Game Recap: TOR 3, VAN 2 (SO), January 31, 2026

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Game Recap

TOR3

Final/SOSat, Jan 31, 2026Every game that night

VAN2

TOR beat VAN 3-2 in a shootout, and the chances backed it up: 4.80 expected goals to 2.83. TOR outshot VAN 41 to 30. B. Carlo had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 0.9. J. Woll stopped 28 of 30.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	SO	T
TOR	0	1	1	1	3
VAN	0	2	0	0	2

2nd 1:55VANJ. Lekkerimäki0.15 xG
2nd 13:34TORN. Roy0.15 xG
2nd 14:45VANT. Willander0.15 xG
3rd 2:32TORM. Domi0.07 xG

Team Stats

TORVAN

41Shots on goal30

4.80Expected goals2.83

90Shot attempts52

355v5 shots on goal26

0/0Power play0/0

17Hits14

10Blocked shots23

2Penalty minutes2

14Giveaways19

4Takeaways7

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

TOR 4.80 xGVAN 2.83 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

TOR39 on goal, 2 scored

VAN27 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

TOR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Matthews	C	0	1	1	7	0	0	+1	0	22:30	0:00
M. Domi	C	1	0	1	1	0	1	+1	0	20:08	0:00
B. McMann	C	0	1	1	0	2	0	+1	0	17:35	0:00
N. Roy	C	1	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	14:00	0:00
N. Robertson	LW	0	1	1	3	1	2	0	0	13:02	0:00
W. Nylander	RW	0	0	0	5	0	1	-1	0	20:29	0:00
J. Tavares	C	0	0	0	4	1	0	-1	0	19:03	0:00
M. Maccelli	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	17:06	0:00
M. Knies	LW	0	0	0	4	0	1	0	0	15:33	0:00
S. Laughton	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	10:30	0:00
C. Jarnkrok	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	9:16	0:00
S. Lorentz	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	8:31	0:00
O. Ekman-Larsson	D	0	1	1	3	1	1	+1	0	28:10	0:00
J. McCabe	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	27:40	0:00
B. Carlo	D	0	0	0	5	0	0	0	0	23:44	0:00
T. Stecher	D	0	0	0	4	2	1	+1	0	23:29	0:00
M. Rielly	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-2	0	12:34	0:00
M. Rifai	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	9:40	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Woll	30	28	2	.933	65:00	Win
A. Stolarz	0	0	0	–	0:00

VAN Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
E. Pettersson	C	0	1	1	0	1	2	+1	0	18:48	0:00
E. Kane	LW	0	1	1	2	0	2	+1	0	18:30	0:00
L. Ohgren	LW	0	1	1	0	0	3	+1	0	15:03	0:00
J. Lekkerimäki	RW	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	0	12:06	0:00
C. Garland	RW	0	0	0	3	0	0	+1	0	18:50	0:00
T. Blueger	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	18:07	0:00
J. DeBrusk	LW	0	0	0	4	0	1	0	0	17:23	0:00
D. Kampf	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	16:46	0:00
F. Chytil	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	-2	0	13:58	0:00
L. Karlsson	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	-1	0	13:38	0:00
D. O'Connor	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	12:43	0:00
A. Räty	C	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	0	11:42	0:00
P. Joseph	D	0	1	1	2	0	2	0	0	17:22	0:00
T. Willander	D	1	0	1	2	0	1	+1	0	16:00	0:00
F. Hronek	D	0	0	0	2	4	3	0	0	27:38	0:00
M. Pettersson	D	0	0	0	1	1	3	+1	0	21:59	0:00
T. Myers	D	0	0	0	3	2	2	-1	0	21:16	0:00
E. Pettersson	D	0	0	0	0	0	3	-1	2	21:11	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
N. Tolopilo	41	39	2	.951	65:00	OT loss
K. Lankinen	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

TOR

Line 1M. Domi17:52A. Matthews18:33B. McMann17:35

Line 2J. Tavares16:12W. Nylander17:18M. Maccelli17:06

Line 3M. Knies14:14N. Roy13:35N. Robertson13:02

Line 4C. Jarnkrok9:16S. Laughton10:30S. Lorentz8:31

Pair 1O. Ekman-Larsson24:46T. Stecher22:29

Pair 2B. Carlo22:54M. Rielly12:34

Pair 3J. McCabe23:53M. Rifai9:40

VAN

Line 1E. Kane18:30E. Pettersson16:00C. Garland16:48

Line 2T. Blueger16:50L. Ohgren13:59J. Lekkerimäki12:06

Line 3D. Kampf15:23L. Karlsson13:38F. Chytil12:40

Line 4D. O'Connor11:47A. Räty11:42J. DeBrusk14:11

Pair 1E. Pettersson21:11F. Hronek23:38

Pair 2T. Myers20:26P. Joseph16:30

Pair 3M. Pettersson20:42T. Willander13:59

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

HometownMorgan Rielly TOR Plays in his hometown0 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	TOR 3.5, VAN 3.4	TOR 3, VAN 2
Total goals	7.0	5
Shots on goal	TOR 27.6, VAN 30.6	TOR 41, VAN 30
Win chance	TOR 51%	TOR won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
TOR A. Matthews	3.7	7	1.16	1	43%	0
VAN J. DeBrusk	2.5	4	0.59	0	26%	0
TOR J. Tavares	2.5	4	0.91	0	32%	0
VAN F. Chytil	2.4	2	0.49	0	20%	0
VAN E. Kane	2.3	2	0.51	1	23%	0
TOR B. McMann	2.3	0	0.56	1	24%	0
VAN C. Garland	2.0	3	0.54	0	20%	0
VAN L. Karlsson	2.0	2	0.57	0	20%	0
VAN E. Pettersson	1.9	0	0.81	1	27%	0
TOR M. Knies	1.8	4	0.78	0	25%	0
TOR W. Nylander	1.8	5	0.84	0	28%	0
TOR M. Rielly	1.8	0	0.63	0	12%	0
TOR M. Domi	1.7	1	0.66	1	16%	1
VAN D. O'Connor	1.7	1	0.40	0	17%	0
TOR N. Robertson	1.6	3	0.46	1	20%	0
VAN L. Ohgren	1.6	0	0.26	1	12%	0
TOR M. Maccelli	1.6	1	0.61	0	17%	0
VAN F. Hronek	1.6	2	0.63	0	10%	0
VAN T. Blueger	1.4	1	0.38	0	12%	0
TOR O. Ekman-Larsson	1.4	3	0.47	1	10%	0
VAN T. Myers	1.3	3	0.26	0	5%	0
VAN A. Räty	1.2	1	0.34	0	14%	0
TOR S. Laughton	1.2	0	0.36	0	15%	0
VAN J. Lekkerimäki	1.2	2	0.32	1	13%	1
VAN D. Kampf	1.1	2	0.28	0	11%	0
TOR S. Lorentz	1.1	0	0.29	0	10%	0
TOR N. Roy	1.0	1	0.39	1	14%	1
TOR T. Stecher	1.0	4	0.19	0	5%	0
VAN T. Willander	1.0	2	0.41	1	8%	1
TOR J. McCabe	1.0	1	0.36	0	7%	0
VAN M. Pettersson	1.0	1	0.34	0	5%	0
TOR B. Carlo	0.9	5	0.15	0	4%	0
TOR C. Jarnkrok	0.9	1	0.29	0	13%	0
VAN P. Joseph	0.8	2	0.17	1	4%	0
VAN E. Pettersson	0.7	0	0.20	0	5%	0

Shots on goal: 18 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.