Game Recap: TOR 2, MTL 5, November 22, 2025

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Game Recap

TOR2

FinalSat, Nov 22, 2025Every game that night

MTL5

MTL beat TOR 5-2, and the chances backed it up: 3.97 expected goals to 1.40. N. Dobson led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). S. Lorentz had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.1. J. Dobes stopped 24 of 26.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
TOR	0	1	1	2
MTL	2	2	1	5

1st 12:11MTLL. Hutson0.17 xG
1st 13:33MTLN. Dobson0.04 xG
2nd 4:09MTLN. Dobson0.09 xG
2nd 13:11MTLJ. Anderson0.07 xG
2nd 17:19TORO. Ekman-Larsson0.05 xG
3rd 14:55TORW. NylanderPP0.08 xG
3rd 17:50MTLJ. AndersonEN0.53 xG

Team Stats

TORMTL

26Shots on goal29

1.40Expected goals3.97

55Shot attempts59

215v5 shots on goal17

1/3Power play0/3

20Hits25

14Blocked shots17

35Penalty minutes33

17Giveaways16

1Takeaways8

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

TOR 1.40 xGMTL 3.97 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

TOR26 on goal, 2 scored

MTL28 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

TOR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
W. Nylander	RW	1	1	2	2	1	0	-1	2	19:53	2:52
E. Cowan	RW	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	0	19:34	3:03
M. Maccelli	LW	0	1	1	0	0	1	0	0	12:41	2:05
J. Tavares	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	2	22:40	3:08
S. Laughton	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	-2	0	16:29	0:00
M. Domi	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	15:08	1:35
D. Joshua	C	0	0	0	1	2	1	-2	10	14:11	0:00
B. McMann	C	0	0	0	2	2	1	-2	0	13:26	1:25
S. Lorentz	C	0	0	0	4	1	0	-1	10	13:03	0:00
C. Jarnkrok	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	12:34	2:22
N. Robertson	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-2	0	10:38	1:13
S. Blais	LW	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	0	9:39	0:00
M. Rielly	D	0	1	1	4	0	1	-2	0	22:25	3:05
O. Ekman-Larsson	D	1	0	1	3	4	2	-2	2	21:21	1:06
T. Stecher	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	-1	0	22:20	0:00
S. Benoit	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	21:04	0:07
D. Mermis	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	7	14:29	0:00
J. McCabe	D	0	0	0	2	1	2	-1	2	12:37	0:31

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Woll	25	21	4	.840	33:11	Loss
D. Hildeby	3	3	0	1.000	24:37

MTL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Anderson	RW	2	0	2	2	5	1	+2	0	18:01	0:00
I. Demidov	RW	0	2	2	1	0	0	+1	0	14:39	3:40
N. Suzuki	C	0	1	1	1	2	1	+1	0	20:27	4:53
J. Evans	C	0	1	1	0	1	0	+1	0	18:21	0:00
C. Caufield	RW	0	1	1	4	1	0	+1	0	18:13	4:46
J. Slafkovský	LW	0	1	1	2	0	1	+1	0	15:23	2:30
F. Xhekaj	LW	0	1	1	2	3	1	+1	7	9:48	0:00
Z. Bolduc	RW	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	16:51	3:48
B. Gallagher	RW	0	0	0	3	2	0	+1	2	15:08	2:22
O. Kapanen	C	0	0	0	3	1	1	+2	0	14:14	2:10
J. Veleno	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	0	11:24	0:00
J. Davidson	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	9:52	0:00
M. Matheson	D	0	2	2	1	1	2	+3	0	23:26	0:02
N. Dobson	D	2	0	2	3	0	1	+1	0	20:44	2:06
L. Hutson	D	1	0	1	3	0	2	+1	0	20:24	3:54
A. Carrier	D	0	0	0	1	0	3	+2	0	17:28	0:00
J. Struble	D	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	14	15:48	0:00
A. Xhekaj	D	0	0	0	0	4	3	+1	10	15:10	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Dobes	26	24	2	.923	58:14	Win
S. Montembeault	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

TOR

Line 1J. Tavares15:19W. Nylander14:29E. Cowan13:28

Line 2S. Laughton11:21B. McMann11:25S. Lorentz9:07

Line 3S. Blais9:01M. Maccelli8:36M. Domi11:23

Line 4D. Joshua10:53N. Robertson8:26C. Jarnkrok7:25

Pair 1O. Ekman-Larsson18:28M. Rielly16:16

Pair 2D. Mermis11:56T. Stecher17:30

Pair 3S. Benoit15:39J. McCabe8:13

MTL

Line 1J. Anderson13:32J. Evans12:50F. Xhekaj9:44

Line 2N. Suzuki11:59C. Caufield11:02Z. Bolduc11:28

Line 3J. Veleno9:39J. Davidson9:52B. Gallagher12:19

Line 4O. Kapanen9:13I. Demidov8:43J. Slafkovský10:56

Pair 1M. Matheson15:20N. Dobson14:00

Pair 2L. Hutson14:16J. Struble15:01

Pair 3A. Carrier14:07A. Xhekaj14:54

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	TOR 3.2, MTL 3.2	TOR 2, MTL 5
Total goals	6.4	7
Shots on goal	TOR 26.1, MTL 28.1	TOR 26, MTL 29
Win chance	MTL 50%	MTL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
MTL C. Caufield	3.1	4	0.86	1	35%	0
TOR J. Tavares	3.1	1	1.04	0	38%	0
TOR W. Nylander	2.9	2	1.20	2	41%	1
MTL N. Dobson	2.3	3	0.70	2	12%	2
MTL N. Suzuki	2.2	1	0.98	1	28%	0
TOR E. Cowan	2.0	1	0.51	1	17%	0
TOR N. Robertson	1.9	0	0.51	0	23%	0
MTL J. Slafkovský	1.9	2	0.56	1	21%	0
TOR B. McMann	1.9	2	0.43	0	21%	0
MTL B. Gallagher	1.7	3	0.43	0	16%	0
TOR M. Rielly	1.7	4	0.70	1	12%	0
MTL Z. Bolduc	1.7	2	0.45	0	20%	0
MTL M. Matheson	1.7	1	0.51	2	11%	0
TOR O. Ekman-Larsson	1.4	3	0.50	1	9%	1
TOR M. Domi	1.4	1	0.49	0	15%	0
MTL J. Anderson	1.4	2	0.33	2	17%	2
MTL L. Hutson	1.3	3	0.90	1	9%	1
MTL I. Demidov	1.3	1	0.65	2	17%	0
TOR M. Maccelli	1.2	0	0.46	1	15%	0
MTL O. Kapanen	1.2	3	0.40	0	16%	0
TOR S. Laughton	1.2	1	0.34	0	13%	0
MTL J. Veleno	1.1	1	0.25	0	11%	0
TOR S. Lorentz	1.1	4	0.29	0	12%	0
MTL J. Evans	1.1	0	0.37	1	12%	0
TOR C. Jarnkrok	1.0	0	0.35	0	16%	0
MTL A. Carrier	1.0	1	0.34	0	5%	0
TOR J. McCabe	1.0	2	0.40	0	7%	0
TOR D. Joshua	0.9	1	0.32	0	15%	0
MTL A. Xhekaj	0.9	0	0.12	0	4%	0
TOR D. Mermis	0.8	1	0.16	0	5%	0
TOR S. Benoit	0.8	2	0.14	0	3%	0
MTL J. Struble	0.7	0	0.23	0	4%	0
TOR T. Stecher	0.7	1	0.11	0	3%	0
TOR S. Blais	0.6	0	0.20	0	7%	0

Shots on goal: 20 of 34 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.