Game Recap: TOR 2, NSH 5, March 22, 2025

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Game Recap

TOR2

FinalSat, Mar 22, 2025Every game that night

NSH5

NSH beat TOR 5-2, and the chances backed it up: 4.12 expected goals to 1.89. F. Forsberg led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). F. Forsberg had 10 shots on goal against our projection of 3.2. J. Saros stopped 24 of 26.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
TOR	2	0	0	2
NSH	0	3	2	5

1st 9:16TORJ. TavaresPP0.10 xG
1st 13:05TORM. Marner0.03 xG
2nd 1:39NSHM. BuntingPP0.21 xG
2nd 9:15NSHK. Bellows0.05 xG
2nd 19:13NSHF. Forsberg0.60 xG
3rd 10:17NSHL. Evangelista0.20 xG
3rd 19:23NSHF. ForsbergEN0.91 xG

Team Stats

TORNSH

26Shots on goal32

1.89Expected goals4.12

51Shot attempts65

185v5 shots on goal20

1/3Power play1/3

20Hits23

19Blocked shots11

6Penalty minutes6

6Giveaways11

6Takeaways2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

TOR 1.89 xGNSH 4.12 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

TOR26 on goal, 2 scored

NSH32 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

TOR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Matthews	C	0	2	2	3	1	0	-2	0	20:00	2:35
M. Marner	RW	1	1	2	2	0	0	-1	0	19:49	2:30
J. Tavares	C	1	0	1	2	1	3	-1	0	17:36	2:07
M. Knies	LW	0	0	0	3	2	1	-1	2	19:21	2:45
W. Nylander	RW	0	0	0	2	0	2	-1	0	18:11	2:30
B. McMann	C	0	0	0	3	3	0	0	0	15:27	1:26
M. Domi	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	2	14:37	1:41
N. Robertson	LW	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	14:23	2:04
D. Kampf	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	-1	0	12:24	0:00
P. Holmberg	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	11:27	0:00
S. Lorentz	C	0	0	0	1	4	0	-2	0	10:54	0:00
S. Laughton	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	-2	0	9:52	0:00
M. Rielly	D	0	0	0	1	0	3	-2	0	24:28	1:42
O. Ekman-Larsson	D	0	0	0	2	4	2	+1	0	22:23	1:35
J. McCabe	D	0	0	0	1	1	4	-2	0	19:17	0:00
C. Tanev	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-2	0	17:11	0:00
B. Carlo	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	15:21	0:00
S. Benoit	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	+1	2	14:50	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Woll	31	27	4	.871	56:50	Loss
A. Stolarz	0	0	0	–	0:00

NSH Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
F. Forsberg	LW	2	1	3	10	0	1	+3	0	19:00	4:30
L. Evangelista	RW	1	2	3	1	2	1	+2	2	15:12	1:10
F. Svechkov	C	0	2	2	0	1	0	0	0	11:23	1:07
M. McCarron	C	0	1	1	2	0	0	+2	0	16:23	0:00
C. Smith	RW	0	1	1	0	5	0	0	0	13:46	0:00
M. Bunting	LW	1	0	1	2	2	0	0	0	13:10	0:58
K. Bellows	LW	1	0	1	2	1	0	+1	2	9:33	0:23
R. O'Reilly	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	+2	0	20:22	4:29
J. Marchessault	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	15:59	4:31
S. Stamkos	C	0	0	0	3	4	1	0	0	15:47	4:29
Z. L'Heureux	LW	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	15:03	0:11
C. Sissons	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	14:48	0:00
N. Blankenburg	D	0	1	1	1	0	2	+1	2	23:15	4:42
S. Stastney	D	0	1	1	0	1	2	+1	0	17:13	0:02
B. Skjei	D	0	0	0	2	1	0	+1	0	22:10	0:56
J. Barron	D	0	0	0	0	3	1	+2	0	22:06	0:47
M. Del Gaizo	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	0	18:06	0:00
A. Englund	D	0	0	0	1	1	3	0	0	12:33	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Saros	26	24	2	.923	60:00	Win
J. Annunen	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamRyan O'Reilly NSH Faces TOR, his team until May 20231 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	TOR 3.1, NSH 3.1	TOR 2, NSH 5
Total goals	6.3	7
Shots on goal	TOR 27.1, NSH 31.2	TOR 26, NSH 32
Win chance	NSH 50%	NSH won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
TOR A. Matthews	3.7	3	1.11	2	42%	0
NSH F. Forsberg	3.2	10	0.96	3	35%	2
TOR W. Nylander	2.9	2	0.98	0	35%	0
NSH J. Marchessault	2.6	2	0.78	0	32%	0
TOR J. Tavares	2.5	2	0.84	1	30%	1
NSH S. Stamkos	2.3	3	0.87	0	34%	0
NSH B. Skjei	2.1	2	0.51	0	13%	0
NSH L. Evangelista	2.0	1	0.44	3	17%	1
TOR B. McMann	2.0	3	0.47	0	22%	0
NSH R. O'Reilly	1.9	1	0.72	0	25%	0
TOR M. Marner	1.9	2	1.07	2	27%	1
NSH M. Bunting	1.9	2	0.58	1	22%	1
TOR M. Knies	1.8	3	0.64	0	25%	0
NSH M. Gaizo	1.6	1	0.25	0	4%	0
TOR M. Rielly	1.5	1	0.57	0	10%	0
NSH N. Blankenburg	1.5	1	0.30	1	8%	0
TOR N. Robertson	1.4	0	0.34	0	16%	0
TOR S. Laughton	1.4	1	0.38	0	14%	0
TOR O. Ekman-Larsson	1.4	2	0.41	0	8%	0
NSH F. Svechkov	1.4	0	0.33	2	15%	0
TOR M. Domi	1.2	1	0.46	0	12%	0
NSH K. Bellows	1.2	2	0.25	1	11%	1
NSH M. McCarron	1.2	2	0.24	1	12%	0
NSH C. Sissons	1.2	2	0.36	0	13%	0
NSH J. Barron	1.2	0	0.28	0	9%	0
NSH C. Smith	1.1	0	0.24	1	10%	0
TOR J. McCabe	1.1	1	0.37	0	8%	0
NSH Z. L'Heureux	1.0	2	0.26	0	10%	0
TOR S. Lorentz	0.9	1	0.21	0	9%	0
TOR B. Carlo	0.9	1	0.19	0	6%	0
TOR P. Holmberg	0.9	0	0.26	0	10%	0
TOR D. Kampf	0.8	2	0.22	0	8%	0
NSH S. Stastney	0.8	0	0.20	1	5%	0
TOR C. Tanev	0.6	0	0.25	0	4%	0
NSH A. Englund	0.6	1	0.12	0	2%	0
TOR S. Benoit	0.6	1	0.11	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 28 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.