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Game Recap
UTA0
CGY2
CGY beat UTA 2-0, with the chances close: 3.07 expected goals to 2.80. D. Wolf stopped 28 of 28.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| CGY | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
- 1st 0:16CGYY. Sharangovich0.41 xG
- 3rd 17:46CGYC. ZaryEN0.42 xG
Team Stats
UTACGY
28Shots on goal23
2.80Expected goals3.07
58Shot attempts51
285v5 shots on goal18
0/2Power play0/1
22Hits20
14Blocked shots19
7Penalty minutes9
17Giveaways11
4Takeaways8
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
UTA 2.80 xGCGY 3.07 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
UTA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Peterka | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 21:34 | 1:09 |
| C. Keller | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 21:23 | 1:20 |
| N. Schmaltz | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 2 | 20:33 | 1:20 |
| D. Guenther | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:57 | 1:22 |
| L. Crouse | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 15:53 | 0:53 |
| J. McBain | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 14:38 | 0:00 |
| M. Carcone | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:16 | 0:42 |
| B. Hayton | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:13 | 0:00 |
| D. But | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 13:25 | 0:38 |
| K. Stenlund | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:42 | 0:00 |
| K. Yamamoto | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:29 | 0:42 |
| L. O'Brien | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 6:47 | 0:00 |
| S. Durzi | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 24:19 | 0:47 |
| M. Sergachev | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 22:12 | 1:15 |
| N. Schmidt | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 21:43 | 0:02 |
| J. Marino | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 20:26 | 0:00 |
| I. Cole | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:53 | 0:00 |
| M. Lamoureux | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:27 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| V. Vanecek | 22 | 21 | 1 | .955 | 59:10 | Loss |
| K. Vejmelka | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
CGY Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Kadri | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 19:25 | 1:18 |
| C. Zary | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:12 | 0:42 |
| J. Farabee | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:23 | 0:00 |
| Y. Sharangovich | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:09 | 0:40 |
| J. Huberdeau | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 19:25 | 1:18 |
| M. Backlund | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 18:01 | 0:38 |
| M. Coronato | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:25 | 1:18 |
| B. Coleman | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 17:19 | 0:41 |
| M. Frost | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:47 | 1:18 |
| J. Beecher | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:24 | 0:02 |
| A. Klapka | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7:49 | 0:01 |
| R. Lomberg | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 7:21 | 0:00 |
| K. Bahl | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 23:28 | 0:04 |
| M. Weegar | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 5 | +1 | 0 | 23:27 | 0:42 |
| R. Andersson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 23:04 | 1:18 |
| Y. Kuznetsov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 22:15 | 0:00 |
| J. Bean | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 13:31 | 0:00 |
| J. Hanley | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:33 | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
UTA
Line 1C. Keller19:10J. Peterka19:34N. Schmaltz18:23
Line 2B. Hayton14:13D. Guenther14:07D. But12:47
Line 3L. Crouse13:41J. McBain14:00M. Carcone13:34
Line 4K. Stenlund10:25K. Yamamoto8:47L. O'Brien6:47
Pair 1N. Schmidt20:51S. Durzi22:37
Pair 2M. Sergachev18:53J. Marino19:48
Pair 3I. Cole14:36M. Lamoureux13:27
CGY
Line 1N. Kadri18:07J. Farabee15:43Y. Sharangovich12:50
Line 2M. Backlund15:51C. Zary16:53B. Coleman15:01
Line 3M. Coronato16:07M. Frost13:29J. Huberdeau17:17
Line 4J. Beecher8:44A. Klapka7:48R. Lomberg7:21
Pair 1M. Weegar21:49Y. Kuznetsov21:26
Pair 2K. Bahl21:22R. Andersson19:48
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | UTA 2.8, CGY 2.9 | UTA 0, CGY 2 |
| Total goals | 5.8 | 2 |
| Shots on goal | UTA 27.3, CGY 28.3 | UTA 28, CGY 23 |
| Win chance | CGY 52% | CGY won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY N. Kadri | 3.0 | 2 | 0.84 | 1 | 29% | 0 |
| UTA D. Guenther | 2.8 | 3 | 0.66 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| UTA C. Keller | 2.6 | 2 | 0.81 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| CGY M. Coronato | 2.2 | 0 | 0.58 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| CGY B. Coleman | 2.2 | 1 | 0.51 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| CGY M. Backlund | 2.2 | 1 | 0.54 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| UTA J. Peterka | 2.1 | 2 | 0.64 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| CGY R. Andersson | 2.1 | 4 | 0.54 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| CGY M. Weegar | 2.1 | 4 | 0.44 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| UTA N. Schmaltz | 2.0 | 3 | 0.64 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| CGY J. Farabee | 1.9 | 0 | 0.43 | 1 | 19% | 0 |
| UTA L. Crouse | 1.8 | 2 | 0.38 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| CGY M. Frost | 1.7 | 1 | 0.54 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| UTA B. Hayton | 1.7 | 0 | 0.39 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| UTA M. Sergachev | 1.7 | 3 | 0.54 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| UTA M. Carcone | 1.7 | 3 | 0.35 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| CGY J. Huberdeau | 1.6 | 0 | 0.73 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| CGY Y. Sharangovich | 1.6 | 2 | 0.50 | 1 | 23% | 1 |
| CGY C. Zary | 1.5 | 2 | 0.40 | 1 | 18% | 1 |
| UTA S. Durzi | 1.3 | 1 | 0.34 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| UTA J. McBain | 1.2 | 1 | 0.31 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| CGY Y. Kuznetsov | 1.2 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| UTA N. Schmidt | 1.1 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| UTA K. Stenlund | 1.1 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| UTA L. O'Brien | 1.1 | 2 | 0.14 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| UTA M. Lamoureux | 1.0 | 1 | 0.19 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| CGY J. Bean | 1.0 | 1 | 0.16 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| CGY K. Bahl | 1.0 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| CGY A. Klapka | 1.0 | 2 | 0.24 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| UTA K. Yamamoto | 0.9 | 2 | 0.25 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| CGY R. Lomberg | 0.8 | 2 | 0.14 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| UTA J. Marino | 0.8 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| UTA I. Cole | 0.7 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| CGY J. Beecher | 0.6 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| CGY J. Hanley | 0.6 | 1 | 0.14 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 19 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.