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Game Recap
TOR6
WPG4
TOR beat WPG 6-4, and the chances backed it up: 3.55 expected goals to 1.59. TOR outshot WPG 36 to 23. K. Connor led the way with 4 points (2 G, 2 A). J. Tavares had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 3.0. A. Stolarz stopped 19 of 23.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 2 | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| WPG | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
- 1st 11:56TORJ. Tavares0.45 xG
- 1st 17:47TORW. Nylander0.22 xG
- 2nd 0:56TORM. Knies0.14 xG
- 2nd 3:25TORM. Rielly0.14 xG
- 2nd 6:19WPGK. ConnorPP0.06 xG
- 2nd 11:25WPGK. ConnorPP0.11 xG
- 2nd 17:53TORJ. Tavares0.35 xG
- 3rd 7:36WPGM. Scheifele0.14 xG
- 3rd 16:13WPGG. Vilardi0.12 xG
- 3rd 19:35TORJ. TavaresEN0.51 xG
Team Stats
TORWPG
36Shots on goal23
3.55Expected goals1.59
60Shot attempts54
295v5 shots on goal14
0/2Power play2/4
25Hits21
18Blocked shots11
8Penalty minutes4
11Giveaways6
10Takeaways9
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
TOR 3.55 xGWPG 1.59 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
TOR Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Tavares | C | 3 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 1 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 17:13 | 1:46 |
| W. Nylander | RW | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 17:12 | 1:49 |
| M. Pacioretty | LW | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 15:00 | 2:14 |
| M. Marner | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 21:22 | 2:14 |
| A. Matthews | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 3 | +2 | 0 | 19:32 | 2:13 |
| M. Knies | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:41 | 2:16 |
| M. Domi | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:21 | 1:45 |
| B. McMann | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:00 | 1:22 |
| P. Holmberg | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 14:28 | 0:00 |
| S. Lorentz | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8:05 | 0:00 |
| D. Kampf | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7:48 | 0:01 |
| R. Reaves | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5:27 | 0:00 |
| C. Tanev | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | +1 | 0 | 24:26 | 0:03 |
| J. McCabe | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 23:13 | 0:05 |
| O. Ekman-Larsson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 2 | 21:00 | 1:33 |
| M. Rielly | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 2 | 20:58 | 2:22 |
| C. Timmins | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 14:41 | 0:17 |
| S. Benoit | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12:20 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Stolarz | 23 | 19 | 4 | .826 | 60:00 | Win |
| J. Woll | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
WPG Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Connor | LW | 2 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 20:07 | 4:13 |
| M. Scheifele | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 22:27 | 4:12 |
| G. Vilardi | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 20:00 | 4:14 |
| N. Ehlers | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:07 | 4:11 |
| C. Perfetti | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 15:16 | 1:55 |
| N. Niederreiter | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:07 | 1:53 |
| M. Appleton | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:00 | 0:23 |
| A. Lowry | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:50 | 0:07 |
| V. Namestnikov | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 13:54 | 1:36 |
| A. Iafallo | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 10:44 | 1:36 |
| M. Barron | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 10:08 | 0:07 |
| R. Kupari | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 7:17 | 0:00 |
| J. Morrissey | D | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 27:29 | 4:22 |
| N. Pionk | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -4 | 0 | 21:07 | 1:40 |
| D. DeMelo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20:01 | 0:00 |
| D. Samberg | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -5 | 0 | 16:36 | 0:07 |
| L. Stanley | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 16:11 | 0:18 |
| C. Miller | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:18 | 0:11 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Hellebuyck | 35 | 30 | 5 | .857 | 59:21 | Loss |
| E. Comrie | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | TOR 3.2, WPG 3.3 | TOR 6, WPG 4 |
| Total goals | 6.5 | 10 |
| Shots on goal | TOR 31.7, WPG 30.6 | TOR 36, WPG 23 |
| Win chance | WPG 53% | TOR won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR A. Matthews | 4.4 | 5 | 1.03 | 1 | 43% | 0 |
| WPG K. Connor | 3.3 | 7 | 0.99 | 4 | 37% | 2 |
| TOR W. Nylander | 3.2 | 2 | 0.84 | 3 | 31% | 1 |
| TOR J. Tavares | 3.0 | 7 | 0.65 | 3 | 25% | 3 |
| WPG N. Ehlers | 2.7 | 1 | 0.81 | 1 | 26% | 0 |
| TOR M. Marner | 2.3 | 4 | 1.03 | 1 | 28% | 0 |
| WPG G. Vilardi | 2.2 | 2 | 0.75 | 2 | 31% | 1 |
| WPG M. Scheifele | 2.2 | 2 | 0.99 | 2 | 34% | 1 |
| WPG J. Morrissey | 2.1 | 2 | 0.78 | 3 | 13% | 0 |
| TOR M. Rielly | 2.1 | 3 | 0.55 | 1 | 8% | 1 |
| TOR B. McMann | 2.0 | 4 | 0.36 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| WPG N. Niederreiter | 1.9 | 1 | 0.47 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| TOR M. Knies | 1.9 | 3 | 0.46 | 1 | 19% | 1 |
| WPG C. Perfetti | 1.9 | 1 | 0.58 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| TOR M. Pacioretty | 1.7 | 1 | 0.38 | 3 | 15% | 0 |
| TOR M. Domi | 1.7 | 2 | 0.53 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| TOR O. Ekman-Larsson | 1.7 | 1 | 0.33 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| WPG N. Pionk | 1.6 | 1 | 0.44 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| WPG M. Appleton | 1.5 | 1 | 0.42 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| WPG A. Lowry | 1.5 | 0 | 0.46 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| WPG M. Barron | 1.2 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| WPG C. Miller | 1.2 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| WPG D. Samberg | 1.1 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| WPG V. Namestnikov | 1.1 | 0 | 0.44 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| TOR S. Lorentz | 1.1 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| WPG A. Iafallo | 1.0 | 3 | 0.30 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| TOR P. Holmberg | 1.0 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| TOR J. McCabe | 1.0 | 0 | 0.29 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| WPG L. Stanley | 1.0 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| TOR D. Kampf | 1.0 | 2 | 0.21 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| WPG D. DeMelo | 0.9 | 0 | 0.32 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| WPG R. Kupari | 0.9 | 1 | 0.17 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| TOR C. Timmins | 0.9 | 0 | 0.31 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| TOR S. Benoit | 0.8 | 1 | 0.08 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| TOR C. Tanev | 0.7 | 1 | 0.18 | 1 | 3% | 0 |
| TOR R. Reaves | 0.6 | 0 | 0.13 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.