Game Recap: TOR 2, SEA 5, January 29, 2026

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Game Recap

TOR2

FinalThu, Jan 29, 2026Every game that night

SEA5

SEA beat TOR 5-2 despite fewer good chances: 1.81 expected goals to 3.09. TOR outshot SEA 31 to 22. S. Wright led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). J. McCabe had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 0.9. J. Daccord stopped 29 of 31.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
TOR	1	0	1	2
SEA	1	2	2	5

1st 1:21SEAM. Beniers0.16 xG
1st 15:02TORN. Robertson0.09 xG
2nd 6:23SEAS. Wright0.04 xG
2nd 6:54SEAB. Montour0.09 xG
3rd 6:04TORM. RiellyPP0.03 xG
3rd 8:32SEAS. Wright0.15 xG
3rd 17:23SEAJ. McCannEN0.64 xG

Team Stats

TORSEA

31Shots on goal22

3.09Expected goals1.81

64Shot attempts37

215v5 shots on goal18

1/3Power play0/2

20Hits13

9Blocked shots11

4Penalty minutes6

18Giveaways17

5Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

TOR 3.09 xGSEA 1.81 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

TOR30 on goal, 2 scored

SEA21 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

TOR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Domi	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	-1	0	19:51	3:11
N. Robertson	LW	1	0	1	2	1	0	0	0	16:12	0:52
A. Matthews	C	0	0	0	4	0	0	-1	0	21:00	4:13
B. McMann	C	0	0	0	3	2	0	-1	0	16:56	0:40
N. Roy	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	0	16:52	0:13
M. Knies	LW	0	0	0	3	0	0	-4	0	16:04	4:15
J. Tavares	C	0	0	0	3	1	0	-3	0	15:32	4:11
C. Jarnkrok	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	0	15:20	0:00
S. Laughton	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	12:53	0:00
S. Lorentz	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	11:53	0:00
M. Maccelli	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-3	0	11:10	1:59
E. Cowan	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	9:44	0:40
M. Rielly	D	1	0	1	3	0	2	-1	0	22:53	3:48
J. McCabe	D	0	0	0	5	1	1	0	0	22:55	0:01
O. Ekman-Larsson	D	0	0	0	1	3	0	-2	0	22:36	1:32
B. Carlo	D	0	0	0	1	3	1	-2	2	17:58	0:00
S. Benoit	D	0	0	0	1	3	3	-1	0	14:01	0:00
T. Stecher	D	0	0	0	2	1	2	-1	2	13:36	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Stolarz	21	17	4	.810	58:34	Loss
J. Woll	0	0	0	–	0:00

SEA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. McCann	LW	1	1	2	1	0	1	+1	0	16:12	2:49
S. Wright	C	2	0	2	2	0	1	+2	2	15:41	1:11
F. Gaudreau	C	0	1	1	1	0	2	+1	0	20:11	0:00
C. Stephenson	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	0	19:40	2:46
M. Beniers	C	1	0	1	1	0	0	+1	0	16:37	2:47
J. Eberle	RW	0	1	1	0	1	0	+1	0	14:48	2:48
J. Schwartz	LW	0	1	1	3	0	0	+2	0	12:28	1:14
E. Tolvanen	RW	0	0	0	4	1	1	+1	0	18:41	1:08
K. Kakko	RW	0	0	0	1	2	0	+2	0	14:34	1:12
R. Winterton	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	13:32	0:00
J. Melanson	RW	0	0	0	1	7	0	0	0	13:01	0:00
B. Catton	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3:12	0:00
B. Montour	D	1	1	2	2	2	1	+4	0	21:39	1:18
J. Oleksiak	D	0	1	1	0	0	2	+3	0	20:01	0:00
A. Larsson	D	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	2	18:33	0:00
R. Lindgren	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	-1	0	20:05	0:00
V. Dunn	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	2	19:14	2:42
R. Evans	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	16:44	0:05

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Daccord	31	29	2	.935	60:00	Win
P. Grubauer	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

TOR

Line 1A. Matthews15:12B. McMann15:49M. Domi15:37

Line 2N. Roy14:43N. Robertson14:11C. Jarnkrok13:46

Line 3J. Tavares10:22M. Knies10:26M. Maccelli9:11

Line 4S. Laughton10:35S. Lorentz9:36E. Cowan8:41

Pair 1O. Ekman-Larsson20:34J. McCabe20:06

Pair 2M. Rielly16:51B. Carlo16:14

Pair 3T. Stecher12:51S. Benoit12:30

SEA

Line 1K. Kakko13:22S. Wright14:30J. Schwartz10:49

Line 2C. Stephenson12:32E. Tolvanen12:54F. Gaudreau17:58

Line 3J. Eberle11:19M. Beniers12:55J. McCann12:42

Line 4J. Melanson13:01R. Winterton12:59

Pair 1J. Oleksiak17:44B. Montour19:19

Pair 2R. Lindgren14:51R. Evans16:16

Pair 3A. Larsson14:39V. Dunn16:16

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamBobby McMann SEA Faces TOR, his team until Mar 20263 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	TOR 3.3, SEA 3.4	TOR 2, SEA 5
Total goals	6.7	7
Shots on goal	TOR 27.3, SEA 29.7	TOR 31, SEA 22
Win chance	SEA 51%	SEA won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
TOR A. Matthews	3.7	4	1.04	0	42%	0
SEA B. Montour	2.6	2	0.55	2	17%	1
TOR J. Tavares	2.5	3	0.83	0	32%	0
SEA J. McCann	2.5	1	0.76	2	28%	1
TOR B. McMann	2.3	3	0.51	0	24%	0
SEA J. Schwartz	2.1	3	0.55	1	23%	0
SEA J. Eberle	2.1	0	0.66	1	23%	0
SEA M. Beniers	2.0	1	0.63	1	22%	1
SEA V. Dunn	1.9	1	0.62	0	14%	0
SEA E. Tolvanen	1.9	4	0.53	0	21%	0
TOR M. Knies	1.8	3	0.71	0	25%	0
TOR M. Rielly	1.8	3	0.58	1	10%	1
TOR M. Maccelli	1.7	1	0.60	0	18%	0
TOR M. Domi	1.7	1	0.56	1	15%	0
TOR N. Robertson	1.5	2	0.39	1	18%	1
SEA S. Wright	1.5	2	0.46	2	18%	2
SEA K. Kakko	1.5	1	0.48	0	16%	0
TOR O. Ekman-Larsson	1.3	1	0.44	0	8%	0
TOR E. Cowan	1.3	0	0.34	0	13%	0
TOR S. Laughton	1.3	0	0.33	0	15%	0
SEA C. Stephenson	1.3	1	0.66	1	20%	0
SEA A. Larsson	1.3	1	0.31	1	9%	0
SEA F. Gaudreau	1.2	1	0.37	1	15%	0
SEA B. Catton	1.1	0	0.26	0	12%	0
TOR S. Lorentz	1.1	0	0.26	0	10%	0
TOR T. Stecher	1.1	2	0.20	0	5%	0
SEA R. Winterton	1.1	2	0.23	0	7%	0
TOR N. Roy	1.0	0	0.34	0	13%	0
SEA J. Melanson	1.0	1	0.25	0	9%	0
SEA J. Oleksiak	1.0	0	0.21	1	6%	0
TOR B. Carlo	1.0	1	0.15	0	3%	0
TOR J. McCabe	0.9	5	0.34	0	5%	0
TOR C. Jarnkrok	0.9	1	0.24	0	12%	0
SEA R. Lindgren	0.8	0	0.25	0	5%	0
SEA R. Evans	0.7	1	0.29	0	7%	0
TOR S. Benoit	0.7	1	0.10	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 26 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.