TOR beat NYR 3-2 despite fewer good chances: 2.53 expected goals to 3.14. NYR outshot TOR 35 to 16. M. Zibanejad led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). S. Carrick had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.1. A. Stolarz stopped 33 of 35.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| NYR | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
- 1st 1:47TORO. Ekman-LarssonPP0.14 xG
- 1st 13:08NYRM. Zibanejad0.17 xG
- 2nd 0:51TORW. Nylander0.18 xG
- 3rd 3:47NYRW. CuylleSH0.16 xG
- 3rd 6:21TORM. Knies0.27 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
TOR 2.53 xGNYR 3.14 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
TOR Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Marner | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 23:58 | 4:43 |
| A. Matthews | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 21:56 | 4:38 |
| W. Nylander | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 19:03 | 4:29 |
| M. Knies | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 18:07 | 4:31 |
| M. Domi | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:02 | 2:27 |
| J. Tavares | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 18:06 | 4:04 |
| D. Kampf | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:47 | 0:16 |
| P. Holmberg | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:15 | 0:00 |
| B. McMann | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 12:48 | 2:27 |
| N. Robertson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 12:27 | 2:45 |
| R. Reaves | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:02 | 0:13 |
| S. Lorentz | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:16 | 0:14 |
| M. Rielly | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:55 | 2:11 |
| O. Ekman-Larsson | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 16:11 | 2:43 |
| J. McCabe | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | +2 | 0 | 23:08 | 0:06 |
| S. Benoit | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 4 | -1 | 0 | 18:55 | 0:00 |
| P. Myers | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 18:28 | 0:18 |
| C. Timmins | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 14:36 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Stolarz | 35 | 33 | 2 | .943 | 60:00 | Win |
| J. Woll | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
NYR Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Zibanejad | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 24:44 | 4:25 |
| J. Miller | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:42 | 4:30 |
| W. Cuylle | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 16:05 | 1:18 |
| V. Trocheck | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 25:52 | 4:25 |
| A. Panarin | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 24:04 | 4:25 |
| A. Lafrenière | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:20 | 3:30 |
| R. Smith | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:58 | 1:15 |
| S. Carrick | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 13:14 | 0:00 |
| J. Vesey | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 8:52 | 0:01 |
| J. Brodzinski | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7:31 | 1:14 |
| B. Othmann | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6:31 | 0:01 |
| M. Rempe | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4:12 | 0:00 |
| W. Borgen | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:54 | 0:00 |
| K. Miller | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 23:30 | 1:54 |
| R. Lindgren | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 18:40 | 0:00 |
| U. Vaakanainen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:41 | 0:00 |
| B. Schneider | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:12 | 0:00 |
| Z. Jones | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 15:54 | 1:42 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| I. Shesterkin | 16 | 13 | 3 | .813 | 57:35 | Loss |
| J. Quick | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | TOR 3.0, NYR 3.1 | TOR 3, NYR 2 |
| Total goals | 6.1 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | TOR 29.0, NYR 29.3 | TOR 16, NYR 35 |
| Win chance | NYR 52% | TOR won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR A. Matthews | 4.2 | 2 | 1.12 | 1 | 43% | 0 |
| TOR W. Nylander | 3.5 | 2 | 1.00 | 1 | 36% | 1 |
| TOR J. Tavares | 3.1 | 1 | 0.87 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| NYR A. Panarin | 2.8 | 3 | 1.04 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| TOR B. McMann | 2.5 | 0 | 0.48 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| NYR V. Trocheck | 2.4 | 4 | 0.72 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| TOR M. Marner | 2.4 | 2 | 1.15 | 1 | 28% | 0 |
| NYR M. Zibanejad | 2.3 | 3 | 0.78 | 2 | 25% | 1 |
| NYR A. Lafrenière | 2.1 | 1 | 0.55 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| NYR J. Miller | 2.1 | 2 | 0.92 | 1 | 27% | 0 |
| TOR M. Rielly | 1.8 | 0 | 0.59 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| TOR M. Knies | 1.8 | 1 | 0.60 | 1 | 24% | 1 |
| NYR W. Cuylle | 1.8 | 3 | 0.40 | 1 | 19% | 1 |
| TOR N. Robertson | 1.7 | 1 | 0.34 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| NYR R. Smith | 1.7 | 1 | 0.52 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| TOR M. Domi | 1.6 | 0 | 0.49 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| TOR O. Ekman-Larsson | 1.6 | 2 | 0.39 | 1 | 6% | 1 |
| NYR J. Brodzinski | 1.5 | 1 | 0.33 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| NYR B. Schneider | 1.4 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| NYR J. Vesey | 1.3 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| NYR K. Miller | 1.3 | 3 | 0.32 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| TOR P. Myers | 1.3 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| NYR W. Borgen | 1.3 | 1 | 0.24 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| TOR J. McCabe | 1.2 | 0 | 0.34 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| NYR Z. Jones | 1.2 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| TOR P. Holmberg | 1.2 | 1 | 0.32 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| NYR S. Carrick | 1.1 | 4 | 0.25 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| TOR S. Lorentz | 1.0 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| NYR R. Lindgren | 1.0 | 2 | 0.33 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| NYR U. Vaakanainen | 0.9 | 2 | 0.24 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| TOR D. Kampf | 0.9 | 2 | 0.21 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| TOR C. Timmins | 0.9 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| NYR M. Rempe | 0.9 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| TOR S. Benoit | 0.7 | 0 | 0.08 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| TOR R. Reaves | 0.5 | 0 | 0.11 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 18 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.