Game Recap: TOR 1, MTL 3, March 10, 2026

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Game Recap

TOR1

FinalTue, Mar 10, 2026Every game that night

MTL3

MTL beat TOR 3-1, and the chances backed it up: 5.32 expected goals to 1.69. MTL outshot TOR 33 to 18. J. Evans had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.2. J. Dobes stopped 17 of 18.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
TOR	0	1	0	1
MTL	2	0	1	3

1st 4:46MTLO. Kapanen0.17 xG
1st 14:41MTLP. Danault0.25 xG
2nd 14:33TORW. Nylander0.14 xG
3rd 19:32MTLJ. EvansEN0.95 xG

Team Stats

TORMTL

18Shots on goal33

1.69Expected goals5.32

47Shot attempts66

165v5 shots on goal29

0/2Power play0/2

23Hits20

15Blocked shots18

11Penalty minutes11

11Giveaways11

3Takeaways8

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

TOR 1.69 xGMTL 5.32 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

TOR17 on goal, 1 scored

MTL33 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

TOR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
W. Nylander	RW	1	0	1	3	0	0	-2	0	20:03	2:23
E. Cowan	RW	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	0	18:21	1:26
A. Matthews	C	0	0	0	2	3	1	0	0	22:28	2:23
J. Tavares	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	-3	0	20:14	2:22
M. Knies	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	2	19:04	2:24
M. Domi	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	14:37	1:36
B. Groulx	C	0	0	0	2	6	0	0	0	14:13	0:00
M. Maccelli	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-2	0	13:46	1:38
N. Robertson	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	12:47	1:37
S. Lorentz	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	10:38	0:00
D. Joshua	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	8:56	0:00
J. Quillan	C	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	8:25	0:00
O. Ekman-Larsson	D	0	0	0	0	1	3	-1	2	24:02	1:38
M. Rielly	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	0	19:10	2:22
J. McCabe	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	7	19:03	0:11
B. Carlo	D	0	0	0	2	2	2	-1	0	19:00	0:00
S. Benoit	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	16:28	0:00
T. Stecher	D	0	0	0	1	0	4	0	0	16:21	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Woll	32	30	2	.938	57:59	Loss
A. Stolarz	0	0	0	–	0:00

MTL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
I. Demidov	RW	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	0	17:31	2:23
P. Danault	C	1	0	1	1	0	1	+2	0	15:12	0:07
O. Kapanen	C	1	0	1	3	1	0	+1	0	15:07	0:00
J. Evans	C	1	0	1	4	3	1	+1	0	15:06	0:07
A. Newhook	C	0	1	1	0	1	0	+1	0	14:20	1:27
N. Suzuki	C	0	0	0	1	2	1	-1	0	20:05	2:46
J. Slafkovský	LW	0	0	0	4	0	0	-1	0	19:51	2:26
Z. Bolduc	RW	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	14:24	1:29
J. Anderson	RW	0	0	0	2	1	0	+2	0	13:58	0:07
K. Dach	C	0	0	0	1	3	0	-1	0	11:36	1:07
B. Gallagher	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	+1	7	11:06	1:19
C. Caufield	RW	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	0	10:27	2:24
M. Matheson	D	0	1	1	2	1	3	0	0	23:49	0:18
K. Guhle	D	0	1	1	1	2	2	+2	0	22:26	0:00
L. Hutson	D	0	1	1	4	0	0	+2	2	21:33	2:45
N. Dobson	D	0	0	0	3	0	4	-1	0	19:13	1:15
A. Carrier	D	0	0	0	2	0	3	+1	0	18:56	0:00
A. Xhekaj	D	0	0	0	1	3	1	0	2	10:59	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Dobes	18	17	1	.944	59:56	Win
S. Montembeault	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

TOR

Line 1M. Domi13:01M. Knies14:35A. Matthews15:25

Line 2B. Groulx12:30N. Robertson11:10E. Cowan14:54

Line 3J. Tavares15:51W. Nylander15:04M. Maccelli12:08

Line 4D. Joshua8:56S. Lorentz8:27J. Quillan6:37

Pair 1O. Ekman-Larsson19:52J. McCabe16:40

Pair 2B. Carlo16:42M. Rielly16:16

Pair 3S. Benoit14:45T. Stecher14:37

MTL

Line 1N. Suzuki16:46J. Slafkovský17:25C. Caufield7:38

Line 2A. Newhook12:53O. Kapanen13:13I. Demidov15:08

Line 3K. Dach10:26Z. Bolduc12:55J. Evans10:53

Line 4B. Gallagher9:46P. Danault10:55J. Anderson9:55

Pair 1K. Guhle18:41L. Hutson18:19

Pair 2M. Matheson19:17N. Dobson16:31

Pair 3A. Carrier15:50A. Xhekaj10:59

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	TOR 3.3, MTL 3.7	TOR 1, MTL 3
Total goals	7.0	4
Shots on goal	TOR 27.0, MTL 30.7	TOR 18, MTL 33
Win chance	MTL 56%	MTL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
TOR A. Matthews	3.8	2	1.09	0	43%	0
MTL C. Caufield	3.2	2	0.91	0	35%	0
TOR W. Nylander	2.5	3	1.06	1	36%	1
TOR J. Tavares	2.4	2	0.83	0	32%	0
MTL N. Suzuki	2.4	1	1.05	0	28%	0
MTL J. Slafkovský	2.2	4	0.79	0	25%	0
MTL N. Dobson	2.2	3	0.63	0	14%	0
TOR M. Knies	1.9	0	0.73	0	25%	0
TOR M. Rielly	1.8	0	0.57	0	11%	0
TOR N. Robertson	1.7	0	0.43	0	20%	0
MTL O. Kapanen	1.7	3	0.46	1	19%	1
MTL M. Matheson	1.7	2	0.50	1	11%	0
MTL B. Gallagher	1.7	0	0.36	0	14%	0
MTL I. Demidov	1.6	1	0.77	1	19%	0
TOR M. Maccelli	1.6	1	0.54	0	18%	0
MTL L. Hutson	1.5	4	0.97	1	13%	0
MTL K. Dach	1.5	1	0.44	0	16%	0
MTL Z. Bolduc	1.5	1	0.45	0	17%	0
MTL A. Newhook	1.5	0	0.43	1	17%	0
TOR E. Cowan	1.5	1	0.40	1	16%	0
TOR M. Domi	1.4	0	0.50	0	14%	0
TOR O. Ekman-Larsson	1.4	0	0.46	0	9%	0
MTL P. Danault	1.4	1	0.44	1	14%	1
MTL J. Anderson	1.4	2	0.33	0	16%	0
MTL K. Guhle	1.3	1	0.33	1	10%	0
MTL J. Evans	1.2	4	0.44	1	14%	1
TOR T. Stecher	1.1	1	0.20	0	5%	0
TOR J. McCabe	1.1	1	0.35	0	6%	0
TOR B. Carlo	1.0	2	0.15	0	4%	0
TOR D. Joshua	0.9	1	0.32	0	16%	0
MTL A. Carrier	0.9	2	0.29	0	7%	0
TOR S. Lorentz	0.9	0	0.23	0	9%	0
TOR J. Quillan	0.7	1	0.12	0	8%	0
TOR S. Benoit	0.7	1	0.11	0	2%	0
TOR B. Groulx	0.7	2	0.10	0	6%	0
MTL A. Xhekaj	0.6	1	0.08	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.