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Game Recap
UTA0
FinalThu, Nov 21, 2024Every game that night
BOS1

BOS beat UTA 1-0, and the chances backed it up: 3.71 expected goals to 2.11. BOS outshot UTA 31 to 22. P. Zacha had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.8. J. Korpisalo stopped 22 of 22.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
UTA0000
BOS0101
  1. 2nd 12:41BOSE. LindholmPP0.05 xG

Team Stats

UTABOS
22Shots on goal31
2.11Expected goals3.71
59Shot attempts63
165v5 shots on goal13
0/4Power play1/7
10Hits24
20Blocked shots14
24Penalty minutes18
9Giveaways17
9Takeaways7

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

UTA 2.11 xGBOS 3.71 xGGoal

00.511.522.533.541st2nd3rdBOS goal, 12:41

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

UTA21 on goal, 0 scored
BOS30 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

UTA Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
N. SchmaltzC0002000019:182:49
A. KerfootC0001030018:565:02
C. KellerRW0002000017:105:05
L. CooleyC0003100417:052:47
D. GuentherRW0001010016:445:25
M. MaccelliLW0000010015:435:05
L. CrouseLW0002200215:232:43
K. StenlundC0001010214:200:00
B. HaytonC0002010013:260:00
N. BjugstadC0000000013:102:22
J. McBainC0000100411:180:07
M. CarconeLW000000006:220:00
M. SergachevD0001010028:025:08
I. ColeD0001050021:540:00
O. MaattaD0000030020:050:00
M. KesselringD0002320217:202:47
M. LamoureuxD0003210016:260:00
R. BortuzzoD0001110107:020:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
K. Vejmelka31301.96858:17Loss
J. Stauber000–0:00

BOS Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
B. MarchandLW0114000019:416:34
E. LindholmC1011100019:116:46
D. PastrnakRW0115100019:116:46
P. ZachaC0005110020:276:20
C. CoyleC0001100219:074:34
M. GeekieC0002200214:544:40
J. BrazeauRW0003000014:104:40
T. FredericC0000310013:380:06
G. MerkulovC0001000012:424:25
J. BeecherC0001000010:490:11
C. KoepkeLW0000200210:180:07
M. KastelicC0000410127:530:23
C. McAvoyD0002110023:087:10
N. ZadorovD0001510019:511:17
M. LohreiD0001100019:424:57
A. PeekeD0002030016:450:06
B. CarloD0001140016:090:07
P. WotherspoonD0001120014:240:06
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
J. Korpisalo222201.00060:00Win
J. Swayman000–0:00

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreUTA 2.8, BOS 3.2UTA 0, BOS 1
Total goals5.91
Shots on goalUTA 27.2, BOS 28.8UTA 22, BOS 31
Win chanceBOS 57%BOS won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
BOS D. Pastrnak3.951.20143%0
UTA C. Keller2.520.83028%0
UTA D. Guenther2.510.65024%0
BOS B. Marchand2.340.87129%0
UTA L. Cooley1.930.53019%0
UTA N. Schmaltz1.820.70021%0
BOS E. Lindholm1.810.67125%1
BOS P. Zacha1.850.71022%0
BOS C. McAvoy1.820.61013%0
UTA L. Crouse1.720.39019%0
UTA M. Sergachev1.710.5709%0
UTA B. Hayton1.720.36014%0
UTA N. Bjugstad1.600.36016%0
BOS J. Brazeau1.630.46020%0
UTA M. Maccelli1.500.56015%0
BOS C. Coyle1.510.56020%0
BOS T. Frederic1.500.45019%0
BOS M. Geekie1.420.45017%0
UTA M. Carcone1.400.28016%0
BOS N. Zadorov1.410.34011%0
UTA A. Kerfoot1.410.44014%0
UTA M. Kesselring1.320.3307%0
BOS C. Koepke1.200.33013%0
UTA K. Stenlund1.110.17010%0
BOS G. Merkulov1.110.29012%0
BOS M. Lohrei1.110.3908%0
BOS B. Carlo1.110.2207%0
BOS M. Kastelic1.000.29013%0
UTA J. McBain0.800.33012%0
UTA I. Cole0.810.2004%0
BOS A. Peeke0.820.1604%0
UTA M. Lamoureux0.830.1705%0
BOS J. Beecher0.710.25012%0
BOS P. Wotherspoon0.710.1702%0
UTA O. Maatta0.700.2004%0
UTA R. Bortuzzo0.410.0602%0

Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.