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Game Recap
UTA1
COL2
COL beat UTA 2-1, with the chances close: 2.63 expected goals to 2.54. D. Guenther had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 2.8. S. Wedgewood stopped 32 of 33.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTA | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| COL | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
- 1st 10:57COLR. Colton0.21 xG
- 2nd 17:48UTAD. GuentherPP0.10 xG
- 3rd 2:52COLN. MacKinnonPP0.07 xG
Team Stats
UTACOL
33Shots on goal27
2.54Expected goals2.63
61Shot attempts65
255v5 shots on goal23
1/3Power play1/4
19Hits20
21Blocked shots13
8Penalty minutes6
36Giveaways22
0Takeaways4
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
UTA 2.54 xGCOL 2.63 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
UTA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Keller | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 22:17 | 2:47 |
| D. Guenther | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:48 | 2:33 |
| N. Schmaltz | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:40 | 2:43 |
| L. Cooley | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 21:49 | 2:36 |
| J. Peterka | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:50 | 1:21 |
| J. McBain | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 17:01 | 1:24 |
| K. Stenlund | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:42 | 0:00 |
| L. Crouse | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:05 | 0:00 |
| K. Yamamoto | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:28 | 1:22 |
| B. Tanev | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 10:09 | 0:00 |
| A. Agozzino | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6:55 | 0:00 |
| M. Sergachev | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 24:21 | 2:28 |
| S. Durzi | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 20:53 | 1:30 |
| N. Schmidt | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 2 | 19:12 | 1:36 |
| J. Marino | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:00 | 0:00 |
| I. Cole | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 17:44 | 0:00 |
| D. Simashev | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:25 | 0:00 |
| O. Maatta | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:32 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Vejmelka | 27 | 25 | 2 | .926 | 58:10 | Loss |
| V. Vanecek | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
COL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Necas | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:20 | 5:47 |
| N. MacKinnon | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:16 | 5:43 |
| J. Drury | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:00 | 0:00 |
| V. Olofsson | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:20 | 1:15 |
| R. Colton | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 10:23 | 0:45 |
| A. Lehkonen | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20:50 | 5:31 |
| B. Nelson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:51 | 5:42 |
| V. Nichushkin | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:54 | 1:12 |
| G. Landeskog | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 14:23 | 1:30 |
| P. Kelly | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12:19 | 0:00 |
| J. Kiviranta | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:58 | 0:00 |
| G. Brindley | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8:32 | 0:00 |
| C. Makar | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 23:03 | 5:47 |
| D. Toews | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 23:31 | 0:36 |
| B. Burns | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 21:28 | 1:07 |
| S. Girard | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:47 | 0:00 |
| S. Malinski | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 13:39 | 0:00 |
| J. Manson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 13:27 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Wedgewood | 33 | 32 | 1 | .970 | 59:55 | Win |
| T. Miner | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
UTA
Line 1C. Keller17:40N. Schmaltz15:07J. McBain13:52
Line 2L. Cooley15:57D. Guenther12:31J. Peterka15:45
Line 3L. Crouse11:52K. Stenlund12:04K. Yamamoto10:17
Line 4A. Agozzino6:50B. Tanev9:41
Pair 1N. Schmidt16:04S. Durzi18:13
Pair 2J. Marino14:49M. Sergachev15:29
Pair 3I. Cole14:02D. Simashev14:25
COL
Line 1N. MacKinnon13:43M. Necas13:51A. Lehkonen12:47
Line 2G. Landeskog12:40V. Nichushkin11:55B. Nelson11:51
Line 3R. Colton9:38J. Drury13:24V. Olofsson11:05
Line 4P. Kelly10:48J. Kiviranta10:30G. Brindley8:32
Pair 3S. Malinski13:06J. Manson12:56
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | UTA 2.9, COL 3.5 | UTA 1, COL 2 |
| Total goals | 6.4 | 3 |
| Shots on goal | UTA 26.0, COL 30.2 | UTA 33, COL 27 |
| Win chance | COL 60% | COL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL N. MacKinnon | 4.2 | 4 | 1.47 | 1 | 40% | 1 |
| COL C. Makar | 3.1 | 2 | 1.08 | 1 | 26% | 0 |
| UTA D. Guenther | 2.8 | 7 | 0.73 | 1 | 27% | 1 |
| COL M. Necas | 2.7 | 0 | 0.93 | 1 | 29% | 0 |
| UTA C. Keller | 2.5 | 2 | 0.86 | 1 | 28% | 0 |
| COL V. Nichushkin | 2.4 | 2 | 0.71 | 0 | 32% | 0 |
| COL A. Lehkonen | 2.4 | 3 | 0.78 | 0 | 32% | 0 |
| COL G. Landeskog | 2.3 | 0 | 0.86 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| COL B. Nelson | 2.3 | 1 | 0.77 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| UTA J. Peterka | 2.2 | 2 | 0.69 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| COL B. Burns | 2.1 | 3 | 0.43 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| UTA A. Agozzino | 1.9 | 0 | 0.49 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| UTA L. Cooley | 1.9 | 1 | 0.62 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| UTA N. Schmaltz | 1.9 | 3 | 0.63 | 1 | 20% | 0 |
| COL V. Olofsson | 1.8 | 2 | 0.46 | 1 | 22% | 0 |
| COL D. Toews | 1.6 | 1 | 0.56 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| COL J. Manson | 1.6 | 0 | 0.32 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| UTA M. Sergachev | 1.5 | 5 | 0.54 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| COL S. Malinski | 1.5 | 2 | 0.23 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| COL R. Colton | 1.5 | 4 | 0.38 | 1 | 17% | 1 |
| UTA S. Durzi | 1.4 | 2 | 0.36 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| UTA L. Crouse | 1.4 | 2 | 0.26 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| UTA K. Stenlund | 1.3 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| COL J. Drury | 1.2 | 0 | 0.28 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| COL P. Kelly | 1.2 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| UTA J. McBain | 1.2 | 3 | 0.34 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| COL S. Girard | 1.1 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| UTA K. Yamamoto | 1.1 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| UTA N. Schmidt | 1.0 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| COL J. Kiviranta | 0.9 | 2 | 0.20 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| UTA B. Tanev | 0.8 | 1 | 0.19 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| UTA O. Maatta | 0.8 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| UTA J. Marino | 0.7 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| UTA I. Cole | 0.7 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 20 of 34 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.