Game Recap: UTA 5, CGY 3, January 2, 2025

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Game Recap

UTA5

FinalThu, Jan 2, 2025Every game that night

CGY3

UTA beat CGY 5-3, and the chances backed it up: 4.01 expected goals to 1.87. L. Crouse led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). M. Coronato had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.2. K. Vejmelka stopped 23 of 26.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
UTA	1	1	3	5
CGY	1	2	0	3

1st 8:51UTAL. Crouse0.11 xG
1st 19:12CGYB. ColemanPP0.48 xG
2nd 6:19UTAL. CooleyPP0.13 xG
2nd 7:26CGYC. Zary0.03 xG
2nd 15:14CGYB. Pachal0.17 xG
3rd 0:37UTAC. Keller0.11 xG
3rd 2:35UTAL. Crouse0.14 xG
3rd 19:00UTAK. StenlundEN0.94 xG

Team Stats

UTACGY

26Shots on goal26

4.01Expected goals1.87

48Shot attempts48

205v5 shots on goal19

1/3Power play1/4

21Hits36

16Blocked shots11

18Penalty minutes18

22Giveaways12

5Takeaways7

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

UTA 4.01 xGCGY 1.87 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

UTA26 on goal, 5 scored

CGY26 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

UTA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. Keller	RW	1	1	2	3	0	1	+1	2	17:51	3:19
L. Crouse	LW	2	0	2	3	3	1	+2	0	12:22	1:37
L. Cooley	C	1	0	1	2	0	1	0	0	19:38	3:16
D. Guenther	RW	0	1	1	2	1	1	+1	0	17:22	3:21
B. Hayton	C	0	1	1	0	1	0	+2	0	16:43	1:47
A. Kerfoot	C	0	1	1	0	2	0	-1	0	14:34	0:00
K. Stenlund	C	1	0	1	1	1	1	-1	0	14:31	0:00
N. Bjugstad	C	0	1	1	2	3	1	+2	2	11:26	1:37
N. Schmaltz	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	19:52	3:05
J. McBain	C	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	0	16:00	0:00
M. Carcone	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	9:21	1:38
L. O'Brien	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	+1	10	6:40	0:00
O. Maatta	D	0	2	2	1	0	1	+2	0	22:33	0:00
M. Sergachev	D	0	1	1	3	0	3	+2	0	27:14	2:49
I. Cole	D	0	1	1	0	1	3	+1	0	21:23	0:02
M. Kesselring	D	0	0	0	1	4	1	-1	2	19:08	2:04
J. Välimäki	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	2	16:52	0:00
R. Bortuzzo	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	8:25	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
K. Vejmelka	26	23	3	.885	59:34	Win
J. Stauber	0	0	0	–	0:00

CGY Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
B. Coleman	LW	1	1	2	1	2	0	0	0	17:43	3:01
Y. Sharangovich	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	0	19:01	3:01
M. Coronato	RW	0	1	1	6	2	1	-1	2	17:47	3:00
C. Zary	C	1	0	1	4	0	0	+1	0	17:23	3:14
N. Kadri	C	0	1	1	6	1	0	-1	12	15:30	2:42
M. Backlund	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	19:27	3:15
J. Huberdeau	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	18:03	3:47
M. Pospisil	C	0	0	0	0	7	0	-1	0	17:05	3:24
J. Pelletier	LW	0	0	0	1	1	1	+1	0	13:23	0:00
K. Rooney	C	0	0	0	0	3	1	-2	2	10:10	0:19
W. Duehr	RW	0	0	0	0	3	0	-2	0	9:07	0:10
R. Lomberg	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	-2	0	6:05	0:10
R. Andersson	D	0	1	1	2	1	3	-2	0	25:57	3:27
M. Weegar	D	0	1	1	1	7	2	-2	0	23:53	3:10
B. Pachal	D	1	0	1	2	2	1	+2	2	13:25	0:00
K. Bahl	D	0	0	0	0	3	0	-1	0	21:21	0:20
J. Hanley	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	14:45	0:00
J. Bean	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	14:28	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Vladar	25	21	4	.840	58:32	Loss
D. Wolf	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamMacKenzie Weegar UTA Faces CGY, his team until Mar 20261 A, 1 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	UTA 3.2, CGY 3.3	UTA 5, CGY 3
Total goals	6.5	8
Shots on goal	UTA 27.5, CGY 31.9	UTA 26, CGY 26
Win chance	CGY 52%	UTA won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
CGY N. Kadri	3.1	6	0.84	1	30%	0
UTA C. Keller	2.4	3	0.96	2	31%	1
CGY M. Backlund	2.4	0	0.52	0	19%	0
CGY B. Coleman	2.3	1	0.59	2	26%	1
CGY M. Coronato	2.2	6	0.53	1	21%	0
UTA D. Guenther	2.2	2	0.76	1	27%	0
CGY M. Weegar	2.1	1	0.51	1	11%	0
UTA L. Cooley	1.9	2	0.75	1	23%	1
UTA N. Schmaltz	1.9	2	0.81	0	24%	0
CGY R. Andersson	1.8	2	0.48	1	10%	0
CGY J. Huberdeau	1.8	0	0.81	0	24%	0
CGY Y. Sharangovich	1.7	1	0.50	1	23%	0
CGY M. Pospisil	1.6	0	0.42	0	13%	0
UTA M. Sergachev	1.6	3	0.64	1	10%	0
CGY C. Zary	1.5	4	0.50	1	19%	1
UTA M. Carcone	1.5	1	0.36	0	18%	0
UTA B. Hayton	1.5	0	0.42	1	16%	0
UTA M. Kesselring	1.5	1	0.35	0	7%	0
UTA N. Bjugstad	1.4	2	0.35	1	16%	0
UTA L. Crouse	1.3	3	0.35	2	18%	2
CGY J. Pelletier	1.3	1	0.31	0	11%	0
UTA A. Kerfoot	1.2	0	0.42	1	14%	0
UTA K. Stenlund	1.1	1	0.22	1	13%	1
CGY K. Bahl	1.1	0	0.25	0	4%	0
UTA J. McBain	1.0	1	0.40	0	16%	0
CGY J. Bean	1.0	0	0.21	0	5%	0
CGY B. Pachal	0.9	2	0.11	1	3%	1
UTA I. Cole	0.9	0	0.22	1	4%	0
UTA J. Välimäki	0.9	1	0.23	0	4%	0
UTA O. Maatta	0.9	1	0.24	2	5%	0
UTA L. O'Brien	0.8	2	0.16	0	6%	0
CGY W. Duehr	0.8	0	0.21	0	10%	0
CGY K. Rooney	0.8	0	0.14	0	8%	0
CGY R. Lomberg	0.7	1	0.12	0	8%	0
CGY J. Hanley	0.6	1	0.13	0	3%	0
UTA R. Bortuzzo	0.4	1	0.08	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.