Game Recap: UTA 3, EDM 6, October 28, 2025

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Game Recap

UTA3

FinalTue, Oct 28, 2025Every game that night

EDM6

EDM beat UTA 6-3, with the chances close: 3.11 expected goals to 3.17. E. Bouchard led the way with 3 points (0 G, 3 A). S. Skinner stopped 20 of 23.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
UTA	2	1	0	3
EDM	0	5	1	6

1st 9:25UTAL. Cooley0.10 xG
1st 17:45UTAJ. Peterka0.03 xG
2nd 0:22EDMM. Ekholm0.05 xG
2nd 3:13EDMI. Howard0.21 xG
2nd 8:19UTAB. Hayton0.12 xG
2nd 13:33EDML. Draisaitl0.03 xG
2nd 14:10EDMT. Emberson0.13 xG
2nd 17:56EDMC. McDavid0.18 xG
3rd 17:34EDMC. McDavidEN0.64 xG

Team Stats

UTAEDM

23Shots on goal24

3.17Expected goals3.11

53Shot attempts51

195v5 shots on goal21

0/2Power play0/1

17Hits19

14Blocked shots13

2Penalty minutes4

12Giveaways16

6Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

UTA 3.17 xGEDM 3.11 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

UTA23 on goal, 3 scored

EDM24 on goal, 6 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

UTA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. Schmaltz	C	0	1	1	3	0	0	0	0	23:04	3:27
L. Cooley	C	1	0	1	1	0	0	-1	0	18:06	3:27
B. Hayton	C	1	0	1	2	0	0	+1	0	17:55	0:33
D. Guenther	RW	0	1	1	3	0	0	-1	0	17:44	3:27
J. Peterka	RW	1	0	1	3	1	1	-1	0	16:54	1:26
C. Keller	RW	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	20:06	3:27
J. McBain	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	14:08	0:00
L. Crouse	LW	0	0	0	3	3	2	-1	0	13:55	0:33
K. Stenlund	C	0	0	0	0	2	1	-2	0	12:45	0:33
M. Carcone	LW	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	0	12:39	0:00
L. O'Brien	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	-2	2	8:08	0:00
B. Tanev	LW	0	0	0	0	3	0	-2	0	7:45	0:00
M. Sergachev	D	0	1	1	1	1	1	-1	0	26:19	3:10
N. Schmidt	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	-1	0	20:30	0:50
D. Simashev	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	-1	0	20:09	0:00
J. Marino	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	-1	0	19:46	0:00
I. Cole	D	0	0	0	2	1	2	0	0	16:08	0:00
O. Maatta	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	13:04	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
K. Vejmelka	23	18	5	.783	58:55	Loss
V. Vanecek	0	0	0	–	0:00

EDM Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. McDavid	C	2	0	2	3	0	0	+2	0	22:37	1:32
L. Draisaitl	C	1	1	2	4	2	0	+2	0	20:43	1:32
A. Henrique	C	0	2	2	0	0	0	+1	0	13:55	0:28
R. Nugent-Hopkins	C	0	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	20:08	1:32
I. Howard	LW	1	0	1	2	0	0	+1	2	9:17	0:28
J. Roslovic	C	0	0	0	3	1	0	+1	0	18:20	0:00
A. Mangiapane	LW	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	0	16:26	0:00
M. Savoie	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	+1	0	16:08	0:28
V. Podkolzin	RW	0	0	0	0	2	2	+2	0	16:02	0:00
T. Frederic	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	12:47	0:00
D. Tomasek	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	10:52	1:32
E. Bouchard	D	0	3	3	0	1	0	+3	2	18:53	1:39
J. Walman	D	0	2	2	1	0	4	+1	0	19:43	0:21
M. Ekholm	D	1	1	2	2	2	1	+3	0	18:57	0:28
T. Emberson	D	1	0	1	2	3	1	+1	0	14:58	0:00
B. Kulak	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	18:45	0:00
D. Nurse	D	0	0	0	1	0	3	-1	0	16:49	0:00
T. Stecher	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	10:41	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Skinner	23	20	3	.870	59:59	Win
C. Pickard	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

UTA

Line 1N. Schmaltz18:33B. Hayton17:21C. Keller16:26

Line 2D. Guenther14:05L. Cooley14:27J. Peterka15:16

Line 3L. Crouse12:13J. McBain13:25M. Carcone12:39

Line 4L. O'Brien8:08K. Stenlund10:57B. Tanev7:45

Pair 1M. Sergachev21:58D. Simashev20:09

Pair 2N. Schmidt18:34J. Marino18:56

Pair 3I. Cole14:59O. Maatta13:04

EDM

Line 1R. Nugent-Hopkins18:02C. McDavid19:18A. Mangiapane16:19

Line 2J. Roslovic18:19V. Podkolzin16:01L. Draisaitl17:24

Line 3A. Henrique11:36M. Savoie13:22T. Frederic12:47

Line 4I. Howard8:37D. Tomasek9:19

Pair 1M. Ekholm17:29E. Bouchard16:19

Pair 2B. Kulak16:27T. Emberson12:39

Pair 3J. Walman18:26D. Nurse15:56

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

HometownDylan Guenther UTA Plays in his hometown1 A, 3 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	UTA 3.1, EDM 3.4	UTA 3, EDM 6
Total goals	6.5	9
Shots on goal	UTA 26.9, EDM 29.6	UTA 23, EDM 24
Win chance	EDM 54%	EDM won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
EDM C. McDavid	3.1	3	1.64	2	38%	2
EDM L. Draisaitl	2.9	4	1.41	2	45%	1
UTA D. Guenther	2.8	3	0.80	1	28%	0
EDM E. Bouchard	2.8	0	0.84	3	18%	0
UTA C. Keller	2.4	1	0.92	0	28%	0
UTA N. Schmaltz	2.3	3	0.79	1	24%	0
UTA L. Cooley	2.1	1	0.79	1	27%	1
EDM D. Nurse	2.0	1	0.36	0	9%	0
EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins	2.0	1	0.80	1	24%	0
UTA J. Peterka	1.9	3	0.63	1	22%	1
EDM J. Walman	1.8	1	0.38	2	11%	0
EDM J. Roslovic	1.7	3	0.49	0	18%	0
EDM M. Ekholm	1.7	2	0.39	2	9%	1
EDM D. Tomasek	1.7	2	0.43	0	15%	0
UTA L. Crouse	1.6	3	0.32	0	18%	0
UTA B. Hayton	1.6	2	0.41	1	15%	1
UTA M. Sergachev	1.5	1	0.57	1	12%	0
EDM A. Mangiapane	1.3	1	0.42	0	19%	0
UTA M. Carcone	1.3	1	0.31	0	15%	0
EDM A. Henrique	1.3	0	0.37	2	18%	0
EDM V. Podkolzin	1.2	0	0.35	0	12%	0
UTA K. Stenlund	1.2	0	0.31	0	14%	0
EDM B. Kulak	1.2	2	0.23	0	5%	0
EDM M. Savoie	1.2	0	0.19	0	9%	0
UTA N. Schmidt	1.1	1	0.29	0	7%	0
UTA J. McBain	1.1	1	0.30	0	12%	0
EDM T. Frederic	1.1	0	0.27	0	14%	0
UTA D. Simashev	1.1	1	0.09	0	3%	0
UTA L. O'Brien	1.1	0	0.15	0	6%	0
EDM I. Howard	1.0	2	0.19	1	11%	1
UTA B. Tanev	0.9	0	0.20	0	10%	0
EDM T. Stecher	0.8	0	0.11	0	4%	0
EDM T. Emberson	0.8	2	0.18	1	3%	1
UTA J. Marino	0.7	0	0.29	0	4%	0
UTA I. Cole	0.6	2	0.18	0	3%	0
UTA O. Maatta	0.5	0	0.14	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.