Game Recap: TOR 2, STL 4, November 2, 2024

Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!

Game Recap

TOR2

FinalSat, Nov 2, 2024Every game that night

STL4

STL beat TOR 4-2 despite fewer good chances: 3.05 expected goals to 3.72. TOR outshot STL 37 to 24. C. Parayko led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). M. Marner had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.4. J. Binnington stopped 35 of 37.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
TOR	1	0	1	2
STL	0	3	1	4

1st 5:25TORM. Marner0.64 xG
2nd 3:29STLC. Parayko0.01 xG
2nd 8:08STLJ. Kyrou0.02 xG
2nd 12:33STLC. Parayko0.02 xG
3rd 13:52TORS. Lorentz0.40 xG
3rd 19:21STLP. BuchnevichEN0.93 xG

Team Stats

TORSTL

37Shots on goal24

3.72Expected goals3.05

69Shot attempts46

305v5 shots on goal18

0/4Power play0/4

18Hits17

13Blocked shots17

20Penalty minutes20

11Giveaways14

7Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

TOR 3.72 xGSTL 3.05 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

TOR37 on goal, 2 scored

STL24 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

TOR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Marner	RW	1	0	1	6	0	0	-1	4	19:59	2:39
D. Kampf	C	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	0	9:49	0:00
S. Lorentz	C	1	0	1	1	1	1	+1	0	8:07	0:00
W. Nylander	RW	0	0	0	4	0	1	-3	0	20:19	3:06
A. Matthews	C	0	0	0	2	2	0	-1	2	20:03	3:07
J. Tavares	C	0	0	0	5	1	0	-2	0	19:21	3:07
M. Knies	LW	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	19:21	1:59
M. Pacioretty	LW	0	0	0	2	4	0	-1	0	15:33	1:50
B. McMann	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	-1	0	14:07	1:50
M. Domi	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	13:16	1:54
P. Holmberg	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	5	11:30	0:00
R. Reaves	RW	0	0	0	0	2	0	+1	0	6:42	0:00
J. McCabe	D	0	1	1	1	2	2	0	7	21:12	0:13
C. Timmins	D	0	1	1	1	0	1	+2	0	17:07	0:02
O. Ekman-Larsson	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	-1	0	22:13	2:04
M. Rielly	D	0	0	0	2	0	3	-2	0	21:44	3:11
C. Tanev	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-2	2	17:00	0:03
S. Benoit	D	0	0	0	1	3	1	0	0	15:33	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Woll	23	20	3	.870	59:04	Loss
A. Stolarz	0	0	0	–	0:00

STL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Kyrou	RW	1	0	1	5	1	1	+1	0	20:09	3:10
D. Holloway	LW	0	1	1	2	1	0	+2	0	18:44	2:14
P. Buchnevich	LW	1	0	1	2	1	0	0	5	16:48	2:49
N. Walker	LW	0	1	1	2	0	0	+1	2	8:52	0:00
B. Schenn	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	+2	5	18:36	2:16
R. Faksa	C	0	0	0	0	2	2	-2	2	17:22	0:09
B. Saad	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	14:41	1:51
A. Toropchenko	RW	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	13:50	0:00
J. Neighbours	LW	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	4	13:42	1:50
A. Texier	LW	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	12:44	2:38
O. Sundqvist	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	+1	0	10:46	0:29
Z. Bolduc	RW	0	0	0	1	1	1	+1	0	10:00	1:51
C. Parayko	D	2	1	3	2	0	3	+3	0	27:58	2:21
R. Suter	D	0	2	2	0	1	4	+3	0	26:29	0:47
J. Faulk	D	0	0	0	4	2	3	-1	0	24:13	2:40
P. Joseph	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	2	15:18	0:00
M. Kessel	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	11:52	0:00
P. Broberg	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	10:17	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Binnington	37	35	2	.946	59:39	Win
J. Hofer	0	0	0	–	0:00

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	TOR 3.5, STL 3.2	TOR 2, STL 4
Total goals	6.7	6
Shots on goal	TOR 32.5, STL 28.7	TOR 37, STL 24
Win chance	TOR 55%	STL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
TOR A. Matthews	4.5	2	1.15	0	46%	0
TOR W. Nylander	3.3	4	0.95	0	34%	0
TOR J. Tavares	3.2	5	0.76	0	28%	0
STL J. Kyrou	3.0	5	0.90	1	33%	1
TOR M. Marner	2.4	6	1.14	1	30%	1
TOR B. McMann	2.3	3	0.43	0	21%	0
STL P. Buchnevich	2.1	2	0.82	1	28%	1
TOR M. Knies	2.1	2	0.56	0	23%	0
TOR M. Rielly	2.0	2	0.62	0	9%	0
STL B. Schenn	2.0	1	0.64	0	22%	0
TOR M. Pacioretty	1.9	2	0.51	0	18%	0
STL J. Faulk	1.9	4	0.54	0	10%	0
STL J. Neighbours	1.9	2	0.50	0	26%	0
STL B. Saad	1.8	1	0.56	0	25%	0
TOR M. Domi	1.8	2	0.59	0	15%	0
STL D. Holloway	1.8	2	0.40	1	20%	0
TOR O. Ekman-Larsson	1.7	1	0.38	0	7%	0
STL C. Parayko	1.7	2	0.34	3	8%	2
STL A. Texier	1.6	1	0.49	0	19%	0
STL Z. Bolduc	1.5	1	0.40	0	15%	0
STL A. Toropchenko	1.4	0	0.26	0	14%	0
STL R. Suter	1.1	0	0.26	2	4%	0
TOR S. Lorentz	1.0	1	0.19	1	10%	1
TOR J. McCabe	1.0	1	0.34	1	6%	0
STL P. Broberg	1.0	0	0.37	0	7%	0
TOR D. Kampf	1.0	1	0.22	1	9%	0
TOR P. Holmberg	1.0	2	0.28	0	12%	0
STL R. Faksa	1.0	0	0.23	0	10%	0
STL N. Walker	1.0	2	0.28	1	12%	0
TOR C. Timmins	0.9	1	0.34	1	4%	0
STL P. Joseph	0.9	1	0.20	0	4%	0
STL O. Sundqvist	0.8	0	0.29	0	11%	0
TOR C. Tanev	0.7	1	0.22	0	3%	0
TOR S. Benoit	0.7	1	0.09	0	2%	0
STL M. Kessel	0.6	0	0.13	0	3%	0
TOR R. Reaves	0.5	0	0.13	0	6%	0

Shots on goal: 26 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.