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Game Recap
TOR4
NYR3
TOR beat NYR 4-3, with the chances close: 2.34 expected goals to 2.17. J. Tavares led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). A. Stolarz stopped 27 of 30.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 |
| NYR | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
- 1st 12:30TORJ. Tavares0.05 xG
- 1st 19:12NYRW. Borgen0.02 xG
- 1st 19:50TORB. McMann0.10 xG
- 2nd 1:22NYRA. Panarin0.13 xG
- 2nd 4:16TORJ. Tavares0.15 xG
- 2nd 14:26TORM. Knies0.18 xG
- 3rd 19:25NYRC. Kreider0.09 xG
Team Stats
TORNYR
28Shots on goal30
2.34Expected goals2.17
49Shot attempts64
275v5 shots on goal25
0/1Power play0/1
27Hits33
20Blocked shots10
2Penalty minutes2
11Giveaways21
2Takeaways4
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
TOR 2.34 xGNYR 2.17 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
TOR Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Tavares | C | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 19:42 | 0:58 |
| W. Nylander | RW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +4 | 0 | 19:28 | 1:09 |
| B. McMann | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 17:59 | 0:48 |
| M. Knies | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 15:13 | 0:57 |
| M. Marner | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 17:35 | 1:11 |
| A. Matthews | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:35 | 1:15 |
| D. Kampf | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:28 | 0:00 |
| S. Laughton | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:24 | 0:00 |
| S. Lorentz | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:51 | 0:00 |
| N. Robertson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:14 | 0:51 |
| P. Holmberg | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 10:43 | 0:00 |
| M. Domi | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 10:31 | 0:46 |
| J. McCabe | D | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 22:23 | 0:15 |
| O. Ekman-Larsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 21:25 | 0:54 |
| C. Tanev | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | +2 | 0 | 19:54 | 0:07 |
| M. Rielly | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 19:39 | 0:49 |
| B. Carlo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 19:14 | 0:00 |
| S. Benoit | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:42 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Stolarz | 30 | 27 | 3 | .900 | 60:00 | Win |
| J. Woll | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
NYR Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Panarin | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:41 | 2:00 |
| V. Trocheck | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:18 | 1:51 |
| C. Kreider | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:21 | 0:00 |
| J. Brodzinski | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:39 | 0:09 |
| J. Miller | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -1 | 0 | 21:57 | 1:54 |
| M. Zibanejad | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:53 | 1:51 |
| A. Lafrenière | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 16:51 | 0:06 |
| W. Cuylle | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:35 | 0:00 |
| S. Carrick | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:26 | 0:00 |
| B. Othmann | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6:44 | 0:00 |
| J. Parssinen | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6:39 | 0:00 |
| B. Berard | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6:35 | 0:00 |
| A. Fox | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 24:26 | 1:56 |
| W. Borgen | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:55 | 0:09 |
| C. Soucy | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 16:01 | 0:00 |
| K. Miller | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -3 | 2 | 21:16 | 0:04 |
| Z. Jones | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:55 | 0:00 |
| B. Schneider | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:17 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| I. Shesterkin | 28 | 24 | 4 | .857 | 57:31 | Loss |
| J. Quick | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | TOR 2.8, NYR 3.3 | TOR 4, NYR 3 |
| Total goals | 6.1 | 7 |
| Shots on goal | TOR 27.3, NYR 29.4 | TOR 28, NYR 30 |
| Win chance | NYR 58% | TOR won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR A. Matthews | 3.9 | 3 | 1.05 | 0 | 41% | 0 |
| NYR A. Panarin | 3.0 | 2 | 1.23 | 2 | 36% | 1 |
| TOR W. Nylander | 3.0 | 3 | 0.89 | 2 | 33% | 0 |
| NYR M. Zibanejad | 2.5 | 2 | 0.93 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| TOR J. Tavares | 2.5 | 4 | 0.73 | 3 | 27% | 2 |
| NYR V. Trocheck | 2.4 | 3 | 0.82 | 2 | 27% | 0 |
| NYR C. Kreider | 2.3 | 2 | 0.64 | 1 | 34% | 1 |
| NYR J. Miller | 2.0 | 1 | 1.07 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| TOR M. Marner | 2.0 | 1 | 1.01 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| NYR W. Cuylle | 1.9 | 2 | 0.50 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| TOR M. Knies | 1.9 | 4 | 0.61 | 1 | 24% | 1 |
| TOR B. McMann | 1.8 | 4 | 0.38 | 2 | 19% | 1 |
| NYR A. Lafrenière | 1.8 | 2 | 0.57 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| NYR A. Fox | 1.6 | 2 | 0.83 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| TOR N. Robertson | 1.5 | 1 | 0.31 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| TOR M. Rielly | 1.4 | 1 | 0.48 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| TOR S. Laughton | 1.4 | 2 | 0.35 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| NYR J. Brodzinski | 1.4 | 3 | 0.31 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| NYR K. Miller | 1.4 | 2 | 0.38 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| TOR O. Ekman-Larsson | 1.4 | 1 | 0.34 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| TOR M. Domi | 1.3 | 2 | 0.44 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| NYR B. Schneider | 1.2 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| NYR B. Berard | 1.2 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| NYR Z. Jones | 1.2 | 2 | 0.30 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| NYR S. Carrick | 1.2 | 2 | 0.30 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| TOR J. McCabe | 1.1 | 0 | 0.28 | 3 | 5% | 0 |
| NYR W. Borgen | 1.1 | 2 | 0.25 | 1 | 5% | 1 |
| NYR B. Othmann | 1.0 | 1 | 0.11 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| TOR P. Holmberg | 0.9 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| TOR S. Lorentz | 0.9 | 1 | 0.18 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| TOR B. Carlo | 0.9 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| TOR D. Kampf | 0.8 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| NYR C. Soucy | 0.8 | 2 | 0.18 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| NYR J. Parssinen | 0.7 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| TOR C. Tanev | 0.6 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| TOR S. Benoit | 0.6 | 0 | 0.09 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 27 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.