Game Recap: TOR 3, SEA 1, February 6, 2025

Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!

Game Recap

TOR3

FinalThu, Feb 6, 2025Every game that night

SEA1

TOR beat SEA 3-1, with the chances close: 3.26 expected goals to 2.72. B. Montour had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.6. A. Stolarz stopped 26 of 27.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
TOR	2	1	0	3
SEA	0	0	1	1

1st 7:23TORP. Myers0.01 xG
1st 18:53TORB. McMannPP0.08 xG
2nd 12:37TORM. Knies0.08 xG
3rd 5:43SEAE. Tolvanen0.03 xG

Team Stats

TORSEA

30Shots on goal27

3.26Expected goals2.72

55Shot attempts71

225v5 shots on goal16

1/3Power play0/5

14Hits15

19Blocked shots11

13Penalty minutes11

14Giveaways14

1Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

TOR 3.26 xGSEA 2.72 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

TOR29 on goal, 3 scored

SEA26 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

TOR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Marner	RW	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	0	25:08	4:12
A. Matthews	C	0	1	1	6	0	1	+1	2	22:41	4:10
M. Knies	LW	1	0	1	2	0	1	+1	0	18:40	4:14
J. Tavares	C	0	1	1	0	0	1	+1	0	17:19	4:06
M. Domi	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	0	13:28	1:27
B. McMann	C	1	0	1	3	0	0	0	0	12:37	1:39
W. Nylander	RW	0	0	0	2	0	1	+1	0	18:43	4:09
P. Holmberg	RW	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	0	11:40	0:10
D. Kampf	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	10:39	0:00
N. Robertson	LW	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	9:34	0:07
S. Lorentz	C	0	0	0	1	1	3	-1	0	9:01	0:00
M. Pacioretty	LW	0	0	0	2	3	0	-1	2	8:09	1:26
J. McCabe	D	0	1	1	1	3	1	+1	0	21:45	0:00
M. Rielly	D	0	1	1	3	0	1	0	2	21:35	1:34
P. Myers	D	1	0	1	4	2	1	0	2	14:21	0:00
C. Tanev	D	0	0	0	0	1	6	+1	0	21:19	0:00
O. Ekman-Larsson	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	19:22	1:41
S. Benoit	D	0	0	0	0	4	2	0	5	13:59	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Stolarz	27	26	1	.963	60:00	Win
J. Woll	0	0	0	–	0:00

SEA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
O. Bjorkstrand	RW	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	5	15:51	5:42
E. Tolvanen	RW	1	0	1	3	3	0	+1	0	15:17	0:12
C. Stephenson	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	4	22:29	5:36
J. Schwartz	LW	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	20:54	3:48
K. Kakko	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	20:21	5:51
M. Beniers	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	-1	0	20:20	4:12
J. McCann	LW	0	0	0	1	3	0	-1	0	17:24	5:55
A. Burakovsky	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	15:34	4:17
S. Wright	C	0	0	0	3	0	1	0	0	13:43	3:50
B. Tanev	LW	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	12:45	0:12
M. Stephens	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	2	7:39	0:08
T. Kartye	LW	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	4:44	0:00
V. Dunn	D	0	0	0	4	0	0	-1	0	24:40	6:21
B. Montour	D	0	0	0	6	2	4	-2	0	22:44	5:40
A. Larsson	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	21:40	0:08
J. Oleksiak	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	18:46	0:00
J. Mahura	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	+1	0	12:00	0:04
C. Fleury	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	+1	0	11:21	0:04

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Daccord	30	27	3	.900	56:01	Loss
A. Stezka	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamBobby McMann SEA Faces TOR, his team until Mar 20261 G, 3 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	TOR 3.0, SEA 2.8	TOR 3, SEA 1
Total goals	5.9	4
Shots on goal	TOR 28.6, SEA 28.0	TOR 30, SEA 27
Win chance	TOR 53%	TOR won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
TOR A. Matthews	4.0	6	1.17	1	45%	0
TOR W. Nylander	3.5	2	1.06	0	38%	0
TOR J. Tavares	2.8	0	0.85	1	31%	0
TOR B. McMann	2.7	3	0.56	1	27%	1
SEA B. Montour	2.6	6	0.55	0	14%	0
SEA J. Schwartz	2.4	0	0.65	0	26%	0
SEA J. McCann	2.3	1	0.73	0	28%	0
TOR M. Marner	2.2	1	1.19	1	29%	0
SEA V. Dunn	2.2	4	0.71	0	14%	0
SEA M. Beniers	2.0	2	0.64	0	24%	0
SEA O. Bjorkstrand	1.9	1	0.59	1	21%	0
TOR M. Pacioretty	1.9	2	0.46	0	17%	0
SEA K. Kakko	1.9	0	0.59	0	21%	0
TOR M. Knies	1.8	2	0.66	1	26%	1
TOR M. Rielly	1.8	3	0.56	1	9%	0
SEA E. Tolvanen	1.8	3	0.48	1	21%	1
SEA A. Burakovsky	1.7	0	0.46	0	16%	0
TOR M. Domi	1.6	1	0.53	1	13%	0
TOR N. Robertson	1.6	0	0.33	0	16%	0
TOR O. Ekman-Larsson	1.5	0	0.35	0	7%	0
SEA A. Larsson	1.5	1	0.27	0	7%	0
SEA C. Stephenson	1.2	1	0.73	0	21%	0
TOR J. McCabe	1.2	1	0.32	1	7%	0
TOR P. Myers	1.2	4	0.15	1	4%	1
SEA B. Tanev	1.2	1	0.30	0	14%	0
SEA S. Wright	1.2	3	0.59	0	21%	0
SEA J. Oleksiak	1.0	0	0.23	0	5%	0
TOR P. Holmberg	1.0	4	0.28	0	11%	0
SEA J. Mahura	1.0	2	0.19	0	3%	0
TOR D. Kampf	0.9	0	0.22	0	9%	0
TOR S. Lorentz	0.9	1	0.20	0	9%	0
TOR C. Tanev	0.7	0	0.26	0	4%	0
SEA T. Kartye	0.7	0	0.16	0	8%	0
SEA C. Fleury	0.7	1	0.11	0	2%	0
SEA M. Stephens	0.7	1	0.17	0	7%	0
TOR S. Benoit	0.7	0	0.08	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 17 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.