Game Recap: TOR 4, MIN 2, March 15, 2026

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Game Recap

TOR4

FinalSun, Mar 15, 2026Every game that night

MIN2

TOR beat MIN 4-2 despite fewer good chances: 2.09 expected goals to 4.78. MIN outshot TOR 38 to 26. V. Tarasenko led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). M. Zuccarello had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.3. A. Stolarz stopped 36 of 38.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
TOR	0	3	1	4
MIN	0	0	2	2

2nd 1:07TORM. Rielly0.08 xG
2nd 2:19TORB. Groulx0.06 xG
2nd 8:18TORB. Groulx0.07 xG
3rd 4:51MINV. Tarasenko0.16 xG
3rd 5:14MINV. Tarasenko0.04 xG
3rd 19:23TORM. KniesEN0.40 xG

Team Stats

TORMIN

26Shots on goal38

2.09Expected goals4.78

48Shot attempts90

215v5 shots on goal32

0/1Power play0/2

14Hits22

28Blocked shots13

8Penalty minutes6

22Giveaways16

4Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

TOR 2.09 xGMIN 4.78 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

TOR26 on goal, 4 scored

MIN38 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

TOR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
B. Groulx	C	2	0	2	2	1	0	+2	0	17:03	0:00
M. Knies	LW	1	0	1	2	1	1	+1	0	20:47	0:55
J. Tavares	C	0	1	1	3	0	1	0	0	19:49	1:06
M. Maccelli	LW	0	1	1	2	0	0	+1	0	14:19	1:06
N. Robertson	LW	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	2	13:41	0:54
W. Nylander	RW	0	0	0	2	0	1	+1	0	17:42	1:06
E. Cowan	RW	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	16:39	0:54
M. Domi	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	0	15:26	0:54
D. Joshua	C	0	0	0	2	4	0	0	0	11:51	0:54
S. Lorentz	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	10:54	0:00
C. Jarnkrok	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	2	10:22	0:00
J. Quillan	C	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	8:21	0:00
M. Rielly	D	1	0	1	3	0	0	+1	0	17:38	1:06
T. Stecher	D	0	1	1	3	1	4	0	0	17:13	0:00
J. McCabe	D	0	0	0	1	2	9	+2	2	26:49	0:54
B. Carlo	D	0	0	0	1	0	4	+1	2	25:07	0:00
P. Myers	D	0	0	0	1	2	2	0	0	17:28	0:11
S. Benoit	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	14:46	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Stolarz	38	36	2	.947	58:05	Win
J. Woll	0	0	0	–	0:00

MIN Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Zuccarello	RW	0	2	2	5	0	0	+1	2	21:35	4:00
V. Tarasenko	RW	2	0	2	4	3	0	0	0	16:55	0:59
R. Hartman	RW	0	2	2	4	0	0	+2	0	16:52	0:00
K. Kaprizov	LW	0	0	0	2	1	1	-1	2	22:41	4:00
M. Boldy	LW	0	0	0	4	0	1	-2	0	19:28	3:37
J. Eriksson Ek	C	0	0	0	4	1	0	-2	0	18:47	3:01
M. Johansson	LW	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	13:13	0:23
D. Yurov	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	12:48	0:00
Y. Trenin	C	0	0	0	3	3	0	-1	2	12:24	0:00
N. Foligno	LW	0	0	0	1	5	0	-1	0	11:10	0:00
M. McCarron	C	0	0	0	1	3	1	-1	0	9:20	0:00
N. Sturm	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	0	7:49	0:00
Q. Hughes	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	-2	0	31:17	3:41
B. Faber	D	0	0	0	2	1	3	-1	0	23:30	0:19
J. Brodin	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	-1	0	19:18	0:00
J. Spurgeon	D	0	0	0	0	0	4	-1	0	18:02	0:00
J. Middleton	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	+1	0	12:11	0:00
J. Petry	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	+1	0	10:14	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Wallstedt	25	22	3	.880	58:26	Loss
F. Gustavsson	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

TOR

Line 1J. Tavares16:13W. Nylander13:58M. Maccelli13:13

Line 2M. Knies14:59E. Cowan14:34M. Domi13:19

Line 3B. Groulx12:50N. Robertson11:05D. Joshua10:09

Line 4C. Jarnkrok9:09S. Lorentz8:36J. Quillan7:13

Pair 1J. McCabe20:36B. Carlo20:35

Pair 2M. Rielly14:15P. Myers14:33

Pair 3T. Stecher14:25S. Benoit12:53

MIN

Line 1R. Hartman15:03M. Zuccarello15:26K. Kaprizov16:07

Line 2J. Ek12:33M. Boldy12:36M. Johansson11:04

Line 3Y. Trenin12:14D. Yurov12:08V. Tarasenko13:31

Line 4N. Foligno9:55M. McCarron8:44N. Sturm6:35

Pair 1Q. Hughes24:07B. Faber20:25

Pair 2J. Spurgeon15:18J. Brodin16:19

Pair 3J. Petry9:44J. Middleton10:46

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	TOR 3.0, MIN 3.6	TOR 4, MIN 2
Total goals	6.7	6
Shots on goal	TOR 27.6, MIN 33.2	TOR 26, MIN 38
Win chance	MIN 60%	TOR won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
MIN K. Kaprizov	3.8	2	1.31	0	45%	0
MIN M. Boldy	3.5	4	1.09	0	35%	0
MIN J. Ek	3.0	4	0.76	0	27%	0
MIN Q. Hughes	2.7	2	1.12	0	16%	0
TOR W. Nylander	2.7	2	1.00	0	35%	0
TOR J. Tavares	2.5	3	0.77	1	31%	0
MIN R. Hartman	2.3	4	0.54	2	23%	0
MIN M. Zuccarello	2.3	5	0.88	2	23%	0
MIN B. Faber	1.9	2	0.49	0	13%	0
TOR M. Knies	1.9	2	0.69	1	24%	1
MIN V. Tarasenko	1.9	4	0.55	2	21%	2
TOR M. Rielly	1.7	3	0.46	1	9%	1
TOR N. Robertson	1.7	2	0.38	1	18%	0
TOR M. Maccelli	1.6	2	0.50	1	17%	0
TOR E. Cowan	1.6	0	0.37	0	15%	0
TOR M. Domi	1.4	0	0.44	0	13%	0
MIN M. Johansson	1.4	1	0.49	0	15%	0
MIN M. McCarron	1.4	1	0.23	0	11%	0
MIN J. Spurgeon	1.3	0	0.31	0	9%	0
MIN D. Yurov	1.2	0	0.42	0	15%	0
TOR P. Myers	1.2	1	0.12	0	3%	0
MIN Y. Trenin	1.2	3	0.28	0	12%	0
TOR B. Carlo	1.2	1	0.14	0	3%	0
MIN J. Brodin	1.1	2	0.29	0	7%	0
TOR T. Stecher	1.1	3	0.17	1	4%	0
TOR J. McCabe	1.1	1	0.31	0	5%	0
MIN N. Foligno	1.0	1	0.31	0	11%	0
TOR B. Groulx	1.0	2	0.13	2	8%	2
MIN J. Middleton	1.0	1	0.24	0	6%	0
TOR S. Lorentz	0.9	0	0.20	0	8%	0
TOR D. Joshua	0.9	2	0.28	0	14%	0
TOR C. Jarnkrok	0.9	2	0.22	0	12%	0
MIN J. Petry	0.9	1	0.21	0	4%	0
TOR J. Quillan	0.8	0	0.10	0	7%	0
MIN N. Sturm	0.8	1	0.19	0	9%	0
TOR S. Benoit	0.7	0	0.09	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.