Game Recap: UTA 2, CHI 3 (OT), March 9, 2026

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Game Recap

UTA2

Final/OTMon, Mar 9, 2026Every game that night

CHI3

CHI beat UTA 3-2 in overtime, and the chances backed it up: 3.58 expected goals to 2.46. C. Bedard led the way with 2 points (0 G, 2 A). D. Commesso stopped 23 of 25.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
UTA	2	0	0	0	2
CHI	1	1	0	1	3

1st 9:43UTAB. Hayton0.07 xG
1st 13:46CHIA. Mangiapane0.14 xG
1st 16:26UTAD. Guenther0.12 xG
2nd 15:35CHIA. Burakovsky0.41 xG
OT 2:36CHIF. NazarPP0.13 xG

Team Stats

UTACHI

25Shots on goal26

2.46Expected goals3.58

52Shot attempts53

205v5 shots on goal23

0/2Power play1/4

24Hits20

10Blocked shots14

8Penalty minutes4

16Giveaways11

5Takeaways7

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

UTA 2.46 xGCHI 3.58 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

UTA23 on goal, 2 scored

CHI25 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

UTA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. Schmaltz	C	0	1	1	3	0	1	0	2	20:48	1:43
D. Guenther	RW	1	0	1	3	2	1	0	0	20:30	1:16
C. Keller	RW	0	1	1	3	0	0	-1	0	20:29	2:05
B. Hayton	C	1	0	1	2	1	1	0	2	14:40	1:47
L. Crouse	LW	0	0	0	1	5	0	0	0	15:18	0:45
L. Cooley	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	2	15:14	1:01
K. Stenlund	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	13:51	0:00
J. Peterka	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	13:13	0:59
J. McBain	C	0	0	0	1	4	0	+1	0	12:52	0:00
K. Yamamoto	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	12:38	0:00
M. Carcone	LW	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	0	10:45	1:00
A. Kerfoot	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	10:31	0:00
I. Cole	D	0	1	1	0	0	1	0	0	20:50	0:32
N. DeSimone	D	0	1	1	0	0	2	+1	0	14:17	0:00
J. Marino	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	+1	0	22:11	0:00
N. Schmidt	D	0	0	0	2	2	2	+1	0	22:02	1:05
S. Durzi	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	-2	2	21:26	1:42
M. Weegar	D	0	0	0	2	3	1	-1	0	20:13	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
V. Vanecek	26	23	3	.885	62:36	OT loss
K. Vejmelka	0	0	0	–	0:00

CHI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. Bedard	C	0	2	2	5	4	0	+1	2	21:06	4:07
R. Greene	C	0	1	1	1	1	3	+1	2	21:15	1:19
F. Nazar	C	1	0	1	2	0	1	-1	0	20:40	4:06
A. Burakovsky	LW	1	0	1	1	0	2	+1	0	18:45	1:46
I. Mikheyev	RW	0	1	1	3	0	0	0	0	18:36	0:00
T. Teravainen	C	0	1	1	2	0	0	-1	0	17:40	3:05
R. Donato	C	0	1	1	2	1	0	0	0	16:10	2:20
A. Mangiapane	LW	1	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	14:24	0:00
T. Bertuzzi	LW	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	0	16:51	3:41
S. Lafferty	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	8:05	0:01
N. Lardis	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	7:18	1:20
L. Slaggert	LW	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	7:07	0:00
S. Rinzel	D	0	0	0	2	2	1	+1	0	23:22	3:23
A. Vlasic	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	20:43	0:03
W. Kaiser	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	+1	0	20:22	0:00
A. Levshunov	D	0	0	0	1	3	2	-1	0	19:10	1:24
L. Crevier	D	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	17:17	0:00
M. Grzelcyk	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	16:30	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Commesso	25	23	2	.920	61:43	Win
A. Soderblom	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

UTA

Line 1C. Keller17:11D. Guenther18:13N. Schmaltz16:20

Line 2K. Yamamoto12:21B. Hayton12:38J. McBain12:16

Line 3J. Peterka11:40L. Cooley12:34L. Crouse11:25

Line 4A. Kerfoot8:20K. Stenlund9:27M. Carcone8:43

Pair 1N. Schmidt16:28J. Marino19:16

Pair 2M. Weegar17:31S. Durzi18:31

Pair 3I. Cole15:03N. DeSimone13:43

CHI

Line 1R. Greene16:59A. Burakovsky15:20C. Bedard15:37

Line 2A. Mangiapane14:24I. Mikheyev16:46R. Donato13:20

Line 3T. Bertuzzi12:35F. Nazar13:29T. Teravainen12:10

Line 4L. Slaggert6:07N. Lardis5:58S. Lafferty8:04

Pair 1S. Rinzel18:26W. Kaiser18:30

Pair 2A. Vlasic17:38L. Crevier15:20

Pair 3M. Grzelcyk15:30A. Levshunov15:27

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	UTA 3.4, CHI 2.5	UTA 2, CHI 3
Total goals	5.9	5
Shots on goal	UTA 27.3, CHI 23.0	UTA 25, CHI 26
Win chance	UTA 63%	CHI won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
UTA D. Guenther	3.0	3	0.86	1	32%	1
CHI C. Bedard	2.8	5	0.89	2	29%	0
UTA C. Keller	2.6	3	0.99	1	30%	0
UTA N. Schmaltz	2.4	3	0.90	1	28%	0
CHI F. Nazar	2.1	2	0.62	1	21%	1
UTA M. Weegar	2.1	2	0.53	0	12%	0
UTA B. Hayton	2.0	2	0.50	1	18%	1
CHI S. Rinzel	1.9	2	0.41	0	8%	0
CHI T. Bertuzzi	1.9	0	0.65	0	27%	0
UTA J. Peterka	1.9	2	0.62	0	25%	0
UTA L. Crouse	1.9	1	0.50	0	23%	0
UTA L. Cooley	1.9	1	0.68	0	26%	0
UTA M. Carcone	1.6	2	0.40	0	19%	0
UTA S. Durzi	1.6	0	0.51	0	12%	0
CHI I. Mikheyev	1.5	3	0.41	1	20%	0
UTA J. McBain	1.4	1	0.39	0	14%	0
CHI L. Crevier	1.4	1	0.20	0	6%	0
CHI R. Greene	1.4	1	0.33	1	14%	0
CHI T. Teravainen	1.3	2	0.61	1	21%	0
CHI R. Donato	1.3	2	0.40	1	18%	0
CHI N. Lardis	1.3	0	0.26	0	14%	0
CHI A. Burakovsky	1.2	1	0.43	1	15%	1
CHI A. Levshunov	1.2	1	0.34	0	4%	0
UTA N. Schmidt	1.1	2	0.34	0	9%	0
UTA K. Yamamoto	1.1	1	0.35	0	15%	0
CHI A. Vlasic	1.1	1	0.24	0	3%	0
UTA N. DeSimone	1.0	0	0.23	1	6%	0
UTA A. Kerfoot	1.0	1	0.32	0	11%	0
UTA K. Stenlund	1.0	0	0.27	0	12%	0
CHI W. Kaiser	0.9	1	0.16	0	5%	0
CHI M. Grzelcyk	0.9	2	0.22	0	2%	0
CHI L. Slaggert	0.9	1	0.17	0	8%	0
CHI A. Mangiapane	0.8	1	0.24	1	12%	1
UTA J. Marino	0.8	1	0.44	0	6%	0
UTA I. Cole	0.8	0	0.24	1	4%	0
CHI S. Lafferty	0.6	0	0.15	0	8%	0

Shots on goal: 30 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.