Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!
Game Recap
UTA0
COL1
COL beat UTA 1-0, with the chances close: 2.55 expected goals to 2.05. J. McBain had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.2. S. Wedgewood stopped 32 of 32.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| COL | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
- 2nd 7:57COLS. Girard0.19 xG
Team Stats
UTACOL
32Shots on goal26
2.05Expected goals2.55
59Shot attempts56
255v5 shots on goal20
0/3Power play0/2
16Hits20
19Blocked shots21
4Penalty minutes6
16Giveaways20
3Takeaways5
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
UTA 2.05 xGCOL 2.55 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
UTA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Crouse | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20:11 | 3:01 |
| D. Guenther | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 20:05 | 2:59 |
| C. Keller | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 20:04 | 2:59 |
| N. Schmaltz | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:01 | 2:58 |
| B. Hayton | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:11 | 2:57 |
| J. Peterka | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 17:08 | 2:51 |
| D. But | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:55 | 3:01 |
| M. Carcone | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:36 | 3:01 |
| J. McBain | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:38 | 0:00 |
| K. Stenlund | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:05 | 0:05 |
| A. Kerfoot | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9:47 | 0:00 |
| L. O'Brien | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6:41 | 0:00 |
| M. Sergachev | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -1 | 0 | 22:11 | 2:59 |
| J. Marino | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21:23 | 0:00 |
| S. Durzi | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 20:35 | 3:01 |
| N. Schmidt | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 20:26 | 0:08 |
| I. Cole | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:44 | 0:00 |
| N. DeSimone | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:37 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| V. Vanecek | 26 | 25 | 1 | .962 | 57:42 | Loss |
| C. McIntyre | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
COL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. MacKinnon | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 21:45 | 2:48 |
| G. Landeskog | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20:16 | 2:53 |
| V. Nichushkin | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:19 | 1:06 |
| M. Necas | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:07 | 2:53 |
| B. Nelson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:29 | 2:49 |
| A. Lehkonen | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 16:30 | 1:08 |
| J. Drury | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:38 | 0:00 |
| P. Kelly | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:34 | 0:00 |
| G. Brindley | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 10:53 | 1:12 |
| V. Olofsson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 9:40 | 1:06 |
| R. Colton | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 9:19 | 0:00 |
| J. Kiviranta | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:12 | 0:00 |
| S. Girard | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:02 | 0:05 |
| C. Makar | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 24:31 | 2:49 |
| D. Toews | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 22:04 | 1:11 |
| B. Burns | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 18:53 | 0:00 |
| J. Manson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 18:22 | 0:00 |
| S. Malinski | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 15:26 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Wedgewood | 32 | 32 | 0 | 1.000 | 60:00 | Win |
| M. Blackwood | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
UTA
Line 1N. Schmaltz13:51C. Keller14:53J. Peterka14:12
Line 2D. Guenther14:48B. Hayton13:41L. Crouse12:51
Line 3J. McBain11:44D. But10:44M. Carcone11:29
Line 4A. Kerfoot7:56K. Stenlund10:20L. O'Brien6:41
Pair 1J. Marino19:44N. Schmidt18:18
Pair 2M. Sergachev15:27S. Durzi17:02
Pair 3I. Cole13:12N. DeSimone11:37
COL
Line 1G. Landeskog15:41N. MacKinnon17:27M. Necas14:58
Line 2B. Nelson12:34A. Lehkonen13:58V. Nichushkin14:39
Line 3P. Kelly8:54J. Drury8:59J. Kiviranta8:15
Line 4G. Brindley9:36V. Olofsson8:34R. Colton9:19
Pair 3S. Girard15:38S. Malinski14:53
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | UTA 2.7, COL 3.5 | UTA 0, COL 1 |
| Total goals | 6.2 | 1 |
| Shots on goal | UTA 26.4, COL 31.4 | UTA 32, COL 26 |
| Win chance | COL 64% | COL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL N. MacKinnon | 4.3 | 1 | 1.58 | 0 | 44% | 0 |
| COL C. Makar | 3.0 | 2 | 1.06 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| UTA D. Guenther | 2.8 | 5 | 0.66 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| UTA C. Keller | 2.6 | 5 | 0.80 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| COL G. Landeskog | 2.5 | 5 | 0.92 | 0 | 33% | 0 |
| COL V. Nichushkin | 2.3 | 2 | 0.74 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| COL M. Necas | 2.3 | 2 | 1.03 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| UTA J. Peterka | 2.3 | 2 | 0.67 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| UTA N. Schmaltz | 2.2 | 2 | 0.70 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| COL B. Nelson | 2.2 | 1 | 0.82 | 0 | 33% | 0 |
| COL A. Lehkonen | 2.1 | 2 | 0.69 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| UTA M. Carcone | 1.8 | 2 | 0.37 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| COL B. Burns | 1.8 | 3 | 0.35 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| UTA L. Crouse | 1.8 | 3 | 0.37 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| UTA D. But | 1.7 | 2 | 0.18 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| UTA M. Sergachev | 1.7 | 2 | 0.52 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| COL D. Toews | 1.6 | 0 | 0.47 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| UTA B. Hayton | 1.6 | 1 | 0.32 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| COL S. Malinski | 1.6 | 2 | 0.31 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| COL R. Colton | 1.6 | 0 | 0.37 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| UTA S. Durzi | 1.4 | 2 | 0.34 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| COL V. Olofsson | 1.4 | 1 | 0.37 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| COL G. Brindley | 1.4 | 2 | 0.41 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| COL J. Manson | 1.4 | 2 | 0.30 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| UTA J. McBain | 1.2 | 4 | 0.27 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| COL P. Kelly | 1.1 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| UTA K. Stenlund | 1.1 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| COL J. Drury | 1.1 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| UTA A. Kerfoot | 1.1 | 2 | 0.29 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| COL S. Girard | 1.0 | 1 | 0.26 | 1 | 4% | 1 |
| UTA L. O'Brien | 1.0 | 0 | 0.13 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| UTA N. DeSimone | 1.0 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| UTA N. Schmidt | 0.9 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| UTA J. Marino | 0.8 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| COL J. Kiviranta | 0.7 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| UTA I. Cole | 0.6 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.