Game Recap: UTA 1, FLA 2 (OT), March 28, 2025

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Game Recap

UTA1

Final/OTFri, Mar 28, 2025Every game that night

FLA2

FLA beat UTA 2-1 in overtime, and the chances backed it up: 3.63 expected goals to 2.01. FLA outshot UTA 32 to 15. S. Bennett led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). S. Bennett had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.9. S. Bobrovsky stopped 14 of 15.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
UTA	0	0	1	0	1
FLA	0	1	0	1	2

2nd 2:28FLAS. BennettPP0.45 xG
3rd 1:55UTAS. Durzi0.19 xG
OT 4:18FLAS. Bennett0.07 xG

Team Stats

UTAFLA

15Shots on goal32

2.01Expected goals3.63

47Shot attempts64

125v5 shots on goal21

0/4Power play1/6

28Hits28

12Blocked shots16

10Penalty minutes8

15Giveaways18

2Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

UTA 2.01 xGFLA 3.63 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

UTA15 on goal, 1 scored

FLA31 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

UTA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
B. Hayton	C	0	1	1	2	0	0	+1	0	16:10	0:21
N. Schmaltz	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	2	19:57	6:16
L. Cooley	C	0	0	0	3	1	0	-1	0	18:42	6:19
D. Guenther	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	2	18:11	6:29
C. Keller	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	2	17:49	6:19
A. Kerfoot	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	17:13	0:00
K. Stenlund	C	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	16:44	0:00
J. McBain	C	0	0	0	0	7	0	0	0	13:47	0:37
J. Doan	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	+1	0	12:34	0:27
L. Crouse	LW	0	0	0	0	7	0	0	0	11:28	0:14
N. Bjugstad	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	11:24	0:00
K. Yamamoto	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	10:28	0:22
S. Durzi	D	1	0	1	1	2	3	0	0	25:04	2:05
M. Sergachev	D	0	0	0	2	3	2	0	0	28:27	4:50
J. Marino	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	+1	0	23:31	0:00
I. Cole	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	2	22:12	0:00
M. Kesselring	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	2	12:43	0:00
O. Maatta	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	6:17	0:16

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
K. Vejmelka	32	30	2	.938	64:18	OT loss
M. Villalta	0	0	0	–	0:00

FLA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
S. Bennett	C	2	0	2	6	0	2	+1	0	21:36	7:00
A. Barkov	C	0	1	1	1	0	2	0	0	24:29	6:56
M. Samoskevich	RW	0	1	1	0	3	1	0	0	19:50	6:59
B. Marchand	LW	0	1	1	4	2	2	+1	0	16:30	2:16
S. Reinhart	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	24:21	7:13
C. Verhaeghe	C	0	0	0	3	0	1	-1	0	16:21	1:44
A. Lundell	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	15:13	2:08
E. Luostarinen	C	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	2	13:51	0:00
E. Rodrigues	C	0	0	0	3	3	0	0	0	12:06	2:00
N. Sturm	C	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	2	10:58	0:00
J. Boqvist	C	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	9:04	0:00
A. Greer	LW	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	2	6:29	0:00
G. Forsling	D	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	0	23:38	0:24
S. Jones	D	0	0	0	3	3	0	0	0	27:23	7:27
N. Mikkola	D	0	0	0	1	7	0	0	2	20:58	0:07
N. Schmidt	D	0	0	0	1	2	3	0	0	20:37	1:36
U. Balinskis	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	11:11	0:15
T. Bjornfot	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	10:39	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Bobrovsky	15	14	1	.933	63:58	Win
V. Vanecek	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamKevin Stenlund UTA Faces FLA, his team until Jun 20240 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	UTA 2.7, FLA 3.6	UTA 1, FLA 2
Total goals	6.3	3
Shots on goal	UTA 25.6, FLA 31.7	UTA 15, FLA 32
Win chance	FLA 65%	FLA won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
FLA S. Bennett	2.9	6	0.71	2	28%	2
FLA C. Verhaeghe	2.7	3	0.78	0	31%	0
FLA S. Reinhart	2.6	3	1.03	0	40%	0
UTA D. Guenther	2.4	1	0.59	0	25%	0
FLA M. Samoskevich	2.3	0	0.58	1	23%	0
UTA C. Keller	2.3	1	0.80	0	27%	0
FLA A. Barkov	2.2	1	1.07	1	30%	0
FLA B. Marchand	2.2	4	0.76	1	27%	0
FLA G. Forsling	2.1	1	0.46	1	13%	0
FLA S. Jones	2.1	3	0.57	0	13%	0
FLA E. Rodrigues	2.0	3	0.48	0	19%	0
UTA L. Cooley	1.9	3	0.62	0	23%	0
UTA N. Schmaltz	1.9	1	0.64	0	21%	0
UTA B. Hayton	1.6	2	0.38	1	15%	0
FLA A. Lundell	1.6	1	0.56	0	18%	0
UTA M. Sergachev	1.5	2	0.52	0	9%	0
UTA J. Doan	1.4	1	0.34	0	14%	0
UTA S. Durzi	1.4	1	0.35	1	7%	1
UTA M. Kesselring	1.3	0	0.25	0	5%	0
UTA L. Crouse	1.3	0	0.25	0	15%	0
FLA N. Mikkola	1.3	1	0.26	0	6%	0
UTA N. Bjugstad	1.2	0	0.22	0	11%	0
FLA J. Boqvist	1.2	1	0.38	0	17%	0
FLA E. Luostarinen	1.1	0	0.36	0	14%	0
UTA A. Kerfoot	1.0	1	0.28	0	11%	0
FLA U. Balinskis	1.0	2	0.20	0	5%	0
UTA J. McBain	1.0	0	0.28	0	12%	0
FLA N. Sturm	0.9	1	0.25	0	11%	0
FLA N. Schmidt	0.9	1	0.28	0	6%	0
UTA K. Stenlund	0.9	0	0.19	0	11%	0
UTA K. Yamamoto	0.9	0	0.24	0	11%	0
FLA A. Greer	0.9	1	0.23	0	9%	0
UTA O. Maatta	0.8	0	0.20	0	4%	0
UTA J. Marino	0.8	2	0.27	0	3%	0
UTA I. Cole	0.7	0	0.16	0	2%	0
FLA T. Bjornfot	0.7	0	0.09	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.