Game Recap: TOR 3, NSH 5, December 20, 2025

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Game Recap

TOR3

FinalSat, Dec 20, 2025Every game that night

NSH5

NSH beat TOR 5-3, and the chances backed it up: 4.67 expected goals to 2.52. NSH outshot TOR 34 to 22. S. Stamkos led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). M. Bunting had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.9. J. Saros stopped 19 of 22.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
TOR	1	1	1	3
NSH	0	2	3	5

1st 1:32TORN. Roy0.09 xG
2nd 4:56NSHE. HaulaPP0.13 xG
2nd 11:57TORJ. Tavares0.09 xG
2nd 19:26NSHA. Wilsby0.08 xG
3rd 9:18NSHL. Evangelista0.06 xG
3rd 18:25NSHS. StamkosEN0.95 xG
3rd 19:06TORB. McMann0.03 xG
3rd 19:51NSHC. SmithEN0.52 xG

Team Stats

TORNSH

22Shots on goal34

2.52Expected goals4.67

47Shot attempts72

205v5 shots on goal26

0/1Power play1/2

21Hits20

23Blocked shots12

6Penalty minutes4

16Giveaways12

2Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

TOR 2.52 xGNSH 4.67 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

TOR22 on goal, 3 scored

NSH34 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

TOR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. Robertson	LW	0	2	2	1	1	0	+2	0	12:36	1:05
B. McMann	C	1	1	2	3	0	0	+2	0	11:33	0:00
J. Tavares	C	1	0	1	2	2	0	-2	0	17:45	0:54
M. Maccelli	LW	0	1	1	2	0	1	-2	0	16:19	0:53
E. Cowan	RW	0	1	1	0	0	1	+1	0	16:17	1:07
N. Roy	C	1	0	1	2	1	1	+2	0	15:54	0:53
W. Nylander	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	-2	0	18:56	0:56
M. Knies	LW	0	0	0	1	0	2	-3	0	18:28	1:06
A. Matthews	C	0	0	0	3	0	1	-3	2	18:23	1:04
S. Laughton	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	+1	0	12:06	0:00
C. Jarnkrok	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	10:58	0:00
D. Joshua	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	10:35	0:00
J. McCabe	D	0	1	1	1	3	3	0	2	21:57	0:02
T. Stecher	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	22:22	0:00
O. Ekman-Larsson	D	0	0	0	0	3	3	-2	0	22:15	0:56
M. Rielly	D	0	0	0	2	1	6	0	0	19:19	1:04
S. Benoit	D	0	0	0	0	2	3	0	2	16:27	0:00
P. Myers	D	0	0	0	0	4	0	+1	0	14:07	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Woll	32	29	3	.906	58:23	Loss
D. Hildeby	0	0	0	–	0:00

NSH Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
S. Stamkos	C	1	1	2	4	1	0	-1	0	16:49	2:23
R. O'Reilly	C	0	1	1	3	0	0	+2	0	19:07	2:19
E. Haula	LW	1	0	1	5	0	3	-1	0	17:48	1:23
F. Forsberg	LW	0	1	1	2	1	0	+1	0	17:45	2:02
C. Smith	RW	1	0	1	1	7	0	0	2	15:16	0:00
L. Evangelista	RW	1	0	1	4	0	0	+1	0	15:01	1:57
M. McCarron	C	0	1	1	1	1	0	+1	0	14:25	0:00
M. Bunting	LW	0	0	0	6	1	0	+1	0	16:46	1:01
R. Schaefer	LW	0	0	0	0	3	1	-1	0	11:39	0:00
M. Wood	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	11:03	1:20
T. Jost	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	10:44	0:00
F. Svechkov	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	10:34	0:00
B. Skjei	D	0	2	2	2	0	3	+2	0	20:43	0:55
R. Josi	D	0	1	1	1	0	2	-1	0	21:35	2:20
A. Wilsby	D	1	0	1	2	2	0	0	0	19:56	0:00
N. Perbix	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	20:17	0:09
N. Hague	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	+1	2	18:28	0:00
N. Blankenburg	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	18:05	0:51

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Saros	22	19	3	.864	59:59	Win
J. Annunen	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

TOR

Line 1W. Nylander16:02M. Maccelli14:12J. Tavares14:49

Line 2M. Knies14:17E. Cowan14:47A. Matthews14:12

Line 3N. Roy13:13B. McMann10:44N. Robertson11:08

Line 4C. Jarnkrok9:26S. Laughton10:04D. Joshua10:11

Pair 1J. McCabe19:11T. Stecher19:14

Pair 2O. Ekman-Larsson19:38S. Benoit15:13

Pair 3M. Rielly15:32P. Myers13:17

NSH

Line 1E. Haula14:21M. Bunting15:45L. Evangelista13:03

Line 2C. Smith13:29M. McCarron12:20R. Schaefer11:39

Line 3R. O'Reilly13:52F. Forsberg13:52S. Stamkos13:49

Line 4F. Svechkov10:09M. Wood9:43T. Jost10:43

Pair 1R. Josi18:04N. Perbix17:35

Pair 2B. Skjei16:27A. Wilsby17:10

Pair 3N. Blankenburg16:09N. Hague17:00

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	TOR 3.0, NSH 2.9	TOR 3, NSH 5
Total goals	6.0	8
Shots on goal	TOR 26.2, NSH 30.7	TOR 22, NSH 34
Win chance	TOR 51%	NSH won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
TOR A. Matthews	3.7	3	1.10	0	42%	0
NSH F. Forsberg	3.4	2	0.89	1	34%	0
TOR J. Tavares	2.7	2	0.90	1	32%	1
NSH R. Josi	2.7	1	0.84	1	21%	0
TOR W. Nylander	2.5	2	1.06	0	35%	0
NSH L. Evangelista	2.5	4	0.61	1	18%	1
NSH S. Stamkos	2.5	4	0.77	2	32%	1
TOR M. Knies	2.2	1	0.84	0	27%	0
NSH R. O'Reilly	2.0	3	0.76	1	25%	0
NSH M. Bunting	1.9	6	0.51	0	20%	0
TOR B. McMann	1.8	3	0.40	2	19%	1
NSH E. Haula	1.7	5	0.44	1	17%	1
NSH B. Skjei	1.7	2	0.40	2	12%	0
TOR N. Robertson	1.7	1	0.41	2	19%	0
NSH M. Wood	1.7	1	0.43	0	17%	0
TOR E. Cowan	1.7	0	0.47	1	17%	0
TOR M. Rielly	1.6	2	0.64	0	12%	0
NSH N. Blankenburg	1.4	0	0.37	0	10%	0
TOR N. Roy	1.4	2	0.48	1	17%	1
NSH M. McCarron	1.3	1	0.23	1	11%	0
NSH F. Svechkov	1.3	1	0.30	0	11%	0
TOR O. Ekman-Larsson	1.3	0	0.45	0	9%	0
TOR M. Maccelli	1.3	2	0.47	1	14%	0
TOR S. Laughton	1.3	0	0.35	0	13%	0
NSH T. Jost	1.2	0	0.24	0	9%	0
NSH C. Smith	1.2	1	0.21	1	9%	1
TOR T. Stecher	1.1	0	0.22	0	6%	0
NSH N. Perbix	1.1	1	0.31	0	7%	0
NSH A. Wilsby	1.1	2	0.21	1	4%	1
NSH N. Hague	1.1	0	0.23	0	6%	0
NSH R. Schaefer	1.0	0	0.28	0	14%	0
TOR C. Jarnkrok	1.0	1	0.31	0	14%	0
TOR P. Myers	1.0	0	0.13	0	4%	0
TOR D. Joshua	1.0	2	0.34	0	16%	0
TOR J. McCabe	0.9	1	0.40	1	7%	0
TOR S. Benoit	0.7	0	0.13	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.