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Game Recap
UTA1
FinalThu, Oct 8, 2026Every game that night
BOS6

BOS beat UTA 6-1 despite fewer good chances: 2.46 expected goals to 4.30. UTA outshot BOS 37 to 22. D. Pastrnak led the way with 4 points (2 G, 2 A). M. Carcone had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 1.8. J. Swayman stopped 36 of 37.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
UTA0011
BOS3306
  1. 1st 10:06BOSC. Mittelstadt0.09 xG
  2. 1st 14:22BOSD. PastrnakPP0.07 xG
  3. 1st 15:51BOSM. Lohrei0.08 xG
  4. 2nd 4:40BOSD. PastrnakPP0.14 xG
  5. 2nd 7:57BOSM. GeekiePP0.15 xG
  6. 2nd 14:08BOSM. Poitras0.15 xG
  7. 3rd 9:48UTAJ. McBain0.32 xG

Team Stats

UTABOS
37Shots on goal22
4.30Expected goals2.46
80Shot attempts35
265v5 shots on goal19
0/7Power play3/4
19Hits23
6Blocked shots23
8Penalty minutes14
12Giveaways17
3Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

UTA 4.30 xGBOS 2.46 xGGoal

012341st2nd3rdBOS goal, 10:06BOS goal, 14:22BOS goal, 15:51BOS goal, 4:40BOS goal, 7:57BOS goal, 14:08UTA goal, 9:48

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

UTA37 on goal, 1 scored
BOS22 on goal, 6 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

UTA Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
B. HaytonC0113000014:412:17
J. McBainC101330+1013:500:15
L. CooleyC000010-1020:309:14
N. SchmaltzC000310-1019:528:35
C. KellerRW000410-1219:418:55
D. GuentherRW000000-1018:328:51
V. TrocheckC000320-2217:024:50
A. LeeLW000121-1015:194:18
L. CrouseLW000121+1214:420:15
M. CarconeLW0007000213:104:38
K. StenlundC000111-1012:270:00
D. ButLW0003000010:012:27
D. SimashevD0112110014:360:15
M. SergachevD000031-1023:168:30
J. MarinoD000100-1019:334:39
N. SchmidtD000201-1018:480:17
M. WeegarD0002100017:310:24
A. PeekeD000110-1012:560:15
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
S. Cossa853.62515:51Loss
K. Vejmelka14113.78643:49

BOS Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
D. PastrnakRW224420+1016:253:20
M. GeekieC1231100012:451:53
M. PoitrasC112201+209:510:41
E. LindholmC011021+1018:151:53
P. ZachaC0111100216:251:53
M. KastelicC011141+1214:050:20
J. HagensC011002+1011:371:23
C. MittelstadtC101101+1011:190:44
M. KhusnutdinovC000100-1015:230:00
F. MintenC000410-1015:220:00
T. JeannotLW000023+2213:580:24
J. PeterkaRW000000-1212:281:06
H. LindholmD0111010019:090:23
F. BrunetD011224+1018:422:27
M. LohreiD101203+1015:430:21
N. ZadorovD000131+1022:090:50
C. CliftonD000031+1021:370:42
W. BorgenD0001240620:470:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
J. Swayman37361.97360:00Win
M. DiPietro000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

UTA

Line 1L. Crouse12:44J. McBain13:05B. Hayton11:32
Line 2V. Trocheck11:47N. Schmaltz10:35C. Keller10:26
Line 3A. Lee10:44L. Cooley10:11D. Guenther9:24
Line 4M. Carcone8:32K. Stenlund9:34D. But7:34
Pair 1N. Schmidt16:10J. Marino14:54
Pair 2M. Weegar14:35M. Sergachev13:51
Pair 3D. Simashev13:10A. Peeke11:12

BOS

Line 1D. Pastrnak12:52M. Geekie10:49P. Zacha10:52
Line 2F. Minten10:44J. Peterka11:09M. Khusnutdinov9:21
Line 3E. Lindholm11:18C. Mittelstadt10:18J. Hagens9:44
Line 4M. Kastelic9:10T. Jeannot10:09M. Poitras8:59
Pair 1H. Lindholm13:29W. Borgen16:14
Pair 2C. Clifton14:03N. Zadorov12:38
Pair 3M. Lohrei14:15F. Brunet13:56

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

8 of 21 overs hit (38%).

PlayerLineOverUnderSOGResult
BOS D. Pastrnak3.5+120-1204Over
UTA C. Keller2.5+100-1254Over
UTA D. Guenther2.5-130+1200Under
BOS M. Geekie2.5+150-1801Under
UTA N. Schmaltz2.5+105-1253Over
UTA A. Lee1.5-150+1201Under
UTA B. Hayton1.5+125-1903Over
BOS E. Lindholm1.5-120+1000Under
BOS F. Minten1.5+110-1404Over
BOS H. Lindholm1.5+115-1301Under
BOS J. Hagens1.5+125-1400Under
BOS J. Peterka1.5-155+1250Under
UTA L. Cooley1.5-150+1250Under
UTA L. Crouse1.5-120-1201Under
UTA M. Carcone1.5-105-1407Over
BOS M. Kastelic1.5+120-1751Under
UTA M. Sergachev1.5-160+1300Under
UTA M. Weegar1.5+110-1252Over
BOS N. Zadorov1.5+120-1351Under
BOS P. Zacha1.5-135+1101Under
UTA V. Trocheck1.5-115+1003Over

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

Storylines That Played Out

  • Old teamJJ Peterka BOS Faces UTA, his team until May 20260 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreUTA 3.1, BOS 3.0UTA 1, BOS 6
Total goals6.27
Shots on goalUTA 28.5, BOS 26.1UTA 37, BOS 22
Win chanceUTA 51%BOS won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
BOS D. Pastrnak3.341.27440%2
UTA D. Guenther3.200.84032%0
UTA C. Keller2.841.00028%0
UTA N. Schmaltz2.630.85028%0
BOS M. Geekie2.210.85334%1
UTA L. Cooley2.200.81029%0
UTA A. Lee2.110.42019%0
UTA L. Crouse1.910.47022%0
BOS P. Zacha1.910.77125%0
UTA M. Sergachev1.800.66011%0
BOS J. Peterka1.800.59024%0
UTA M. Carcone1.870.36018%0
UTA M. Weegar1.720.3808%0
UTA V. Trocheck1.730.60020%0
UTA B. Hayton1.530.31112%0
BOS E. Lindholm1.400.54120%0
BOS F. Minten1.440.41018%0
BOS H. Lindholm1.410.4117%0
BOS J. Hagens1.400.39117%0
BOS N. Zadorov1.210.2706%0
UTA N. Schmidt1.220.2807%0
UTA J. McBain1.230.27111%1
UTA D. But1.230.21010%0
BOS C. Mittelstadt1.110.48116%1
BOS M. Lohrei1.120.3817%1
BOS M. Kastelic1.010.25111%0
BOS M. Poitras1.020.36211%1
UTA K. Stenlund1.010.24010%0
UTA A. Peeke1.010.1804%0
BOS M. Khusnutdinov0.910.35014%0
BOS W. Borgen0.910.2204%0
BOS C. Clifton0.900.2004%0
UTA D. Simashev0.820.1013%0
BOS T. Jeannot0.800.22010%0
UTA J. Marino0.710.3705%0

Shots on goal: 19 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.