Game Recap: UTA 5, CBJ 4 (OT), March 7, 2026

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Game Recap

UTA5

Final/OTSat, Mar 7, 2026Every game that night

CBJ4

UTA beat CBJ 5-4 in overtime despite fewer good chances: 2.29 expected goals to 3.13. L. Cooley led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). L. Cooley had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.7. K. Vejmelka stopped 27 of 31.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
UTA	1	1	2	1	5
CBJ	1	1	2	0	4

1st 7:25UTAM. Carcone0.11 xG
1st 19:25CBJD. Severson0.05 xG
2nd 12:12UTAD. Guenther0.08 xG
2nd 16:03CBJM. Olivier0.17 xG
3rd 3:00UTAA. Kerfoot0.02 xG
3rd 4:54UTAL. Cooley0.21 xG
3rd 13:38CBJA. Fantilli0.07 xG
3rd 14:08CBJM. Marchment0.16 xG
OT 2:08UTAL. Cooley0.17 xG

Team Stats

UTACBJ

25Shots on goal31

2.29Expected goals3.13

51Shot attempts74

215v5 shots on goal27

0/1Power play0/2

13Hits25

25Blocked shots11

16Penalty minutes34

19Giveaways19

7Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

UTA 2.29 xGCBJ 3.13 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

UTA24 on goal, 5 scored

CBJ31 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

UTA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. Keller	RW	0	2	2	1	0	1	0	0	18:29	0:56
L. Cooley	C	2	0	2	5	1	2	+1	0	18:02	0:00
A. Kerfoot	C	1	1	2	1	0	3	0	5	10:12	0:00
M. Carcone	LW	1	1	2	1	0	0	0	0	9:58	0:00
D. Guenther	RW	1	0	1	3	0	0	-1	2	18:18	0:56
L. Crouse	LW	0	1	1	1	1	2	0	0	17:02	0:00
K. Stenlund	C	0	1	1	0	0	0	+1	2	11:45	0:00
N. Schmaltz	C	0	0	0	1	0	3	-1	0	19:56	0:56
B. Hayton	C	0	0	0	3	3	1	0	2	15:34	0:56
J. McBain	C	0	0	0	3	3	0	+2	0	14:40	0:00
J. Peterka	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	14:04	0:00
K. Yamamoto	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	12:56	0:00
M. Weegar	D	0	1	1	1	2	3	0	0	23:21	0:00
J. Marino	D	0	1	1	0	1	3	-1	0	20:47	0:00
I. Cole	D	0	1	1	0	0	1	+1	5	18:07	0:00
N. DeSimone	D	0	1	1	0	0	3	+2	0	15:05	0:00
S. Durzi	D	0	0	0	3	0	2	0	0	23:06	0:56
N. Schmidt	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	21:02	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
K. Vejmelka	31	27	4	.871	62:08	Win
V. Vanecek	0	0	0	–	0:00

CBJ Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Fantilli	C	1	1	2	5	1	0	+2	0	20:04	2:05
K. Marchenko	RW	0	2	2	5	2	0	+1	0	19:58	2:07
M. Marchment	LW	1	1	2	4	2	2	+1	0	19:20	2:04
C. Coyle	C	0	2	2	2	2	0	0	2	14:58	2:07
M. Olivier	RW	1	1	2	2	2	0	+1	27	11:29	0:00
S. Monahan	C	0	0	0	2	2	1	-1	0	16:57	0:52
C. Garland	RW	0	0	0	1	3	0	-2	0	16:40	0:49
K. Johnson	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	15:45	0:51
C. Sillinger	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	+1	0	14:25	0:00
B. Jenner	C	0	0	0	0	5	1	-2	0	11:59	0:00
I. Lundestrom	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	11:40	0:00
M. Wood	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	11:05	0:00
D. Severson	D	1	1	2	1	0	0	+1	5	23:14	0:37
Z. Werenski	D	0	0	0	2	0	3	-1	0	26:53	2:20
I. Provorov	D	0	0	0	3	0	1	-2	0	23:22	0:36
D. Mateychuk	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	18:13	0:12
E. Gudbranson	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	+1	0	17:08	0:00
E. Zamula	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	11:14	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
E. Merzlikins	25	20	5	.800	62:08	OT loss
J. Greaves	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

UTA

Line 1N. Schmaltz16:45D. Guenther16:12C. Keller16:00

Line 2L. Crouse13:56L. Cooley17:03J. Peterka14:04

Line 3K. Yamamoto12:56B. Hayton14:03J. McBain14:31

Line 4A. Kerfoot9:30K. Stenlund9:59M. Carcone9:58

Pair 1M. Weegar20:38S. Durzi20:54

Pair 2N. Schmidt18:29J. Marino18:32

Pair 3I. Cole16:45N. DeSimone15:05

CBJ

Line 1M. Marchment17:14K. Marchenko17:07A. Fantilli16:43

Line 2C. Garland15:16K. Johnson14:54S. Monahan14:22

Line 3M. Olivier11:29C. Sillinger12:44C. Coyle12:03

Line 4B. Jenner11:59M. Wood11:05I. Lundestrom10:11

Pair 1D. Severson22:37Z. Werenski22:40

Pair 2I. Provorov20:34D. Mateychuk16:44

Pair 3E. Gudbranson16:24E. Zamula11:14

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	UTA 3.2, CBJ 3.2	UTA 5, CBJ 4
Total goals	6.3	9
Shots on goal	UTA 27.3, CBJ 28.1	UTA 25, CBJ 31
Win chance	CBJ 50%	UTA won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
CBJ Z. Werenski	3.3	2	0.89	0	18%	0
UTA D. Guenther	2.9	3	0.79	1	30%	1
UTA C. Keller	2.5	1	0.91	2	28%	0
CBJ A. Fantilli	2.4	5	0.67	2	27%	1
CBJ K. Marchenko	2.4	5	0.72	2	28%	0
UTA N. Schmaltz	2.3	1	0.84	0	27%	0
UTA M. Weegar	2.1	1	0.48	1	12%	0
UTA J. Peterka	1.9	1	0.59	0	24%	0
UTA B. Hayton	1.9	3	0.47	0	17%	0
CBJ C. Coyle	1.9	2	0.65	2	22%	0
UTA L. Crouse	1.8	1	0.47	1	22%	0
CBJ B. Jenner	1.8	0	0.46	0	21%	0
UTA L. Cooley	1.7	5	0.61	2	23%	2
CBJ M. Marchment	1.7	4	0.59	2	23%	1
CBJ I. Provorov	1.7	3	0.39	0	9%	0
CBJ C. Garland	1.7	1	0.45	0	18%	0
CBJ S. Monahan	1.7	2	0.58	0	20%	0
UTA M. Carcone	1.6	1	0.38	2	18%	1
CBJ C. Sillinger	1.6	1	0.38	0	13%	0
UTA S. Durzi	1.6	3	0.45	0	11%	0
CBJ M. Olivier	1.4	2	0.39	2	17%	1
CBJ D. Severson	1.4	1	0.41	2	9%	1
UTA J. McBain	1.4	3	0.37	0	13%	0
CBJ K. Johnson	1.3	1	0.43	0	16%	0
CBJ M. Wood	1.2	1	0.23	0	11%	0
CBJ D. Mateychuk	1.2	0	0.36	0	10%	0
CBJ E. Gudbranson	1.1	0	0.24	0	5%	0
UTA N. Schmidt	1.1	1	0.31	0	8%	0
UTA K. Yamamoto	1.1	0	0.33	0	14%	0
UTA N. DeSimone	1.0	0	0.19	1	6%	0
UTA K. Stenlund	1.0	0	0.26	1	12%	0
UTA A. Kerfoot	1.0	1	0.29	2	11%	1
UTA J. Marino	0.8	0	0.39	1	6%	0
UTA I. Cole	0.8	0	0.21	1	4%	0
CBJ I. Lundestrom	0.7	1	0.18	0	8%	0
CBJ E. Zamula	0.5	0	0.15	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.