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Game Recap
TOR2
NYI1
TOR beat NYI 2-1, with the chances close: 2.96 expected goals to 3.33. B. McMann led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). B. Horvat had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 2.6. J. Woll stopped 32 of 33.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| NYI | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
- 2nd 10:43TORB. McMann0.13 xG
- 2nd 18:15NYIS. Mayfield0.07 xG
- 3rd 17:01TORB. McMannPP0.21 xG
Team Stats
TORNYI
31Shots on goal33
2.96Expected goals3.33
64Shot attempts70
295v5 shots on goal23
1/2Power play0/3
26Hits19
16Blocked shots14
4Penalty minutes4
14Giveaways20
4Takeaways8
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
TOR 2.96 xGNYI 3.33 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
TOR Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. McMann | C | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 15:01 | 1:20 |
| M. Domi | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 14:26 | 1:23 |
| N. Robertson | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:27 | 0:00 |
| M. Marner | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 23:43 | 2:55 |
| W. Nylander | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:16 | 3:06 |
| J. Tavares | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:57 | 2:20 |
| D. Kampf | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 18:50 | 0:00 |
| M. Knies | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:35 | 2:22 |
| M. Pacioretty | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:23 | 1:22 |
| C. Dewar | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:24 | 0:00 |
| S. Lorentz | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6:30 | 0:00 |
| R. Reaves | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5:11 | 0:00 |
| O. Ekman-Larsson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:25 | 1:23 |
| M. Rielly | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 23:34 | 2:19 |
| J. McCabe | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 21:33 | 0:00 |
| C. Tanev | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 19:28 | 0:00 |
| P. Myers | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 17:43 | 0:00 |
| S. Benoit | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 15:34 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Woll | 33 | 32 | 1 | .970 | 60:00 | Win |
| D. Hildeby | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
NYI Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Barzal | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 22:03 | 4:07 |
| B. Horvat | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 21:33 | 4:03 |
| A. Lee | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 20:15 | 3:57 |
| B. Nelson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 19:59 | 2:35 |
| A. Duclair | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 17:39 | 3:01 |
| K. Palmieri | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:50 | 2:28 |
| J. Pageau | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 16:48 | 1:24 |
| M. Tsyplakov | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:20 | 1:33 |
| C. Cizikas | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 12:09 | 0:00 |
| H. Fasching | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:13 | 0:00 |
| P. Engvall | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:09 | 0:00 |
| K. MacLean | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6:03 | 0:00 |
| A. Pelech | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 2 | 19:26 | 0:17 |
| S. Mayfield | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:28 | 0:00 |
| N. Dobson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 25:22 | 3:40 |
| R. Pulock | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 22:40 | 1:20 |
| A. Romanov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 20:07 | 0:00 |
| I. George | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:07 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| I. Sorokin | 31 | 29 | 2 | .935 | 58:07 | Loss |
| M. Hogberg | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | TOR 3.2, NYI 3.1 | TOR 2, NYI 1 |
| Total goals | 6.2 | 3 |
| Shots on goal | TOR 29.0, NYI 30.0 | TOR 31, NYI 33 |
| Win chance | TOR 51% | TOR won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR W. Nylander | 3.3 | 2 | 1.09 | 0 | 38% | 0 |
| TOR J. Tavares | 3.0 | 1 | 0.90 | 0 | 32% | 0 |
| NYI B. Horvat | 2.6 | 7 | 0.73 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| NYI M. Barzal | 2.5 | 4 | 0.83 | 1 | 23% | 0 |
| NYI A. Lee | 2.4 | 2 | 0.61 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| NYI B. Nelson | 2.4 | 2 | 0.76 | 0 | 32% | 0 |
| NYI N. Dobson | 2.3 | 3 | 0.63 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| TOR B. McMann | 2.2 | 6 | 0.47 | 2 | 23% | 2 |
| NYI K. Palmieri | 2.2 | 2 | 0.65 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| TOR M. Marner | 2.1 | 1 | 1.12 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| TOR M. Pacioretty | 2.0 | 5 | 0.55 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| TOR M. Rielly | 1.9 | 2 | 0.63 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| TOR M. Knies | 1.7 | 3 | 0.55 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| NYI A. Duclair | 1.6 | 0 | 0.59 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| NYI J. Pageau | 1.6 | 1 | 0.49 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| TOR O. Ekman-Larsson | 1.6 | 1 | 0.38 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| TOR M. Domi | 1.5 | 3 | 0.51 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| TOR N. Robertson | 1.4 | 1 | 0.35 | 1 | 16% | 0 |
| NYI A. Pelech | 1.4 | 4 | 0.30 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| TOR P. Myers | 1.4 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| NYI M. Tsyplakov | 1.3 | 0 | 0.45 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| NYI A. Romanov | 1.3 | 2 | 0.27 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| NYI R. Pulock | 1.3 | 1 | 0.32 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| NYI P. Engvall | 1.2 | 1 | 0.32 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| TOR J. McCabe | 1.1 | 0 | 0.34 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| TOR D. Kampf | 1.0 | 2 | 0.26 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| TOR C. Dewar | 0.9 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| NYI C. Cizikas | 0.9 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| TOR S. Lorentz | 0.8 | 1 | 0.18 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| NYI S. Mayfield | 0.8 | 2 | 0.18 | 1 | 4% | 1 |
| NYI I. George | 0.7 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| NYI K. MacLean | 0.7 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| TOR S. Benoit | 0.7 | 1 | 0.11 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| NYI H. Fasching | 0.7 | 2 | 0.19 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| TOR C. Tanev | 0.6 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| TOR R. Reaves | 0.5 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.