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Game Recap
UTA4
COL1
UTA beat COL 4-1 despite fewer good chances: 1.94 expected goals to 2.51. D. Guenther led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). K. Vejmelka stopped 23 of 24.
Team Stats
UTACOL
23Shots on goal24
1.94Expected goals2.51
43Shot attempts65
215v5 shots on goal17
1/2Power play0/3
10Hits23
23Blocked shots11
6Penalty minutes4
15Giveaways20
6Takeaways16
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
UTA 1.94 xGCOL 2.51 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
UTA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Guenther | RW | 2 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 4 | 14:57 | 0:57 |
| L. Cooley | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 17:38 | 0:57 |
| N. Schmaltz | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 17:18 | 0:57 |
| K. Stenlund | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 16:21 | 0:00 |
| L. Crouse | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 11:27 | 0:00 |
| A. Kerfoot | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:47 | 0:00 |
| C. Keller | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:20 | 0:57 |
| B. Hayton | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:06 | 0:00 |
| J. McBain | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 15:14 | 0:00 |
| M. Maccelli | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:51 | 0:00 |
| N. Bjugstad | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10:17 | 0:00 |
| M. Carcone | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:04 | 0:00 |
| I. Cole | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | +1 | 0 | 24:52 | 0:00 |
| M. Kesselring | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 18:50 | 0:00 |
| V. Kolyachonok | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 9:47 | 0:00 |
| M. Sergachev | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 26:56 | 0:57 |
| O. Maatta | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 2 | 24:29 | 0:00 |
| J. Välimäki | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:46 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Vejmelka | 24 | 23 | 1 | .958 | 60:00 | Win |
| J. Stauber | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
COL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. MacKinnon | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 23:37 | 2:51 |
| M. Rantanen | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 23:28 | 2:47 |
| A. Lehkonen | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 23:56 | 2:51 |
| V. Nichushkin | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:23 | 2:43 |
| C. Mittelstadt | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 18:55 | 2:03 |
| R. Colton | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 17:01 | 1:59 |
| J. Kiviranta | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:45 | 0:00 |
| L. O'Connor | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:25 | 0:00 |
| P. Kelly | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:37 | 0:00 |
| I. Ivan | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:44 | 1:54 |
| G. Smith | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6:30 | 0:00 |
| C. Wagner | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5:55 | 0:00 |
| D. Toews | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 27:53 | 2:05 |
| C. Makar | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 25:55 | 2:47 |
| S. Girard | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 22:39 | 2:00 |
| S. Malinski | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 19:10 | 0:00 |
| C. de Haan | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:23 | 0:00 |
| K. Middleton | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 9:20 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Wedgewood | 22 | 19 | 3 | .864 | 55:15 | Loss |
| M. Blackwood | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | UTA 3.0, COL 3.6 | UTA 4, COL 1 |
| Total goals | 6.6 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | UTA 26.2, COL 31.6 | UTA 23, COL 24 |
| Win chance | COL 59% | UTA won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL N. MacKinnon | 3.9 | 4 | 1.42 | 1 | 39% | 1 |
| COL C. Makar | 3.0 | 1 | 1.10 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| COL M. Rantanen | 2.8 | 3 | 1.20 | 1 | 40% | 0 |
| UTA C. Keller | 2.4 | 2 | 0.92 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| COL V. Nichushkin | 2.4 | 2 | 0.84 | 0 | 34% | 0 |
| COL A. Lehkonen | 2.3 | 3 | 0.81 | 0 | 32% | 0 |
| UTA D. Guenther | 2.2 | 3 | 0.74 | 3 | 26% | 2 |
| COL R. Colton | 2.1 | 1 | 0.55 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| UTA N. Schmaltz | 2.0 | 0 | 0.82 | 1 | 25% | 0 |
| UTA L. Cooley | 2.0 | 0 | 0.66 | 2 | 22% | 0 |
| COL D. Toews | 1.8 | 3 | 0.59 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| UTA B. Hayton | 1.6 | 0 | 0.41 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| UTA M. Sergachev | 1.6 | 0 | 0.65 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| UTA M. Carcone | 1.5 | 1 | 0.34 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| UTA N. Bjugstad | 1.5 | 1 | 0.39 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| UTA L. Crouse | 1.5 | 0 | 0.38 | 1 | 19% | 0 |
| COL S. Malinski | 1.5 | 2 | 0.26 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| COL C. Mittelstadt | 1.4 | 0 | 0.63 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| UTA M. Kesselring | 1.3 | 3 | 0.40 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| COL L. O'Connor | 1.2 | 0 | 0.32 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| COL S. Girard | 1.2 | 0 | 0.39 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| UTA M. Maccelli | 1.2 | 1 | 0.52 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| UTA A. Kerfoot | 1.1 | 1 | 0.42 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| UTA K. Stenlund | 1.1 | 3 | 0.21 | 1 | 12% | 1 |
| COL P. Kelly | 1.1 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| COL J. Kiviranta | 1.0 | 2 | 0.22 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| COL C. Haan | 1.0 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| UTA J. McBain | 0.9 | 1 | 0.41 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| UTA I. Cole | 0.9 | 2 | 0.22 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| UTA J. Välimäki | 0.9 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| COL I. Ivan | 0.9 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| UTA O. Maatta | 0.9 | 3 | 0.29 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| COL C. Wagner | 0.8 | 1 | 0.09 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| COL G. Smith | 0.7 | 0 | 0.11 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| UTA V. Kolyachonok | 0.5 | 2 | 0.18 | 1 | 4% | 1 |
Shots on goal: 18 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.