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Game Recap
TOR5
SJS6
SJS beat TOR 6-5 in a shootout despite fewer good chances: 3.31 expected goals to 4.17. T. Toffoli led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). T. Toffoli had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 2.9. A. Georgiev stopped 30 of 35.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | SO | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| SJS | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
- 1st 7:50SJST. Toffoli0.75 xG
- 1st 14:40TORW. NylanderPP0.11 xG
- 1st 17:45SJSC. GrafSH0.17 xG
- 2nd 1:39SJSA. Wennberg0.15 xG
- 2nd 4:46TORA. MatthewsPP0.75 xG
- 2nd 13:18SJSW. Eklund0.10 xG
- 2nd 15:13TORS. Laughton0.03 xG
- 3rd 3:02SJST. ToffoliPP0.07 xG
- 3rd 19:01TORJ. Tavares0.06 xG
- 3rd 19:46TORW. Nylander0.17 xG
Team Stats
TORSJS
35Shots on goal35
4.17Expected goals3.31
70Shot attempts70
215v5 shots on goal29
2/4Power play1/4
26Hits5
17Blocked shots21
20Penalty minutes10
13Giveaways10
2Takeaways4
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
TOR 4.17 xGSJS 3.31 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
TOR Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Marner | RW | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 25:26 | 3:01 |
| A. Matthews | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 25:07 | 3:00 |
| W. Nylander | RW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 22:26 | 3:06 |
| M. Knies | LW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 22:06 | 3:05 |
| J. Tavares | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 20:15 | 3:05 |
| S. Laughton | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 12:28 | 0:47 |
| D. Kampf | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 11:37 | 0:00 |
| B. McMann | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 15:16 | 1:52 |
| N. Robertson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10:45 | 1:53 |
| M. Domi | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 9:41 | 1:04 |
| C. Jarnkrok | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:38 | 0:00 |
| S. Lorentz | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:33 | 0:00 |
| O. Ekman-Larsson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 24:51 | 1:52 |
| J. McCabe | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 23:11 | 0:04 |
| M. Rielly | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 21:52 | 1:56 |
| C. Tanev | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:11 | 0:00 |
| B. Carlo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 15:38 | 0:00 |
| S. Benoit | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 12:24 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Woll | 35 | 30 | 5 | .857 | 62:23 | OT loss |
| A. Stolarz | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
SJS Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Toffoli | C | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 19:28 | 4:49 |
| W. Eklund | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22:10 | 4:41 |
| M. Celebrini | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 23:16 | 4:49 |
| A. Wennberg | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 20:43 | 2:54 |
| C. Graf | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 19:55 | 1:25 |
| W. Smith | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:07 | 3:02 |
| T. Dellandrea | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12:45 | 0:07 |
| B. Goodrow | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 12:44 | 0:07 |
| P. Giles | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:59 | 0:07 |
| C. Lund | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:06 | 1:16 |
| C. Grundstrom | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 9:22 | 0:00 |
| Z. Ostapchuk | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7:54 | 0:00 |
| T. Liljegren | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 4 | +2 | 0 | 23:13 | 0:58 |
| M. Ferraro | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 25:24 | 0:07 |
| L. Carlsson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 4 | 17:50 | 0:00 |
| S. Mukhamadullin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 25:26 | 1:31 |
| L. Cagnoni | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:23 | 5:07 |
| V. Desharnais | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 13:18 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Georgiev | 35 | 30 | 5 | .857 | 65:00 | Win |
| G. Romanov | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | TOR 3.7, SJS 3.0 | TOR 5, SJS 6 |
| Total goals | 6.7 | 11 |
| Shots on goal | TOR 29.4, SJS 28.5 | TOR 35, SJS 35 |
| Win chance | TOR 61% | SJS won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR A. Matthews | 3.8 | 4 | 1.23 | 2 | 46% | 1 |
| SJS M. Celebrini | 3.2 | 2 | 0.87 | 1 | 27% | 0 |
| TOR W. Nylander | 3.0 | 3 | 1.09 | 2 | 38% | 2 |
| SJS T. Toffoli | 2.9 | 7 | 0.74 | 3 | 31% | 2 |
| TOR J. Tavares | 2.6 | 2 | 0.96 | 2 | 34% | 1 |
| TOR B. McMann | 2.2 | 6 | 0.56 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| TOR M. Marner | 1.9 | 2 | 1.19 | 3 | 30% | 0 |
| TOR M. Knies | 1.9 | 3 | 0.74 | 2 | 28% | 0 |
| SJS W. Smith | 1.9 | 1 | 0.69 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| SJS W. Eklund | 1.8 | 3 | 0.73 | 2 | 21% | 1 |
| TOR N. Robertson | 1.7 | 3 | 0.41 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| TOR M. Rielly | 1.6 | 2 | 0.66 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| SJS C. Grundstrom | 1.5 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| TOR O. Ekman-Larsson | 1.5 | 0 | 0.46 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| TOR S. Laughton | 1.5 | 2 | 0.42 | 1 | 15% | 1 |
| TOR M. Domi | 1.4 | 2 | 0.54 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| SJS T. Liljegren | 1.4 | 5 | 0.31 | 2 | 7% | 0 |
| TOR C. Jarnkrok | 1.4 | 1 | 0.42 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| SJS C. Graf | 1.3 | 2 | 0.41 | 1 | 16% | 1 |
| SJS S. Mukhamadullin | 1.1 | 3 | 0.37 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| TOR J. McCabe | 1.1 | 1 | 0.40 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| SJS L. Carlsson | 1.1 | 1 | 0.27 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| SJS M. Ferraro | 1.1 | 2 | 0.23 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| TOR S. Lorentz | 1.1 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| SJS A. Wennberg | 1.1 | 3 | 0.47 | 1 | 14% | 1 |
| TOR B. Carlo | 1.0 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| SJS P. Giles | 1.0 | 1 | 0.17 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| SJS T. Dellandrea | 1.0 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| TOR D. Kampf | 0.9 | 0 | 0.27 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| SJS B. Goodrow | 0.9 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| TOR S. Benoit | 0.7 | 0 | 0.14 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| TOR C. Tanev | 0.6 | 2 | 0.27 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| SJS V. Desharnais | 0.6 | 0 | 0.12 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| SJS Z. Ostapchuk | 0.6 | 0 | 0.12 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 23 of 34 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.