Game Recap: TOR 1, VAN 2, February 8, 2025

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Game Recap

TOR1

FinalSat, Feb 8, 2025Every game that night

VAN2

VAN beat TOR 2-1, and the chances backed it up: 3.75 expected goals to 2.13. F. Hronek led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). K. Lankinen stopped 21 of 22.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
TOR	0	1	0	1
VAN	1	0	1	2

1st 7:00VANF. Hronek0.21 xG
2nd 19:54TORM. Rielly0.08 xG
3rd 8:56VANB. BoeserPP0.16 xG

Team Stats

TORVAN

28Shots on goal25

2.13Expected goals3.75

57Shot attempts63

225v5 shots on goal23

0/2Power play1/2

19Hits22

11Blocked shots15

4Penalty minutes4

11Giveaways12

3Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

TOR 2.13 xGVAN 3.75 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

TOR26 on goal, 1 scored

VAN25 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

TOR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Matthews	C	0	1	1	4	0	0	0	0	21:26	3:15
M. Marner	RW	0	0	0	2	1	0	+1	0	22:01	3:23
M. Knies	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	20:07	3:15
W. Nylander	RW	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	19:58	3:02
J. Tavares	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	19:12	3:01
B. McMann	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	15:16	1:36
M. Domi	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	14:01	0:45
M. Pacioretty	LW	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	0	12:13	0:45
P. Holmberg	RW	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	12:00	0:00
D. Kampf	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	11:28	0:00
N. Robertson	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	10:14	0:00
S. Lorentz	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	0	9:10	0:00
O. Ekman-Larsson	D	0	1	1	2	1	0	+1	2	23:13	0:58
M. Rielly	D	1	0	1	2	1	1	+1	0	22:02	0:50
C. Tanev	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	19:37	0:00
J. McCabe	D	0	0	0	3	1	1	0	0	18:21	0:00
P. Myers	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	-1	2	15:09	0:00
S. Benoit	D	0	0	0	0	2	4	-1	0	13:42	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Woll	25	23	2	.920	57:37	Loss
A. Stolarz	0	0	0	–	0:00

VAN Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
E. Pettersson	C	0	1	1	1	0	3	+1	0	18:31	1:15
B. Boeser	RW	1	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	14:26	1:53
F. Chytil	C	0	1	1	3	2	1	0	0	14:06	1:57
K. Sherwood	LW	0	0	0	2	5	3	+1	0	18:31	0:00
J. DeBrusk	LW	0	0	0	1	0	1	+1	0	17:14	1:20
P. Suter	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	16:25	1:18
D. Joshua	C	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	0	15:50	1:55
T. Blueger	C	0	0	0	2	2	0	-1	0	14:20	0:00
C. Garland	RW	0	0	0	4	0	1	0	0	14:04	1:56
D. O'Connor	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	2	13:34	0:00
N. Hoglander	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	11:53	1:17
N. Aman	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	9:56	0:00
F. Hronek	D	1	1	2	2	2	1	+1	0	23:20	2:29
D. Forbort	D	0	1	1	2	0	0	+1	0	18:57	0:00
T. Myers	D	0	0	0	2	1	4	-1	0	24:44	0:41
M. Pettersson	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	2	23:46	0:04
C. Soucy	D	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	15:04	0:00
E. Pettersson	D	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	11:19	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
T. Demko	6	6	0	1.000	10:00
K. Lankinen	22	21	1	.955	50:00	Win

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamDakota Joshua TOR Faces VAN, his team until Apr 20251 SOG
HometownMorgan Rielly TOR Plays in his hometown1 G, 2 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	TOR 2.8, VAN 2.8	TOR 1, VAN 2
Total goals	5.6	3
Shots on goal	TOR 26.2, VAN 26.5	TOR 28, VAN 25
Win chance	VAN 51%	VAN won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
TOR A. Matthews	4.0	4	1.14	1	44%	0
TOR W. Nylander	3.3	2	0.99	0	36%	0
TOR J. Tavares	2.7	2	0.81	0	29%	0
VAN F. Chytil	2.6	3	0.60	1	24%	0
TOR B. McMann	2.5	2	0.52	0	25%	0
VAN B. Boeser	2.4	1	0.80	1	32%	1
VAN J. DeBrusk	2.2	1	0.64	0	29%	0
TOR M. Marner	2.2	2	1.18	0	28%	0
VAN C. Garland	2.1	4	0.58	0	22%	0
VAN E. Pettersson	2.1	1	0.83	1	29%	0
TOR M. Knies	1.8	1	0.64	0	25%	0
VAN D. O'Connor	1.8	1	0.36	0	16%	0
TOR M. Pacioretty	1.7	2	0.40	0	15%	0
VAN K. Sherwood	1.7	2	0.42	0	18%	0
TOR M. Rielly	1.7	2	0.53	1	10%	1
VAN P. Suter	1.6	1	0.45	0	20%	0
VAN F. Hronek	1.6	2	0.52	2	7%	1
TOR M. Domi	1.5	1	0.50	0	13%	0
TOR N. Robertson	1.4	2	0.30	0	15%	0
TOR O. Ekman-Larsson	1.4	2	0.33	1	7%	0
VAN T. Myers	1.3	2	0.35	0	4%	0
TOR P. Myers	1.2	1	0.16	0	5%	0
VAN N. Hoglander	1.2	0	0.29	0	14%	0
VAN M. Pettersson	1.1	1	0.37	0	4%	0
TOR J. McCabe	1.1	3	0.31	0	7%	0
VAN E. Pettersson	1.1	0	0.20	0	3%	0
VAN T. Blueger	1.1	2	0.30	0	9%	0
VAN D. Joshua	1.0	1	0.40	0	18%	0
TOR P. Holmberg	1.0	1	0.26	0	10%	0
VAN C. Soucy	0.9	0	0.18	0	5%	0
TOR D. Kampf	0.9	0	0.21	0	8%	0
TOR S. Lorentz	0.8	0	0.19	0	9%	0
VAN D. Forbort	0.8	2	0.17	1	4%	0
TOR C. Tanev	0.7	1	0.24	0	4%	0
VAN N. Aman	0.6	1	0.19	0	7%	0
TOR S. Benoit	0.6	0	0.08	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 27 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.