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Game Recap
TOR1
MIN2
MIN beat TOR 2-1 in overtime, and the chances backed it up: 3.18 expected goals to 1.65. J. Spurgeon led the way with 2 points (0 G, 2 A). F. Gustavsson stopped 27 of 28.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| MIN | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
- 1st 10:19MINR. Hartman0.46 xG
- 1st 19:08TORW. NylanderPP0.07 xG
- OT 2:14MINM. Boldy0.19 xG
Team Stats
TORMIN
28Shots on goal33
1.65Expected goals3.18
47Shot attempts71
175v5 shots on goal29
1/2Power play0/3
30Hits22
24Blocked shots8
8Penalty minutes6
10Giveaways15
2Takeaways7
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
TOR 1.65 xGMIN 3.18 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
TOR Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Matthews | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 22:12 | 2:33 |
| M. Marner | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 21:51 | 2:30 |
| W. Nylander | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:46 | 2:39 |
| M. Knies | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:43 | 1:54 |
| J. Tavares | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 16:26 | 1:57 |
| M. Domi | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 16:00 | 0:31 |
| M. Pacioretty | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 14:10 | 1:14 |
| B. McMann | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:10 | 1:15 |
| D. Kampf | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:05 | 0:00 |
| N. Robertson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:49 | 0:00 |
| S. Lorentz | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:16 | 0:00 |
| R. Reaves | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6:26 | 0:00 |
| J. McCabe | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 22:20 | 0:01 |
| O. Ekman-Larsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 21:29 | 0:37 |
| C. Tanev | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 20:24 | 0:00 |
| M. Rielly | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:14 | 0:39 |
| C. Timmins | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 17:49 | 0:00 |
| S. Benoit | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 16:32 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Stolarz | 33 | 31 | 2 | .939 | 62:14 | OT loss |
| J. Woll | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
MIN Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Boldy | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 21:11 | 5:09 |
| M. Rossi | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 19:59 | 0:54 |
| F. Gaudreau | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:56 | 0:53 |
| R. Hartman | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 12:36 | 0:46 |
| K. Kaprizov | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 24:25 | 5:06 |
| J. Eriksson Ek | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:42 | 5:04 |
| M. Zuccarello | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:28 | 5:07 |
| M. Johansson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:01 | 0:56 |
| M. Foligno | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:07 | 0:00 |
| M. Khusnutdinov | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10:38 | 0:00 |
| J. Lauko | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:02 | 0:00 |
| Y. Trenin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:44 | 0:00 |
| J. Spurgeon | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 22:00 | 1:10 |
| B. Faber | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 24:42 | 4:50 |
| J. Brodin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 23:50 | 0:00 |
| J. Middleton | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 19:09 | 0:00 |
| Z. Bogosian | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:29 | 0:05 |
| D. Chisholm | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:57 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F. Gustavsson | 28 | 27 | 1 | .964 | 61:50 | Win |
| M. Fleury | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | TOR 3.1, MIN 3.4 | TOR 1, MIN 2 |
| Total goals | 6.5 | 3 |
| Shots on goal | TOR 29.7, MIN 30.0 | TOR 28, MIN 33 |
| Win chance | MIN 55% | MIN won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR A. Matthews | 4.0 | 3 | 1.04 | 1 | 43% | 0 |
| MIN K. Kaprizov | 3.9 | 1 | 1.47 | 0 | 48% | 0 |
| MIN M. Boldy | 3.2 | 3 | 0.98 | 1 | 33% | 1 |
| TOR W. Nylander | 3.1 | 3 | 0.89 | 1 | 32% | 1 |
| MIN J. Ek | 3.0 | 4 | 0.81 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| TOR J. Tavares | 3.0 | 1 | 0.71 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| MIN M. Zuccarello | 2.4 | 4 | 0.94 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| TOR M. Marner | 2.2 | 1 | 1.03 | 1 | 27% | 0 |
| MIN R. Hartman | 2.2 | 3 | 0.62 | 1 | 24% | 1 |
| TOR B. McMann | 2.1 | 2 | 0.39 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| TOR M. Rielly | 2.0 | 1 | 0.62 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| TOR M. Knies | 2.0 | 1 | 0.52 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| MIN M. Rossi | 1.9 | 1 | 0.53 | 1 | 21% | 0 |
| TOR M. Pacioretty | 1.8 | 3 | 0.48 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| TOR N. Robertson | 1.7 | 1 | 0.34 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| TOR O. Ekman-Larsson | 1.7 | 2 | 0.39 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| MIN J. Brodin | 1.7 | 4 | 0.37 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| TOR M. Domi | 1.6 | 2 | 0.52 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| MIN F. Gaudreau | 1.6 | 1 | 0.38 | 1 | 16% | 0 |
| MIN B. Faber | 1.6 | 1 | 0.56 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| MIN J. Spurgeon | 1.4 | 2 | 0.42 | 2 | 9% | 0 |
| MIN M. Johansson | 1.4 | 3 | 0.43 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| MIN Y. Trenin | 1.3 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| MIN Z. Bogosian | 1.1 | 1 | 0.19 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| MIN J. Middleton | 1.1 | 2 | 0.33 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| TOR J. McCabe | 1.0 | 1 | 0.34 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| MIN M. Foligno | 0.9 | 0 | 0.36 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| TOR S. Lorentz | 0.9 | 1 | 0.17 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| MIN J. Lauko | 0.9 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| TOR D. Kampf | 0.9 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| TOR C. Timmins | 0.9 | 2 | 0.36 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| MIN D. Chisholm | 0.8 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| TOR S. Benoit | 0.7 | 1 | 0.09 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| TOR C. Tanev | 0.7 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| TOR R. Reaves | 0.5 | 1 | 0.12 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| MIN M. Khusnutdinov | 0.5 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 26 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.