5%	0
TOR B. Carlo	1.0	0	0.16	0	3%	0
TOR N. Roy	0.9	2	0.36	0	13%	0
FLA J. Petry	0.9	1	0.26	0	5%	0
FLA S. Vilmanis	0.9	0	0.31	0	13%	0
FLA C. Schwindt	0.9	0	0.23	0	9%	0
TOR S. Lorentz	0.8	0	0.22	0	9%	0
TOR D. Joshua	0.8	0	0.28	0	14%	0
TOR S. Benoit	0.6	1	0.10	0	2%	0
FLA D. Sebrango	0.6	0	0.13	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 25 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.