Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!
Game Recap
TOR1
OTT2
OTT beat TOR 2-1, with the chances close: 2.53 expected goals to 2.30. B. McMann had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 2.6. A. Forsberg stopped 28 of 29.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| OTT | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
- 1st 3:46TORB. McMann0.17 xG
- 1st 10:43OTTT. StützlePP0.15 xG
- 3rd 10:47OTTS. Pinto0.25 xG
Team Stats
TOROTT
29Shots on goal23
2.30Expected goals2.53
62Shot attempts47
275v5 shots on goal18
0/1Power play1/2
19Hits24
13Blocked shots16
6Penalty minutes4
21Giveaways17
3Takeaways5
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
TOR 2.30 xGOTT 2.53 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
TOR Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Marner | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 22:28 | 1:20 |
| B. McMann | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:34 | 1:08 |
| A. Matthews | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22:47 | 1:08 |
| W. Nylander | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22:34 | 2:00 |
| D. Kampf | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 16:27 | 0:00 |
| M. Domi | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16:01 | 1:08 |
| P. Holmberg | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15:58 | 0:00 |
| N. Robertson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:39 | 0:40 |
| S. Lorentz | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:05 | 0:00 |
| R. Reaves | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6:01 | 0:00 |
| F. Minten | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5:43 | 0:52 |
| J. Quillan | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5:21 | 0:00 |
| O. Ekman-Larsson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 23:38 | 0:51 |
| M. Rielly | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 23:49 | 0:52 |
| J. McCabe | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 22:40 | 0:00 |
| C. Tanev | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 19:53 | 0:01 |
| S. Benoit | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:50 | 0:00 |
| P. Myers | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:33 | 0:00 |
OTT Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Pinto | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 20:12 | 0:48 |
| T. Stützle | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:17 | 2:21 |
| C. Giroux | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:34 | 2:18 |
| M. Highmore | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 15:38 | 0:00 |
| D. Batherson | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 19:19 | 2:20 |
| B. Tkachuk | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 19:14 | 1:15 |
| M. Amadio | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 19:12 | 0:00 |
| R. Greig | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 17:24 | 0:43 |
| Z. Ostapchuk | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:38 | 0:02 |
| D. Perron | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 9:52 | 0:41 |
| A. Gaudette | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5:21 | 0:46 |
| N. Cousins | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1:20 | 0:00 |
| T. Chabot | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 23:44 | 0:56 |
| J. Sanderson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 23:38 | 2:10 |
| A. Zub | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 23:47 | 0:04 |
| T. Hamonic | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 22:08 | 0:00 |
| T. Kleven | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 12:47 | 0:00 |
| N. Matinpalo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:24 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Forsberg | 29 | 28 | 1 | .966 | 59:31 | Win |
| L. Meriläinen | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | TOR 3.0, OTT 2.9 | TOR 1, OTT 2 |
| Total goals | 6.0 | 3 |
| Shots on goal | TOR 27.2, OTT 29.8 | TOR 29, OTT 23 |
| Win chance | TOR 52% | OTT won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT B. Tkachuk | 4.0 | 2 | 0.89 | 0 | 34% | 0 |
| TOR A. Matthews | 3.7 | 1 | 1.07 | 0 | 45% | 0 |
| TOR W. Nylander | 3.3 | 4 | 1.01 | 0 | 38% | 0 |
| TOR B. McMann | 2.6 | 7 | 0.56 | 1 | 27% | 1 |
| OTT S. Pinto | 2.3 | 2 | 0.55 | 1 | 23% | 1 |
| OTT D. Batherson | 2.3 | 2 | 0.82 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| OTT T. Chabot | 2.1 | 0 | 0.53 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| OTT T. Stützle | 2.1 | 4 | 0.92 | 1 | 28% | 1 |
| TOR M. Marner | 2.1 | 1 | 1.16 | 1 | 29% | 0 |
| OTT J. Sanderson | 2.0 | 2 | 0.49 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| OTT C. Giroux | 1.9 | 3 | 0.70 | 1 | 23% | 0 |
| OTT D. Perron | 1.8 | 0 | 0.51 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| TOR M. Rielly | 1.6 | 0 | 0.55 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| TOR O. Ekman-Larsson | 1.6 | 1 | 0.41 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| TOR N. Robertson | 1.6 | 2 | 0.37 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| OTT R. Greig | 1.5 | 0 | 0.40 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| TOR M. Domi | 1.5 | 3 | 0.50 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| OTT N. Cousins | 1.4 | 1 | 0.31 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| OTT T. Hamonic | 1.3 | 2 | 0.20 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| OTT A. Zub | 1.2 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| TOR P. Myers | 1.2 | 2 | 0.17 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| OTT A. Gaudette | 1.2 | 1 | 0.31 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| OTT M. Amadio | 1.1 | 2 | 0.34 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| OTT N. Matinpalo | 1.1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| OTT T. Kleven | 1.1 | 1 | 0.14 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| OTT M. Highmore | 1.1 | 0 | 0.25 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| TOR J. McCabe | 1.0 | 2 | 0.32 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| TOR F. Minten | 1.0 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| TOR P. Holmberg | 0.9 | 2 | 0.27 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| TOR D. Kampf | 0.9 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| TOR S. Lorentz | 0.8 | 2 | 0.18 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| TOR C. Tanev | 0.7 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| TOR S. Benoit | 0.7 | 1 | 0.09 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| OTT Z. Ostapchuk | 0.5 | 0 | 0.12 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| TOR R. Reaves | 0.4 | 0 | 0.12 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 19 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.