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Game Recap
UTA4
CAR5
CAR beat UTA 5-4, and the chances backed it up: 4.05 expected goals to 3.12. CAR outshot UTA 33 to 25. K. Yamamoto led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). K. Yamamoto had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 0.8. B. Bussi stopped 21 of 25.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTA | 0 | 3 | 1 | 4 |
| CAR | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 |
- 1st 3:04CARA. Svechnikov0.21 xG
- 2nd 4:10UTAK. Yamamoto0.10 xG
- 2nd 8:24UTAK. Yamamoto0.40 xG
- 2nd 17:36CARS. GostisbeherePP0.04 xG
- 2nd 17:55UTAJ. Peterka0.05 xG
- 3rd 7:11UTAM. Carcone0.26 xG
- 3rd 18:01CARA. SvechnikovPP0.20 xG
- 3rd 18:33CARS. Gostisbehere0.07 xG
- 3rd 19:30CARJ. Staal0.62 xG
Team Stats
UTACAR
25Shots on goal33
3.12Expected goals4.05
43Shot attempts69
255v5 shots on goal24
0/2Power play2/5
28Hits23
19Blocked shots8
10Penalty minutes4
24Giveaways17
5Takeaways6
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
UTA 3.12 xGCAR 4.05 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
UTA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Yamamoto | RW | 2 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 11:25 | 0:00 |
| J. McBain | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 17:21 | 1:09 |
| M. Carcone | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 12:52 | 1:09 |
| J. Peterka | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:43 | 2:48 |
| B. Hayton | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 4 | 14:01 | 2:44 |
| L. Crouse | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 19:50 | 1:09 |
| N. Schmaltz | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 19:14 | 2:51 |
| C. Keller | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 18:11 | 2:51 |
| K. Stenlund | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 16:10 | 0:06 |
| D. But | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 12:44 | 1:07 |
| L. O'Brien | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:50 | 0:00 |
| B. Tanev | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7:25 | 0:00 |
| N. DeSimone | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 11:19 | 0:00 |
| M. Sergachev | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 24:29 | 2:53 |
| J. Marino | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 21:42 | 0:06 |
| N. Schmidt | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 20:44 | 0:00 |
| S. Durzi | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | +1 | 0 | 19:32 | 1:07 |
| I. Cole | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 17:57 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Vejmelka | 33 | 28 | 5 | .848 | 60:00 | Loss |
| V. Vanecek | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
CAR Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Svechnikov | RW | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 19:59 | 5:39 |
| S. Jarvis | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:50 | 5:35 |
| N. Ehlers | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:56 | 6:27 |
| J. Blake | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 15:46 | 2:48 |
| J. Staal | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:35 | 0:56 |
| J. Martinook | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:48 | 0:00 |
| S. Aho | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 21:15 | 5:39 |
| L. Stankoven | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 15:18 | 2:36 |
| T. Hall | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:29 | 2:40 |
| M. Jankowski | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 10:39 | 1:29 |
| W. Carrier | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 9:56 | 0:00 |
| J. Kotkaniemi | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 9:26 | 0:00 |
| S. Gostisbehere | D | 2 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 20:24 | 5:58 |
| J. Chatfield | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 19:56 | 0:06 |
| J. Slavin | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 19:28 | 0:00 |
| K. Miller | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:34 | 0:00 |
| S. Walker | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 2 | 17:13 | 0:00 |
| A. Nikishin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 16:27 | 2:21 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Bussi | 25 | 21 | 4 | .840 | 59:01 | Win |
| F. Andersen | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
UTA
Line 1C. Keller15:00N. Schmaltz13:27L. Crouse13:33
Line 2K. Yamamoto11:25J. McBain12:52M. Carcone11:43
Line 3D. But11:37B. Hayton10:41J. Peterka12:55
Line 4L. O'Brien10:50K. Stenlund11:12B. Tanev7:25
Pair 1N. Schmidt16:35J. Marino17:59
Pair 2M. Sergachev17:59S. Durzi17:52
Pair 3I. Cole12:21N. DeSimone11:19
CAR
Line 1S. Aho13:52S. Jarvis12:56A. Svechnikov14:20
Line 2L. Stankoven12:37J. Blake12:33T. Hall11:29
Line 3J. Staal12:14J. Martinook12:18N. Ehlers11:29
Line 4M. Jankowski8:41J. Kotkaniemi9:26W. Carrier9:56
Pair 2J. Slavin16:28J. Chatfield17:13
Pair 3S. Gostisbehere14:00A. Nikishin13:32
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | UTA 2.9, CAR 3.4 | UTA 4, CAR 5 |
| Total goals | 6.3 | 9 |
| Shots on goal | UTA 24.0, CAR 30.1 | UTA 25, CAR 33 |
| Win chance | CAR 58% | CAR won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR S. Jarvis | 2.7 | 2 | 0.82 | 1 | 32% | 0 |
| CAR N. Ehlers | 2.5 | 2 | 0.82 | 1 | 28% | 0 |
| CAR A. Svechnikov | 2.4 | 4 | 0.76 | 3 | 27% | 2 |
| UTA C. Keller | 2.3 | 1 | 0.90 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| CAR S. Aho | 2.1 | 3 | 0.91 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| UTA N. Schmaltz | 2.1 | 2 | 0.81 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| CAR S. Walker | 2.0 | 2 | 0.23 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| CAR S. Gostisbehere | 1.8 | 3 | 0.61 | 3 | 11% | 2 |
| UTA L. Crouse | 1.7 | 2 | 0.49 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| UTA J. Peterka | 1.7 | 1 | 0.61 | 1 | 23% | 1 |
| CAR L. Stankoven | 1.7 | 2 | 0.42 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| UTA M. Carcone | 1.7 | 2 | 0.39 | 2 | 18% | 1 |
| CAR J. Blake | 1.6 | 1 | 0.44 | 1 | 20% | 0 |
| UTA B. Hayton | 1.6 | 3 | 0.41 | 1 | 16% | 0 |
| CAR K. Miller | 1.5 | 2 | 0.41 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| UTA M. Sergachev | 1.5 | 2 | 0.56 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| CAR T. Hall | 1.5 | 1 | 0.46 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| CAR J. Staal | 1.5 | 2 | 0.45 | 1 | 18% | 1 |
| CAR J. Slavin | 1.4 | 1 | 0.31 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| CAR J. Chatfield | 1.4 | 5 | 0.26 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| CAR A. Nikishin | 1.4 | 2 | 0.35 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| CAR J. Martinook | 1.3 | 0 | 0.40 | 1 | 16% | 0 |
| UTA D. But | 1.3 | 2 | 0.25 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| UTA J. McBain | 1.3 | 1 | 0.34 | 2 | 13% | 0 |
| UTA S. Durzi | 1.2 | 0 | 0.36 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| CAR W. Carrier | 1.2 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| CAR J. Kotkaniemi | 1.1 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| UTA K. Stenlund | 1.0 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| CAR M. Jankowski | 0.9 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| UTA N. Schmidt | 0.9 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| UTA L. O'Brien | 0.8 | 0 | 0.12 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| UTA K. Yamamoto | 0.8 | 5 | 0.25 | 3 | 11% | 2 |
| UTA N. DeSimone | 0.7 | 1 | 0.14 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| UTA J. Marino | 0.6 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| UTA B. Tanev | 0.6 | 0 | 0.13 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| UTA I. Cole | 0.6 | 2 | 0.17 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 26 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.