Game Recap: TOR 5, PHI 2, November 1, 2025

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Game Recap

TOR5

FinalSat, Nov 1, 2025Every game that night

PHI2

TOR beat PHI 5-2, with the chances close: 3.38 expected goals to 2.96. N. Robertson led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). N. Cates had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.7. A. Stolarz stopped 31 of 33.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
TOR	1	2	2	5
PHI	1	0	1	2

1st 1:09PHIC. Dvorak0.17 xG
1st 6:16TORA. Matthews0.07 xG
2nd 8:14TORJ. McCabe0.02 xG
2nd 17:34TORN. Robertson0.08 xG
3rd 0:33TORE. Cowan0.09 xG
3rd 16:08PHIT. FoersterPP0.15 xG
3rd 19:42TORC. JarnkrokEN0.63 xG

Team Stats

TORPHI

27Shots on goal33

3.38Expected goals2.96

50Shot attempts72

225v5 shots on goal20

0/3Power play1/6

20Hits17

20Blocked shots11

10Penalty minutes6

15Giveaways16

0Takeaways1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

TOR 3.38 xGPHI 2.96 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

TOR27 on goal, 5 scored

PHI33 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

TOR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Tavares	C	0	2	2	4	2	0	0	0	17:01	3:51
N. Robertson	LW	1	1	2	1	0	2	+2	0	15:20	2:00
A. Matthews	C	1	0	1	5	1	0	+3	0	20:19	4:01
M. Knies	LW	0	1	1	0	2	0	+2	0	20:04	3:56
D. Joshua	C	0	1	1	0	2	3	+2	0	14:28	0:09
M. Maccelli	LW	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	0	12:45	1:50
E. Cowan	RW	1	0	1	4	1	0	0	0	12:39	2:30
C. Jarnkrok	C	1	0	1	1	3	0	+1	2	11:08	0:09
N. Roy	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	+1	0	16:51	0:55
M. Domi	C	0	0	0	3	0	1	0	2	12:14	3:09
B. McMann	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	11:43	0:29
S. Blais	LW	0	0	0	1	5	1	0	0	10:09	0:39
S. Benoit	D	0	1	1	0	3	5	+1	2	21:02	0:00
M. Rielly	D	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	0	19:57	3:30
J. McCabe	D	1	0	1	2	0	0	+3	2	18:25	0:24
C. Tanev	D	0	1	1	0	0	0	+2	0	14:50	0:11
B. Carlo	D	0	0	0	2	0	5	+2	0	24:00	0:11
O. Ekman-Larsson	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	2	16:48	2:06

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Stolarz	33	31	2	.939	60:00	Win
C. Primeau	0	0	0	–	0:00

PHI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. Dvorak	C	1	0	1	2	1	0	-1	0	20:39	4:55
T. Zegras	C	0	1	1	5	0	0	-3	0	20:25	6:18
T. Konecny	RW	0	1	1	2	3	1	-1	4	18:40	5:58
T. Foerster	RW	1	0	1	2	2	1	-1	0	18:17	5:17
M. Michkov	RW	0	1	1	2	1	0	-3	2	15:52	5:52
N. Grebenkin	RW	0	1	1	0	4	0	0	0	10:44	0:02
O. Tippett	RW	0	0	0	2	2	1	-2	0	17:08	4:52
N. Cates	LW	0	0	0	5	0	0	-1	0	16:27	5:09
B. Brink	RW	0	0	0	3	0	0	-2	0	16:05	4:12
G. Hathaway	RW	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	11:21	0:01
J. Gaucher	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	11:09	0:06
R. Abols	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	11:08	0:04
T. Sanheim	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	-3	0	24:07	2:09
C. York	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	-2	0	23:59	3:59
J. Drysdale	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	18:08	4:15
N. Seeler	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	-1	0	16:58	0:02
N. Juulsen	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	14:16	0:01
E. Zamula	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	12:23	0:01

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Vladar	19	15	4	.789	40:33	Loss
A. Kolosov	7	7	0	1.000	15:41

Lines at 5-on-5

TOR

Line 1N. Robertson12:09M. Knies11:18A. Matthews10:53

Line 2J. Tavares12:32B. McMann9:56E. Cowan9:42

Line 3D. Joshua11:21N. Roy10:29M. Maccelli10:21

Line 4M. Domi9:05S. Blais9:30C. Jarnkrok7:35

Pair 1M. Rielly15:08B. Carlo16:18

Pair 2C. Tanev11:15J. McCabe13:48

Pair 3O. Ekman-Larsson13:13S. Benoit14:12

PHI

Line 1C. Dvorak12:27T. Konecny11:02N. Grebenkin10:42

Line 2T. Zegras11:58O. Tippett10:44M. Michkov9:13

Line 3B. Brink11:20T. Foerster10:14N. Cates9:16

Line 4R. Abols9:49J. Gaucher9:37G. Hathaway8:40

Pair 1T. Sanheim17:22C. York15:20

Pair 2N. Seeler14:42J. Drysdale13:05

Pair 3N. Juulsen11:28E. Zamula11:46

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	TOR 3.3, PHI 2.8	TOR 5, PHI 2
Total goals	6.1	7
Shots on goal	TOR 25.7, PHI 26.9	TOR 27, PHI 33
Win chance	TOR 57%	TOR won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
TOR A. Matthews	3.8	5	1.16	1	45%	1
PHI O. Tippett	2.8	2	0.61	0	25%	0
TOR J. Tavares	2.5	4	0.86	2	32%	0
PHI M. Michkov	2.3	2	0.70	1	22%	0
PHI T. Konecny	2.3	2	0.81	1	27%	0
TOR M. Knies	2.1	0	0.80	1	29%	0
PHI T. Foerster	2.1	2	0.60	1	26%	1
TOR B. McMann	2.0	1	0.45	0	22%	0
PHI T. Zegras	1.9	5	0.71	1	22%	0
TOR N. Robertson	1.7	1	0.41	2	20%	1
PHI N. Cates	1.7	5	0.55	0	19%	0
PHI T. Sanheim	1.7	0	0.43	0	11%	0
TOR M. Rielly	1.6	1	0.64	1	12%	0
PHI B. Brink	1.6	3	0.59	0	18%	0
PHI N. Seeler	1.3	1	0.27	0	5%	0
TOR M. Maccelli	1.3	1	0.47	1	15%	0
TOR E. Cowan	1.3	4	0.38	1	12%	1
TOR M. Domi	1.3	3	0.47	0	14%	0
PHI C. Dvorak	1.3	2	0.43	1	15%	1
PHI J. Drysdale	1.3	0	0.39	0	10%	0
TOR O. Ekman-Larsson	1.3	0	0.41	0	8%	0
TOR N. Roy	1.2	1	0.41	0	16%	0
PHI C. York	1.2	1	0.38	0	9%	0
PHI R. Abols	1.1	3	0.20	0	9%	0
TOR B. Carlo	1.1	2	0.19	0	5%	0
TOR D. Joshua	1.0	0	0.34	1	16%	0
TOR J. McCabe	0.9	2	0.35	1	6%	1
PHI G. Hathaway	0.9	2	0.21	0	10%	0
TOR C. Jarnkrok	0.9	1	0.29	1	13%	1
TOR S. Blais	0.8	1	0.26	0	9%	0
TOR S. Benoit	0.7	0	0.14	1	3%	0
PHI N. Juulsen	0.6	0	0.09	0	2%	0
PHI E. Zamula	0.6	1	0.21	0	4%	0
TOR C. Tanev	0.5	0	0.20	1	4%	0
PHI N. Grebenkin	0.4	0	0.14	1	7%	0

Shots on goal: 20 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.