Game Recap: TOR 3, LAK 1, March 29, 2025

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Game Recap

TOR3

FinalSat, Mar 29, 2025Every game that night

LAK1

TOR beat LAK 3-1, and the chances backed it up: 3.94 expected goals to 2.35. LAK outshot TOR 36 to 26. J. Tavares led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). A. Kuzmenko had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 1.4. A. Stolarz stopped 35 of 36.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
TOR	0	0	3	3
LAK	0	1	0	1

2nd 1:57LAKA. Laferriere0.12 xG
3rd 0:55TORA. MatthewsSH0.15 xG
3rd 12:04TORJ. TavaresPP0.11 xG
3rd 18:35TORJ. TavaresEN0.84 xG

Team Stats

TORLAK

26Shots on goal36

3.94Expected goals2.35

47Shot attempts71

155v5 shots on goal28

1/4Power play0/3

26Hits17

14Blocked shots9

13Penalty minutes11

10Giveaways8

2Takeaways2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

TOR 3.94 xGLAK 2.35 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

TOR23 on goal, 3 scored

LAK36 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

TOR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Matthews	C	1	1	2	8	0	2	+2	0	22:07	4:21
J. Tavares	C	2	0	2	3	0	0	+1	2	17:12	3:19
M. Marner	RW	0	1	1	1	0	0	+2	0	22:13	4:32
M. Knies	LW	0	0	0	2	4	0	0	0	20:02	2:45
W. Nylander	RW	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	4	18:49	3:02
B. McMann	C	0	0	0	3	4	0	0	0	14:20	1:12
M. Domi	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	2	12:46	0:59
C. Jarnkrok	C	0	0	0	0	3	1	-1	0	12:38	1:15
D. Kampf	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	12:12	0:00
S. Laughton	C	0	0	0	1	3	1	-1	0	11:10	0:00
S. Lorentz	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	8:18	0:00
P. Holmberg	RW	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	7:38	0:00
J. McCabe	D	0	1	1	2	0	2	+1	0	21:03	0:00
M. Rielly	D	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	0	19:40	2:11
O. Ekman-Larsson	D	0	0	0	2	4	0	0	0	21:50	0:55
C. Tanev	D	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	0	19:41	0:00
B. Carlo	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	+2	5	16:05	0:00
S. Benoit	D	0	0	0	0	3	1	-1	0	14:16	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Stolarz	36	35	1	.972	60:00	Win
J. Woll	0	0	0	–	0:00

LAK Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
P. Danault	C	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	19:04	1:16
A. Laferriere	RW	1	0	1	6	2	1	+1	0	15:08	0:00
A. Kempe	RW	0	0	0	2	3	0	-2	0	19:54	3:15
K. Fiala	LW	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	0	19:39	3:16
A. Kopitar	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	-2	0	19:27	3:21
A. Kuzmenko	LW	0	0	0	7	1	0	-2	0	18:38	3:18
Q. Byfield	RW	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	18:30	0:54
W. Foegele	LW	0	0	0	3	0	1	0	0	16:33	1:10
T. Moore	LW	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	2	15:17	1:10
T. Lewis	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	5:52	0:00
S. Helenius	C	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	5:42	0:00
J. Malott	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	5	5:35	0:00
D. Doughty	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	-2	2	26:26	3:24
M. Anderson	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	24:32	0:00
V. Gavrikov	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	+1	2	19:08	0:02
J. Edmundson	D	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	18:18	0:22
B. Clarke	D	0	0	0	3	0	2	0	0	13:35	1:07
J. Spence	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	+1	0	11:42	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Kuemper	25	23	2	.920	57:40	Loss
D. Rittich	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamScott Laughton LAK Faces TOR, his team until Mar 20261 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	TOR 3.0, LAK 3.2	TOR 3, LAK 1
Total goals	6.2	4
Shots on goal	TOR 25.5, LAK 30.1	TOR 26, LAK 36
Win chance	LAK 55%	TOR won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
TOR A. Matthews	3.5	8	1.00	2	40%	1
TOR W. Nylander	2.7	0	0.88	0	33%	0
LAK A. Kempe	2.6	2	0.82	0	33%	0
LAK K. Fiala	2.6	1	0.82	0	29%	0
LAK W. Foegele	2.3	3	0.56	0	22%	0
TOR J. Tavares	2.3	3	0.77	2	29%	2
LAK A. Laferriere	2.1	6	0.43	1	18%	1
LAK T. Moore	2.1	4	0.55	0	22%	0
TOR B. McMann	1.9	3	0.43	0	21%	0
LAK Q. Byfield	1.9	1	0.67	0	21%	0
TOR M. Marner	1.8	1	0.97	1	26%	0
TOR M. Knies	1.7	2	0.60	0	24%	0
LAK P. Danault	1.6	1	0.55	1	18%	0
LAK B. Clarke	1.5	3	0.41	0	6%	0
LAK D. Doughty	1.4	1	0.56	0	11%	0
TOR M. Rielly	1.4	1	0.47	1	7%	0
LAK A. Kuzmenko	1.4	7	0.61	0	25%	0
TOR O. Ekman-Larsson	1.3	2	0.35	0	6%	0
LAK V. Gavrikov	1.3	0	0.33	0	6%	0
TOR S. Laughton	1.2	1	0.32	0	12%	0
LAK J. Edmundson	1.2	2	0.25	0	6%	0
LAK A. Kopitar	1.2	2	0.74	0	22%	0
TOR M. Domi	1.2	0	0.39	0	11%	0
LAK M. Anderson	1.1	2	0.28	0	6%	0
TOR C. Jarnkrok	1.1	0	0.30	0	13%	0
LAK T. Lewis	1.0	0	0.18	0	8%	0
LAK J. Spence	1.0	1	0.30	0	4%	0
TOR J. McCabe	1.0	2	0.29	1	5%	0
TOR S. Lorentz	0.9	0	0.19	0	9%	0
TOR B. Carlo	0.8	1	0.14	0	4%	0
TOR P. Holmberg	0.8	0	0.22	0	10%	0
TOR D. Kampf	0.8	0	0.21	0	8%	0
LAK S. Helenius	0.6	0	0.17	0	8%	0
TOR C. Tanev	0.6	2	0.19	0	3%	0
TOR S. Benoit	0.6	0	0.09	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 21 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.