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Game Recap
UTA3
DAL4
DAL beat UTA 4-3, with the chances close: 3.62 expected goals to 3.02. M. Rantanen led the way with 2 points (0 G, 2 A). D. Guenther had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.8. J. Oettinger stopped 27 of 30.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTA | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| DAL | 1 | 3 | 0 | 4 |
- 1st 0:57UTAL. Cooley0.15 xG
- 1st 12:17UTAK. Rooney0.10 xG
- 1st 17:38DALR. HintzPP0.11 xG
- 2nd 8:16DALJ. Benn0.23 xG
- 2nd 9:18DALJ. Robertson0.39 xG
- 2nd 16:14UTAJ. McBain0.35 xG
- 2nd 18:33DALW. JohnstonPP0.21 xG
Team Stats
UTADAL
30Shots on goal28
3.02Expected goals3.62
48Shot attempts47
265v5 shots on goal20
0/2Power play2/5
22Hits19
10Blocked shots6
10Penalty minutes4
18Giveaways14
3Takeaways6
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
UTA 3.02 xGDAL 3.62 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
UTA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Guenther | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:35 | 2:11 |
| L. Crouse | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 16:17 | 0:20 |
| L. Cooley | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 15:24 | 2:18 |
| J. McBain | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:59 | 0:00 |
| K. Yamamoto | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 12:33 | 0:03 |
| M. Carcone | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 11:33 | 0:09 |
| K. Rooney | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 9:44 | 0:00 |
| N. Schmaltz | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 21:06 | 2:24 |
| C. Keller | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:07 | 2:20 |
| J. Peterka | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:23 | 0:17 |
| K. Stenlund | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 13:18 | 0:15 |
| B. Tanev | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 9:35 | 0:00 |
| J. Marino | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 20:50 | 0:00 |
| M. Sergachev | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 25:10 | 2:21 |
| S. Durzi | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 4 | 22:29 | 0:19 |
| N. Schmidt | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 19:37 | 0:19 |
| I. Cole | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 2 | 17:37 | 0:14 |
| D. Simashev | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 12:31 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| V. Vanecek | 28 | 24 | 4 | .857 | 58:25 | Loss |
| K. Vejmelka | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
DAL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Rantanen | RW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:14 | 4:12 |
| W. Johnston | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 20:12 | 3:45 |
| J. Robertson | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:37 | 3:51 |
| R. Hintz | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 19:22 | 3:59 |
| J. Benn | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:43 | 0:00 |
| J. Hryckowian | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:43 | 0:04 |
| T. Seguin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:15 | 1:18 |
| O. Bäck | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 13:25 | 0:00 |
| S. Steel | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 12:22 | 1:01 |
| M. Bourque | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:20 | 0:39 |
| C. Blackwell | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10:57 | 0:00 |
| R. Faksa | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 9:34 | 0:00 |
| M. Heiskanen | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 27:05 | 4:04 |
| A. Petrovic | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 18:44 | 0:05 |
| K. Capobianco | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:40 | 0:52 |
| E. Lindell | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 25:35 | 1:10 |
| L. Bichsel | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 20:15 | 0:05 |
| V. Kolyachonok | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 11:57 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Oettinger | 30 | 27 | 3 | .900 | 60:00 | Win |
| C. DeSmith | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
UTA
Line 1N. Schmaltz15:05C. Keller14:20J. Peterka15:33
Line 2D. Guenther12:49K. Yamamoto12:22L. Cooley12:16
Line 3L. Crouse12:08J. McBain12:31M. Carcone10:37
Line 4K. Rooney9:44B. Tanev9:35K. Stenlund10:43
Pair 1N. Schmidt17:02J. Marino18:30
Pair 2M. Sergachev17:53S. Durzi18:57
Pair 3I. Cole14:24D. Simashev12:31
DAL
Line 1T. Seguin15:07R. Hintz14:34J. Robertson14:04
Line 2M. Rantanen13:25W. Johnston15:08J. Benn11:57
Line 3M. Bourque10:41J. Hryckowian11:19O. Bäck11:56
Line 4C. Blackwell10:12R. Faksa8:38S. Steel11:12
Pair 1E. Lindell20:17M. Heiskanen18:57
Pair 2A. Petrovic17:07L. Bichsel18:41
Pair 3K. Capobianco11:48V. Kolyachonok11:57
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | UTA 2.9, DAL 3.0 | UTA 3, DAL 4 |
| Total goals | 5.9 | 7 |
| Shots on goal | UTA 28.6, DAL 24.6 | UTA 30, DAL 28 |
| Win chance | DAL 51% | DAL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL J. Robertson | 2.9 | 5 | 1.09 | 1 | 37% | 1 |
| UTA D. Guenther | 2.8 | 6 | 0.70 | 1 | 26% | 0 |
| UTA C. Keller | 2.5 | 5 | 0.84 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| DAL W. Johnston | 2.3 | 2 | 0.81 | 1 | 32% | 1 |
| UTA N. Schmaltz | 2.2 | 1 | 0.73 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| DAL M. Heiskanen | 2.2 | 3 | 0.75 | 2 | 13% | 0 |
| DAL M. Rantanen | 2.1 | 3 | 0.99 | 2 | 32% | 0 |
| DAL R. Hintz | 2.1 | 5 | 0.87 | 1 | 31% | 1 |
| UTA M. Sergachev | 2.0 | 2 | 0.57 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| UTA L. Cooley | 1.9 | 1 | 0.67 | 1 | 24% | 1 |
| UTA J. Peterka | 1.8 | 2 | 0.57 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| DAL T. Seguin | 1.8 | 0 | 0.69 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| UTA L. Crouse | 1.7 | 3 | 0.36 | 1 | 19% | 0 |
| UTA M. Carcone | 1.6 | 0 | 0.33 | 1 | 16% | 0 |
| UTA S. Durzi | 1.5 | 2 | 0.35 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| UTA N. Schmidt | 1.4 | 2 | 0.33 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| DAL A. Petrovic | 1.3 | 1 | 0.23 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| DAL M. Bourque | 1.2 | 3 | 0.33 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| DAL E. Lindell | 1.2 | 2 | 0.34 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| DAL J. Benn | 1.2 | 1 | 0.46 | 1 | 16% | 1 |
| UTA J. McBain | 1.1 | 2 | 0.29 | 1 | 12% | 1 |
| UTA K. Stenlund | 1.1 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| DAL S. Steel | 1.0 | 0 | 0.37 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| DAL J. Hryckowian | 1.0 | 2 | 0.33 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| DAL C. Blackwell | 0.9 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| UTA D. Simashev | 0.9 | 0 | 0.08 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| UTA J. Marino | 0.9 | 1 | 0.30 | 2 | 4% | 0 |
| UTA K. Yamamoto | 0.9 | 0 | 0.26 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| DAL L. Bichsel | 0.8 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| UTA I. Cole | 0.8 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| UTA K. Rooney | 0.8 | 1 | 0.13 | 1 | 6% | 1 |
| UTA B. Tanev | 0.7 | 1 | 0.16 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| DAL R. Faksa | 0.7 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| DAL K. Capobianco | 0.7 | 1 | 0.17 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| DAL V. Kolyachonok | 0.6 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| DAL O. Bäck | 0.6 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 25 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.