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Game Recap
TOR4
WPG3
TOR beat WPG 4-3 in overtime, with the chances close: 3.03 expected goals to 3.39. O. Ekman-Larsson led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). M. Domi had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.5. D. Hildeby stopped 27 of 30.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| WPG | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
- 2nd 2:23WPGA. Iafallo0.07 xG
- 2nd 8:59WPGK. Connor0.17 xG
- 2nd 9:22TORA. Matthews0.18 xG
- 3rd 2:28WPGN. Niederreiter0.08 xG
- 3rd 5:58TORO. Ekman-Larsson0.10 xG
- 3rd 15:33TORB. McMann0.08 xG
- OT 3:08TORM. Domi0.13 xG
Team Stats
TORWPG
37Shots on goal30
3.03Expected goals3.39
58Shot attempts67
295v5 shots on goal23
0/2Power play0/3
21Hits17
11Blocked shots11
6Penalty minutes4
23Giveaways13
5Takeaways2
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
TOR 3.03 xGWPG 3.39 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
TOR Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Matthews | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 21:38 | 3:00 |
| M. Domi | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 19:14 | 1:05 |
| B. McMann | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 16:51 | 0:25 |
| N. Robertson | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 12:27 | 1:28 |
| E. Cowan | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 10:53 | 0:59 |
| J. Tavares | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:40 | 3:04 |
| M. Knies | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 18:58 | 2:30 |
| M. Maccelli | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:09 | 2:55 |
| N. Roy | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:21 | 0:31 |
| S. Laughton | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:11 | 0:00 |
| S. Lorentz | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:18 | 0:00 |
| C. Jarnkrok | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 10:29 | 0:00 |
| O. Ekman-Larsson | D | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 2 | +4 | 0 | 25:10 | 2:04 |
| M. Rielly | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:55 | 1:56 |
| J. McCabe | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 25:30 | 0:03 |
| T. Stecher | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 21:43 | 0:00 |
| B. Carlo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 18:39 | 0:00 |
| P. Myers | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 9:18 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Hildeby | 30 | 27 | 3 | .900 | 63:08 | Win |
| J. Woll | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
WPG Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| V. Namestnikov | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:33 | 1:51 |
| K. Connor | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:44 | 3:51 |
| G. Vilardi | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 20:49 | 3:41 |
| A. Iafallo | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 17:36 | 2:41 |
| N. Niederreiter | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:32 | 2:19 |
| M. Scheifele | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 22:27 | 4:09 |
| J. Toews | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17:35 | 3:01 |
| C. Perfetti | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:06 | 2:06 |
| A. Lowry | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 14:29 | 0:00 |
| M. Barron | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 10:59 | 0:00 |
| T. Pearson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 8:55 | 0:00 |
| C. Koepke | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 8:02 | 0:00 |
| L. Stanley | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 17:37 | 2:02 |
| L. Schenn | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:27 | 0:00 |
| J. Morrissey | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 25:57 | 3:58 |
| D. DeMelo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 21:45 | 0:21 |
| D. Samberg | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 21:35 | 0:00 |
| E. Salomonsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 17:16 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Hellebuyck | 37 | 33 | 4 | .892 | 63:08 | OT loss |
| E. Comrie | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
TOR
Line 1M. Domi16:55B. McMann16:25A. Matthews16:41
Line 2J. Tavares15:14M. Knies15:38M. Maccelli12:06
Line 3N. Roy10:15N. Robertson10:28E. Cowan9:54
Line 4S. Laughton9:59S. Lorentz8:19C. Jarnkrok8:03
Pair 1J. McCabe21:13T. Stecher19:06
Pair 2O. Ekman-Larsson21:39B. Carlo16:26
WPG
Line 1M. Scheifele16:39K. Connor15:23A. Iafallo14:33
Line 2G. Vilardi15:59C. Perfetti15:00J. Toews13:46
Line 3N. Niederreiter12:13A. Lowry12:23V. Namestnikov11:42
Line 4T. Pearson7:50M. Barron8:47C. Koepke5:36
Pair 1D. DeMelo19:12J. Morrissey20:36
Pair 2D. Samberg17:39E. Salomonsson17:16
Pair 3L. Schenn11:38L. Stanley13:48
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | TOR 2.9, WPG 3.3 | TOR 4, WPG 3 |
| Total goals | 6.2 | 7 |
| Shots on goal | TOR 24.9, WPG 29.7 | TOR 37, WPG 30 |
| Win chance | WPG 57% | TOR won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR A. Matthews | 3.6 | 5 | 1.00 | 2 | 40% | 1 |
| WPG K. Connor | 3.3 | 5 | 1.11 | 1 | 36% | 1 |
| WPG M. Scheifele | 2.3 | 2 | 1.08 | 0 | 35% | 0 |
| TOR B. McMann | 2.3 | 2 | 0.50 | 1 | 23% | 1 |
| TOR J. Tavares | 2.2 | 1 | 0.74 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| WPG J. Morrissey | 2.1 | 1 | 0.86 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| WPG G. Vilardi | 2.1 | 1 | 0.79 | 1 | 29% | 0 |
| WPG M. Barron | 1.9 | 2 | 0.36 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| TOR M. Knies | 1.8 | 1 | 0.67 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| WPG C. Perfetti | 1.8 | 0 | 0.49 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| WPG N. Niederreiter | 1.7 | 3 | 0.40 | 1 | 18% | 1 |
| TOR M. Rielly | 1.7 | 1 | 0.57 | 2 | 11% | 0 |
| WPG A. Iafallo | 1.6 | 4 | 0.43 | 1 | 18% | 1 |
| WPG J. Toews | 1.6 | 3 | 0.48 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| TOR M. Domi | 1.5 | 5 | 0.50 | 2 | 13% | 1 |
| TOR M. Maccelli | 1.5 | 1 | 0.54 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| TOR O. Ekman-Larsson | 1.5 | 1 | 0.46 | 3 | 9% | 1 |
| WPG D. Samberg | 1.4 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| WPG A. Lowry | 1.3 | 2 | 0.38 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| TOR N. Robertson | 1.3 | 2 | 0.33 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| TOR E. Cowan | 1.3 | 2 | 0.33 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| WPG C. Koepke | 1.2 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| TOR S. Laughton | 1.2 | 0 | 0.32 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| WPG T. Pearson | 1.2 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| TOR P. Myers | 1.2 | 1 | 0.13 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| WPG V. Namestnikov | 1.2 | 2 | 0.35 | 2 | 13% | 0 |
| TOR N. Roy | 1.1 | 1 | 0.36 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| WPG L. Stanley | 1.1 | 0 | 0.27 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| WPG E. Salomonsson | 1.1 | 1 | 0.15 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| TOR S. Lorentz | 1.0 | 4 | 0.25 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| TOR B. Carlo | 1.0 | 4 | 0.16 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| WPG D. DeMelo | 1.0 | 0 | 0.34 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| TOR T. Stecher | 1.0 | 4 | 0.21 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| WPG L. Schenn | 0.9 | 1 | 0.14 | 1 | 3% | 0 |
| TOR J. McCabe | 0.9 | 1 | 0.35 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| TOR C. Jarnkrok | 0.9 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.