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Game Recap
UTA1
CHI3
CHI beat UTA 3-1, with the chances close: 2.73 expected goals to 2.40. UTA outshot CHI 22 to 14. I. Mikheyev led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). S. Knight stopped 21 of 22.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTA | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| CHI | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
- 2nd 9:21CHII. Mikheyev0.25 xG
- 3rd 1:02UTAJ. Peterka0.04 xG
- 3rd 8:55CHIA. BurakovskyPP0.13 xG
- 3rd 19:54CHII. MikheyevEN0.91 xG
Team Stats
UTACHI
22Shots on goal14
2.40Expected goals2.73
56Shot attempts29
195v5 shots on goal10
0/3Power play1/3
16Hits31
3Blocked shots14
6Penalty minutes6
17Giveaways16
1Takeaways2
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
UTA 2.40 xGCHI 2.73 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
UTA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Guenther | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:15 | 3:28 |
| J. Peterka | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 17:27 | 2:36 |
| C. Keller | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:45 | 3:24 |
| L. Cooley | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:25 | 3:23 |
| N. Schmaltz | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:43 | 3:18 |
| B. Hayton | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:58 | 2:42 |
| K. Stenlund | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:37 | 0:03 |
| K. Yamamoto | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:02 | 2:32 |
| J. McBain | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:45 | 2:29 |
| L. Crouse | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:01 | 0:00 |
| B. Tanev | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:55 | 0:00 |
| M. Carcone | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 7:39 | 0:00 |
| J. Marino | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 18:55 | 0:05 |
| M. Sergachev | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 24:49 | 3:25 |
| N. Schmidt | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:45 | 2:32 |
| O. Maatta | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:40 | 0:03 |
| D. Simashev | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17:28 | 0:00 |
| I. Cole | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:18 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| V. Vanecek | 13 | 11 | 2 | .846 | 59:40 | Loss |
| K. Vejmelka | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
CHI Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| I. Mikheyev | RW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 18:41 | 0:35 |
| T. Teravainen | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:50 | 1:18 |
| A. Burakovsky | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:38 | 3:02 |
| C. Dach | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 15:47 | 2:51 |
| J. Dickinson | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:23 | 0:30 |
| N. Foligno | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 13:44 | 2:14 |
| R. Donato | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:05 | 1:35 |
| C. Bedard | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 20:49 | 2:46 |
| F. Nazar | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:06 | 1:24 |
| T. Bertuzzi | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:01 | 1:17 |
| R. Greene | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:44 | 0:00 |
| W. Kaiser | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 21:49 | 0:01 |
| A. Vlasic | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 18:56 | 0:36 |
| M. Grzelcyk | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 16:26 | 1:23 |
| C. Murphy | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 16:16 | 0:00 |
| A. Levshunov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:54 | 3:01 |
| S. Rinzel | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 14:30 | 1:17 |
| L. Crevier | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13:31 | 0:35 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Knight | 22 | 21 | 1 | .955 | 59:50 | Win |
| A. Soderblom | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
UTA
Line 1N. Schmaltz13:35C. Keller15:01B. Hayton13:16
Line 2J. Peterka14:30D. Guenther13:27L. Cooley13:39
Line 3K. Stenlund13:48B. Tanev11:16K. Yamamoto10:49
Line 4L. Crouse10:18J. McBain8:23M. Carcone7:39
Pair 1J. Marino17:40N. Schmidt14:17
Pair 2O. Maatta17:37M. Sergachev19:09
Pair 3I. Cole12:03D. Simashev16:38
CHI
Line 1T. Bertuzzi14:44T. Teravainen13:25F. Nazar13:47
Line 2A. Burakovsky13:26C. Bedard17:29C. Dach12:45
Line 3J. Dickinson12:31I. Mikheyev15:23R. Donato11:30
Line 4N. Foligno9:37R. Greene10:59
Pair 2C. Murphy12:31M. Grzelcyk14:45
Pair 3W. Kaiser18:51L. Crevier11:20
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | UTA 3.5, CHI 2.7 | UTA 1, CHI 3 |
| Total goals | 6.2 | 4 |
| Shots on goal | UTA 30.4, CHI 24.0 | UTA 22, CHI 14 |
| Win chance | UTA 62% | CHI won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTA D. Guenther | 3.5 | 2 | 0.94 | 1 | 33% | 0 |
| UTA C. Keller | 2.9 | 1 | 1.09 | 0 | 33% | 0 |
| UTA L. Cooley | 2.4 | 0 | 0.86 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| UTA J. Peterka | 2.3 | 1 | 0.75 | 1 | 26% | 1 |
| CHI C. Bedard | 2.3 | 0 | 0.80 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| UTA N. Schmaltz | 2.3 | 3 | 0.80 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| CHI R. Donato | 2.1 | 0 | 0.60 | 1 | 23% | 0 |
| CHI F. Nazar | 2.1 | 0 | 0.67 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| CHI S. Rinzel | 2.1 | 0 | 0.43 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| UTA B. Hayton | 2.0 | 2 | 0.54 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| CHI I. Mikheyev | 1.9 | 3 | 0.47 | 2 | 22% | 2 |
| UTA M. Sergachev | 1.8 | 2 | 0.71 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| UTA L. Crouse | 1.7 | 0 | 0.34 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| CHI T. Bertuzzi | 1.7 | 0 | 0.58 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| CHI A. Burakovsky | 1.6 | 2 | 0.51 | 1 | 17% | 1 |
| UTA K. Stenlund | 1.5 | 0 | 0.36 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| UTA M. Carcone | 1.5 | 0 | 0.39 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| UTA J. McBain | 1.5 | 1 | 0.44 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| CHI T. Teravainen | 1.4 | 0 | 0.72 | 1 | 22% | 0 |
| CHI N. Foligno | 1.3 | 1 | 0.40 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| CHI C. Dach | 1.2 | 0 | 0.36 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| CHI C. Murphy | 1.2 | 2 | 0.20 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| UTA K. Yamamoto | 1.2 | 0 | 0.32 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| CHI W. Kaiser | 1.1 | 1 | 0.19 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| CHI A. Levshunov | 1.1 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| UTA N. Schmidt | 1.1 | 3 | 0.33 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| CHI M. Grzelcyk | 1.0 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| CHI A. Vlasic | 1.0 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| UTA B. Tanev | 1.0 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| CHI J. Dickinson | 0.9 | 3 | 0.25 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| UTA I. Cole | 0.8 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| UTA J. Marino | 0.8 | 2 | 0.32 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| CHI L. Crevier | 0.7 | 0 | 0.12 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| CHI R. Greene | 0.7 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| UTA O. Maatta | 0.7 | 1 | 0.19 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 15 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.6 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.