Game Recap: UTA 4, DET 1, December 17, 2025

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Game Recap

UTA4

FinalWed, Dec 17, 2025Every game that night

DET1

UTA beat DET 4-1, with the chances close: 3.16 expected goals to 2.45. C. Keller led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). J. van Riemsdyk had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.4. K. Vejmelka stopped 27 of 28.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
UTA	0	2	2	4
DET	0	0	1	1

2nd 1:44UTAC. Keller0.47 xG
2nd 14:17UTAJ. McBain0.17 xG
3rd 9:55DETE. FinniePP0.19 xG
3rd 15:52UTAD. Guenther0.58 xG
3rd 16:23UTAK. Stenlund0.14 xG

Team Stats

UTADET

28Shots on goal28

3.16Expected goals2.45

57Shot attempts59

245v5 shots on goal21

0/4Power play1/4

21Hits11

18Blocked shots15

8Penalty minutes8

12Giveaways15

4Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

UTA 3.16 xGDET 2.45 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

UTA27 on goal, 4 scored

DET28 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

UTA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. Keller	RW	1	1	2	3	0	1	+2	2	16:43	4:45
N. Schmaltz	C	0	1	1	2	0	1	+2	0	20:08	4:46
D. Guenther	RW	1	0	1	4	0	0	+1	0	17:03	4:37
K. Stenlund	C	1	0	1	1	0	0	+1	0	16:04	0:00
J. McBain	C	1	0	1	2	4	1	+1	0	14:45	0:00
J. Peterka	RW	0	1	1	0	0	0	+1	0	13:52	4:32
M. Carcone	LW	0	1	1	1	1	0	+1	0	13:44	2:52
L. Crouse	LW	0	0	0	0	4	0	+1	2	17:51	2:23
B. Hayton	C	0	0	0	2	1	1	+1	4	15:46	2:53
D. But	LW	0	0	0	3	1	0	+1	0	13:29	2:31
L. O'Brien	C	0	0	0	1	3	1	0	0	9:49	0:00
K. Yamamoto	RW	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	9:48	0:00
M. Sergachev	D	0	1	1	0	1	4	+2	0	22:32	3:52
S. Durzi	D	0	1	1	5	0	1	+2	0	18:10	3:19
J. Marino	D	0	0	0	1	0	3	0	0	21:29	0:30
N. Schmidt	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	+1	0	19:19	0:30
I. Cole	D	0	0	0	1	2	2	+1	0	19:01	0:00
N. DeSimone	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	+2	0	12:47	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
K. Vejmelka	28	27	1	.964	59:57	Win
V. Vanecek	0	0	0	–	0:00

DET Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
E. Finnie	C	1	0	1	3	1	0	-2	0	16:22	3:07
J. Leonard	LW	0	1	1	0	1	1	0	0	12:08	2:21
D. Larkin	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	-2	0	21:58	5:11
L. Raymond	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-2	0	19:05	5:19
A. DeBrincat	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	18:44	5:18
A. Copp	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	17:25	2:30
J. van Riemsdyk	LW	0	0	0	6	0	1	-1	0	15:01	4:37
J. Compher	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	2	13:23	0:00
M. Rasmussen	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	12:05	0:00
N. Danielson	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	11:38	2:25
M. Kasper	C	0	0	0	3	1	0	-2	0	11:15	0:00
E. Soderblom	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	2	10:19	0:00
M. Seider	D	0	0	0	2	2	3	-2	2	23:41	5:09
B. Chiarot	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	-1	0	21:59	0:04
S. Edvinsson	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	-2	2	19:59	0:00
A. Sandin-Pellikka	D	0	0	0	3	1	2	-1	0	17:15	2:34
A. Johansson	D	0	0	0	0	0	3	-1	0	15:03	0:00
J. Bernard-Docker	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	14:40	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Talbot	28	24	4	.857	60:00	Loss
J. Gibson	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

UTA

Line 1B. Hayton12:53D. Guenther11:50L. Crouse11:23

Line 2N. Schmaltz11:42C. Keller11:55J. Peterka9:20

Line 3M. Carcone10:49D. But10:55J. McBain12:06

Line 4L. O'Brien9:49K. Yamamoto9:48K. Stenlund11:38

Pair 1J. Marino17:46N. Schmidt16:17

Pair 2S. Durzi14:51M. Sergachev14:09

Pair 3I. Cole13:45N. DeSimone12:44

DET

Line 1A. Copp12:28A. DeBrincat13:15J. Leonard9:47

Line 2L. Raymond13:22D. Larkin12:42E. Finnie12:02

Line 3E. Soderblom10:10M. Kasper10:15N. Danielson9:13

Line 4J. Riemsdyk10:21J. Compher11:14M. Rasmussen9:07

Pair 1S. Edvinsson17:30M. Seider16:06

Pair 2B. Chiarot17:21A. Sandin-Pellikka14:41

Pair 3A. Johansson13:05J. Bernard-Docker11:01

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	UTA 3.0, DET 3.1	UTA 4, DET 1
Total goals	6.1	5
Shots on goal	UTA 27.0, DET 27.2	UTA 28, DET 28
Win chance	DET 51%	UTA won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
DET A. DeBrincat	3.0	2	0.86	0	33%	0
UTA D. Guenther	2.8	4	0.75	1	29%	1
UTA C. Keller	2.7	3	0.94	2	31%	1
DET D. Larkin	2.7	2	0.91	0	34%	0
UTA J. Peterka	2.5	0	0.81	1	29%	0
UTA N. Schmaltz	2.3	2	0.83	1	27%	0
DET L. Raymond	2.2	0	0.91	0	27%	0
DET M. Seider	2.0	2	0.52	0	8%	0
UTA M. Carcone	1.9	1	0.42	1	20%	0
UTA M. Sergachev	1.9	0	0.63	1	12%	0
UTA L. Crouse	1.8	0	0.44	0	22%	0
DET E. Finnie	1.7	3	0.41	1	18%	1
UTA B. Hayton	1.6	2	0.37	0	16%	0
UTA D. But	1.5	3	0.22	0	9%	0
UTA S. Durzi	1.5	5	0.43	1	10%	0
DET J. Riemsdyk	1.4	6	0.45	0	19%	0
DET A. Copp	1.3	3	0.47	0	16%	0
DET B. Chiarot	1.3	1	0.21	0	7%	0
DET M. Kasper	1.3	3	0.26	0	14%	0
DET S. Edvinsson	1.3	1	0.34	0	9%	0
DET M. Rasmussen	1.2	2	0.35	0	15%	0
UTA N. DeSimone	1.2	1	0.27	0	7%	0
UTA K. Stenlund	1.1	1	0.29	1	13%	1
UTA J. McBain	1.1	2	0.31	1	13%	1
DET N. Danielson	1.1	0	0.30	0	10%	0
DET E. Soderblom	1.1	0	0.26	0	12%	0
DET J. Compher	1.1	0	0.36	0	15%	0
UTA N. Schmidt	1.1	0	0.32	0	6%	0
DET J. Leonard	1.0	0	0.14	1	9%	0
DET A. Sandin-Pellikka	1.0	3	0.33	0	7%	0
UTA L. O'Brien	1.0	1	0.15	0	6%	0
DET J. Bernard-Docker	0.9	0	0.14	0	4%	0
UTA J. Marino	0.9	1	0.37	0	5%	0
UTA K. Yamamoto	0.9	1	0.26	0	12%	0
UTA I. Cole	0.7	1	0.22	0	3%	0
DET A. Johansson	0.7	0	0.12	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.