Game Recap: TOR 3, NYI 4 (OT), January 3, 2026

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Game Recap

TOR3

Final/OTSat, Jan 3, 2026Every game that night

NYI4

NYI beat TOR 4-3 in overtime, with the chances close: 2.29 expected goals to 2.74. A. Matthews led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). D. Rittich stopped 18 of 21.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
TOR	0	2	1	0	3
NYI	0	1	2	1	4

2nd 1:10NYIA. Pelech0.02 xG
2nd 9:30TORA. Matthews0.21 xG
2nd 17:19TORA. Matthews0.15 xG
3rd 11:10NYIM. Schaefer0.25 xG
3rd 12:12TORN. Robertson0.20 xG
3rd 17:15NYIE. Heineman0.07 xG
OT 4:11NYIM. Schaefer0.23 xG

Team Stats

TORNYI

21Shots on goal25

2.74Expected goals2.29

54Shot attempts58

195v5 shots on goal21

0/1Power play0/1

19Hits21

11Blocked shots11

4Penalty minutes4

17Giveaways16

2Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

TOR 2.74 xGNYI 2.29 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

TOR21 on goal, 3 scored

NYI25 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

TOR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Matthews	C	2	0	2	6	0	2	0	0	22:29	1:11
B. McMann	C	0	1	1	0	0	2	0	0	20:17	0:48
M. Domi	C	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	2	17:21	0:40
N. Robertson	LW	1	0	1	2	0	0	+1	0	12:02	0:45
N. Roy	C	0	1	1	2	1	0	+1	0	11:42	0:41
M. Knies	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-2	0	19:03	1:12
J. Tavares	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-2	2	17:04	1:14
M. Maccelli	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	16:55	1:12
S. Laughton	C	0	0	0	3	2	1	0	0	14:20	0:05
S. Lorentz	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	12:05	0:04
E. Cowan	RW	0	0	0	1	4	0	+1	0	11:58	0:00
C. Jarnkrok	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	10:42	0:00
M. Rielly	D	0	0	0	1	2	0	-4	0	27:31	1:18
O. Ekman-Larsson	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	+2	0	26:40	0:42
T. Stecher	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	22:07	0:00
J. McCabe	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	+2	0	18:07	0:08
S. Benoit	D	0	0	0	0	7	1	0	0	15:44	0:00
M. Benning	D	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	12:26	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Woll	25	21	4	.840	64:11	OT loss
D. Hildeby	0	0	0	–	0:00

NYI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Barzal	C	0	2	2	2	0	1	+1	2	22:49	1:12
E. Heineman	LW	1	1	2	2	2	0	-1	0	20:11	0:56
J. Drouin	LW	0	2	2	1	0	1	+2	0	18:56	1:08
J. Pageau	C	0	1	1	2	1	1	+1	0	18:30	0:12
S. Holmstrom	RW	0	0	0	3	0	1	+2	0	18:45	0:45
A. Lee	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	15:34	0:52
M. Shabanov	RW	0	0	0	2	1	0	-1	0	15:04	0:52
M. Gatcomb	C	0	0	0	1	7	2	0	0	13:16	0:00
C. Cizikas	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	13:12	0:00
K. MacLean	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	10:15	0:00
M. Tsyplakov	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	10:10	0:48
C. Ritchie	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	9:10	0:00
M. Schaefer	D	2	0	2	2	1	1	+1	0	22:11	1:06
A. Pelech	D	1	0	1	2	1	1	+1	0	24:04	0:00
T. DeAngelo	D	0	1	1	2	0	0	+3	0	22:42	0:54
R. Pulock	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	2	19:45	0:17
S. Mayfield	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	-2	0	19:09	0:00
C. McWard	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	-2	0	14:50	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Rittich	21	18	3	.857	64:11	Win
I. Sorokin	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

TOR

Line 1A. Matthews18:38B. McMann17:59M. Domi15:15

Line 2J. Tavares14:37M. Knies16:03M. Maccelli14:21

Line 3S. Laughton12:57S. Lorentz11:35C. Jarnkrok10:25

Line 4E. Cowan11:58N. Roy10:26N. Robertson10:24

Pair 1O. Ekman-Larsson24:43J. McCabe16:27

Pair 2M. Rielly22:16T. Stecher19:26

Pair 3M. Benning12:21S. Benoit14:59

NYI

Line 1M. Barzal18:31E. Heineman15:47A. Lee14:42

Line 2J. Drouin16:20S. Holmstrom15:13J. Pageau16:04

Line 3C. Cizikas12:34M. Gatcomb13:16K. MacLean10:15

Line 4M. Shabanov13:26M. Tsyplakov9:22C. Ritchie9:10

Pair 1A. Pelech20:59T. DeAngelo20:24

Pair 2R. Pulock18:06M. Schaefer17:31

Pair 3S. Mayfield18:20C. McWard14:50

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamMatias Maccelli NYI Faces TOR, his team until Apr 20261 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	TOR 3.0, NYI 3.0	TOR 3, NYI 4
Total goals	6.0	7
Shots on goal	TOR 26.3, NYI 30.9	TOR 21, NYI 25
Win chance	NYI 52%	NYI won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
TOR A. Matthews	3.6	6	0.98	2	40%	2
NYI M. Schaefer	2.7	2	0.66	2	18%	2
NYI M. Barzal	2.5	2	0.84	2	23%	0
TOR J. Tavares	2.5	1	0.80	0	30%	0
NYI A. Lee	2.4	1	0.53	0	23%	0
NYI E. Heineman	2.2	2	0.53	2	25%	1
TOR B. McMann	2.2	0	0.46	1	22%	0
TOR M. Knies	1.9	0	0.67	0	24%	0
NYI T. DeAngelo	1.9	2	0.46	1	10%	0
TOR M. Domi	1.7	0	0.55	1	15%	0
TOR M. Rielly	1.7	1	0.60	0	10%	0
TOR N. Robertson	1.7	2	0.39	1	18%	1
NYI A. Pelech	1.6	2	0.30	1	5%	1
TOR E. Cowan	1.6	1	0.37	0	14%	0
NYI J. Drouin	1.5	1	0.64	2	16%	0
NYI R. Pulock	1.4	1	0.38	0	7%	0
NYI C. Ritchie	1.4	2	0.37	0	17%	0
TOR M. Maccelli	1.4	1	0.51	0	16%	0
TOR O. Ekman-Larsson	1.4	0	0.41	0	8%	0
TOR S. Laughton	1.3	3	0.33	0	14%	0
NYI M. Shabanov	1.3	2	0.45	0	14%	0
NYI S. Holmstrom	1.3	3	0.51	0	21%	0
TOR N. Roy	1.2	2	0.41	1	16%	0
NYI M. Gatcomb	1.2	1	0.22	0	13%	0
NYI J. Pageau	1.2	2	0.43	1	14%	0
NYI M. Tsyplakov	1.2	0	0.28	0	10%	0
NYI C. Cizikas	1.1	0	0.25	0	10%	0
TOR S. Lorentz	1.1	2	0.26	0	11%	0
TOR T. Stecher	1.1	1	0.19	0	5%	0
NYI C. McWard	1.0	0	0.18	0	6%	0
NYI S. Mayfield	1.0	1	0.18	0	5%	0
TOR C. Jarnkrok	1.0	0	0.26	0	13%	0
NYI K. MacLean	0.9	1	0.18	0	8%	0
TOR J. McCabe	0.9	1	0.36	0	6%	0
TOR S. Benoit	0.6	0	0.11	0	2%	0
TOR M. Benning	0.6	0	0.16	0	1%	0

Shots on goal: 24 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.