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Game Recap
UTA4
FinalThu, Oct 15, 2026Every game that night
EDM2

UTA beat EDM 4-2, and the chances backed it up: 3.31 expected goals to 2.00. C. Keller led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). E. Bouchard had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.5. K. Vejmelka stopped 22 of 24.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
UTA1214
EDM0112
  1. 1st 10:38UTAB. HaytonPP0.06 xG
  2. 2nd 11:57UTAC. KellerPP0.15 xG
  3. 2nd 13:54EDML. Draisaitl0.11 xG
  4. 2nd 14:17UTAL. Cooley0.23 xG
  5. 3rd 1:40EDMS. Mukhamadullin0.02 xG
  6. 3rd 19:32UTAC. KellerEN0.51 xG

Team Stats

UTAEDM
25Shots on goal24
3.31Expected goals2.00
56Shot attempts58
185v5 shots on goal20
2/3Power play0/2
20Hits28
16Blocked shots16
4Penalty minutes6
14Giveaways6
3Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

UTA 3.31 xGEDM 2.00 xGGoal

00.511.522.533.51st2nd3rdUTA goal, 10:38UTA goal, 11:57EDM goal, 13:54UTA goal, 14:17EDM goal, 1:40UTA goal, 19:32

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

UTA25 on goal, 4 scored
EDM24 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

UTA Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
N. SchmaltzC022200+1019:152:26
C. KellerRW202402+1016:552:28
L. CooleyC112301-1015:592:29
L. CrouseLW011342+1016:390:28
B. HaytonC1011010015:010:48
D. GuentherRW011211-1015:012:27
K. YamamotoRW0114410014:350:51
V. TrocheckC0110200013:460:49
A. LeeLW0000010014:010:50
K. StenlundC000000-1013:580:30
J. McBainC0000400213:070:27
D. ButLW0001300010:470:00
J. MarinoD011001+1021:060:50
M. SergachevD0002000224:422:25
M. WeegarD0000140022:590:31
N. SchmidtD0002110022:240:31
A. PeekeD000101-1013:580:00
D. SimashevD0000000012:080:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
K. Vejmelka24222.91759:39Win
S. Cossa000–0:00

EDM Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
C. McDavidC011230+1025:522:07
L. DraisaitlC1013000023:002:09
M. JosephRW0110400012:480:11
O. MichaelsRW0110000012:020:15
V. PodkolzinRW0002320022:132:09
K. KapanenRW000131-1016:142:10
T. FredericC0000100013:431:36
A. FormentonLW0001700013:170:02
M. JonesLW0001020011:160:00
F. HallanderC0001200010:221:40
I. HowardLW0001000010:221:46
J. SamanskiC000000048:530:00
E. BouchardD0116000027:032:23
S. MukhamadullinD1011130013:581:01
M. EkholmD000212+1222:340:54
R. SheaD000103-1022:161:35
C. MurphyD0001010019:240:02
T. EmbersonD0001320012:520:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
D. Levi24213.87558:05Loss
T. Jarry000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

UTA

Line 1N. Schmaltz14:31C. Keller13:34L. Crouse14:07
Line 2K. Yamamoto13:41B. Hayton13:37A. Lee13:11
Line 3D. Guenther12:32L. Cooley12:16V. Trocheck11:33
Line 4K. Stenlund10:43J. McBain10:10D. But9:26
Pair 1N. Schmidt20:04J. Marino20:12
Pair 2M. Weegar18:05M. Sergachev18:47
Pair 3A. Peeke11:48D. Simashev11:33

EDM

Line 1L. Draisaitl18:58C. McDavid20:26V. Podkolzin18:11
Line 2M. Joseph11:20A. Formenton10:45O. Michaels10:35
Line 3K. Kapanen10:57T. Frederic12:07F. Hallander8:42
Line 4I. Howard8:15J. Samanski8:32M. Jones10:55
Pair 1M. Ekholm19:14E. Bouchard21:59
Pair 2C. Murphy16:55R. Shea17:29
Pair 3S. Mukhamadullin12:34T. Emberson11:56

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

7 of 17 overs hit (41%).

PlayerLineOverUnderSOGResult
EDM C. McDavid3.5+130-1402Under
UTA C. Keller2.5+114-1254Over
UTA D. Guenther2.5-135+1052Under
EDM E. Bouchard2.5-120-1026Over
EDM L. Draisaitl2.5-160+1303Over
UTA N. Schmaltz2.5+114-1402Under
EDM V. Podkolzin2.5+120-1452Under
UTA A. Lee1.5-135+1200Under
UTA B. Hayton1.5+100-1151Under
EDM I. Howard1.5+110-1501Under
EDM K. Kapanen1.5-125+1101Under
UTA L. Cooley1.5-140+1153Over
UTA L. Crouse1.5+110-1253Over
EDM M. Ekholm1.5+100-1202Over
UTA M. Sergachev1.5-128+1102Over
UTA M. Weegar1.5+105-1250Under
UTA V. Trocheck1.5+115-1300Under

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

Storylines That Played Out

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreUTA 3.2, EDM 3.3UTA 4, EDM 2
Total goals6.66
Shots on goalUTA 26.8, EDM 28.1UTA 25, EDM 24
Win chanceEDM 52%UTA won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
EDM C. McDavid3.321.65141%0
UTA D. Guenther2.920.86132%0
EDM L. Draisaitl2.731.41142%1
EDM E. Bouchard2.561.04117%0
UTA C. Keller2.540.99228%2
UTA N. Schmaltz2.420.86229%0
EDM V. Podkolzin2.220.69026%0
UTA L. Cooley2.030.85230%1
UTA A. Lee1.900.44020%0
EDM A. Formenton1.810.44020%0
EDM K. Kapanen1.810.56022%0
UTA L. Crouse1.730.49123%0
UTA M. Sergachev1.720.68011%0
UTA V. Trocheck1.500.63122%0
UTA M. Weegar1.500.3707%0
UTA B. Hayton1.510.36114%1
EDM F. Hallander1.510.39014%0
EDM M. Ekholm1.420.4608%0
EDM T. Frederic1.300.25013%0
EDM O. Michaels1.200.36116%0
UTA K. Yamamoto1.240.41117%0
UTA D. But1.110.20010%0
EDM C. Murphy1.110.2806%0
UTA J. McBain1.100.29011%0
UTA N. Schmidt1.120.2806%0
EDM I. Howard1.110.2208%0
EDM M. Joseph1.000.32111%0
EDM R. Shea1.010.4207%0
EDM M. Jones0.910.1908%0
UTA K. Stenlund0.900.27012%0
UTA A. Peeke0.810.1704%0
UTA D. Simashev0.800.1102%0
EDM S. Mukhamadullin0.810.1814%1
UTA J. Marino0.700.3815%0
EDM T. Emberson0.510.1302%0
EDM J. Samanski0.300.1606%0

Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.