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Game Recap
TOR0
MTL1
MTL beat TOR 1-0 despite fewer good chances: 3.45 expected goals to 4.41. TOR outshot MTL 48 to 27. M. Marner had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.5. S. Montembeault stopped 48 of 48.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| MTL | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
- 1st 7:48MTLC. CaufieldPP0.13 xG
Team Stats
TORMTL
48Shots on goal27
4.41Expected goals3.45
103Shot attempts47
405v5 shots on goal18
0/4Power play1/5
23Hits23
15Blocked shots25
10Penalty minutes8
13Giveaways14
4Takeaways5
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
TOR 4.41 xGMTL 3.45 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
TOR Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Marner | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 22:39 | 4:20 |
| A. Matthews | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21:13 | 4:24 |
| W. Nylander | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:18 | 4:14 |
| J. Tavares | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:48 | 4:20 |
| M. Knies | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:48 | 3:21 |
| M. Domi | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 17:00 | 3:27 |
| M. Pacioretty | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13:24 | 3:29 |
| N. Robertson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:27 | 2:43 |
| P. Holmberg | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:10 | 0:00 |
| D. Kampf | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9:43 | 0:16 |
| S. Lorentz | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9:03 | 0:13 |
| R. Reaves | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7:36 | 0:10 |
| M. Rielly | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 24:05 | 4:38 |
| O. Ekman-Larsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 20:45 | 3:21 |
| C. Tanev | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 18:17 | 0:20 |
| J. McCabe | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 18:17 | 0:33 |
| C. Timmins | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 16:08 | 0:00 |
| S. Benoit | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:26 | 0:11 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Stolarz | 27 | 26 | 1 | .963 | 57:14 | Loss |
| D. Hildeby | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
MTL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Slafkovský | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 18:01 | 4:50 |
| C. Caufield | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:43 | 4:19 |
| K. Dach | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:59 | 4:49 |
| N. Suzuki | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20:40 | 4:16 |
| J. Evans | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:04 | 0:00 |
| J. Armia | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:21 | 2:28 |
| B. Gallagher | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:43 | 2:16 |
| A. Newhook | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 13:13 | 2:16 |
| C. Dvorak | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 12:21 | 0:00 |
| J. Anderson | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11:27 | 0:00 |
| A. Barré-Boulet | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10:21 | 2:27 |
| E. Heineman | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 9:40 | 0:00 |
| M. Matheson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 26:35 | 4:35 |
| K. Guhle | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 23:45 | 0:17 |
| D. Savard | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 20:05 | 0:00 |
| L. Hutson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 18:22 | 2:32 |
| A. Xhekaj | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:50 | 0:25 |
| J. Barron | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 11:50 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Montembeault | 48 | 48 | 0 | 1.000 | 60:00 | Win |
| C. Primeau | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | TOR 3.8, MTL 2.9 | TOR 0, MTL 1 |
| Total goals | 6.7 | 1 |
| Shots on goal | TOR 34.1, MTL 27.4 | TOR 48, MTL 27 |
| Win chance | TOR 62% | MTL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR A. Matthews | 4.7 | 6 | 1.22 | 0 | 49% | 0 |
| TOR W. Nylander | 4.2 | 1 | 1.18 | 0 | 40% | 0 |
| MTL C. Caufield | 3.9 | 4 | 0.82 | 1 | 33% | 1 |
| TOR J. Tavares | 3.8 | 4 | 0.91 | 0 | 34% | 0 |
| TOR M. Rielly | 2.6 | 4 | 0.84 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| TOR M. Marner | 2.5 | 6 | 1.23 | 0 | 33% | 0 |
| TOR M. Pacioretty | 2.4 | 2 | 0.59 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| TOR M. Domi | 2.4 | 1 | 0.72 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| MTL J. Armia | 2.3 | 3 | 0.43 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| MTL N. Suzuki | 2.3 | 3 | 0.90 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| MTL M. Matheson | 2.3 | 0 | 0.70 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| MTL J. Slafkovský | 2.2 | 1 | 0.67 | 1 | 23% | 0 |
| MTL B. Gallagher | 2.1 | 4 | 0.42 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| TOR M. Knies | 1.9 | 5 | 0.53 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| MTL K. Dach | 1.8 | 1 | 0.54 | 1 | 17% | 0 |
| MTL J. Anderson | 1.8 | 1 | 0.34 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| TOR N. Robertson | 1.8 | 2 | 0.38 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| MTL A. Newhook | 1.7 | 3 | 0.55 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| MTL A. Xhekaj | 1.5 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| TOR O. Ekman-Larsson | 1.4 | 3 | 0.34 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| MTL J. Evans | 1.2 | 1 | 0.43 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| TOR D. Kampf | 1.2 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| MTL C. Dvorak | 1.2 | 1 | 0.40 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| MTL J. Barron | 1.2 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| TOR J. McCabe | 1.2 | 2 | 0.38 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| MTL K. Guhle | 1.1 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| TOR P. Holmberg | 1.1 | 2 | 0.33 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| TOR C. Timmins | 1.0 | 3 | 0.44 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| MTL A. Barré-Boulet | 1.0 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| TOR S. Benoit | 1.0 | 1 | 0.12 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| MTL D. Savard | 0.9 | 0 | 0.34 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| TOR C. Tanev | 0.9 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| TOR S. Lorentz | 0.8 | 4 | 0.14 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| TOR R. Reaves | 0.6 | 1 | 0.16 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 20 of 34 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.