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Game Recap
UTA4
FLA3
UTA beat FLA 4-3, with the chances close: 2.65 expected goals to 2.73. FLA outshot UTA 30 to 20. S. Durzi led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). V. Vanecek stopped 27 of 30.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTA | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| FLA | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
- 1st 15:46UTAN. SchmaltzSH0.16 xG
- 2nd 2:52FLAS. Vilmanis0.07 xG
- 2nd 3:46UTAS. Durzi0.19 xG
- 2nd 9:55FLAC. Schwindt0.09 xG
- 3rd 11:05UTAM. Sergachev0.04 xG
- 3rd 19:04UTAB. HaytonEN0.77 xG
- 3rd 19:44FLAC. Verhaeghe0.07 xG
Team Stats
UTAFLA
20Shots on goal30
2.65Expected goals2.73
36Shot attempts62
155v5 shots on goal17
0/3Power play0/4
16Hits31
13Blocked shots7
12Penalty minutes10
24Giveaways15
4Takeaways4
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
UTA 2.65 xGFLA 2.73 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
UTA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Schmaltz | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 2 | 20:40 | 4:53 |
| K. Stenlund | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:37 | 0:00 |
| J. McBain | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:15 | 2:21 |
| B. Hayton | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 15:23 | 3:17 |
| M. Carcone | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 12:13 | 0:44 |
| L. Crouse | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20:26 | 0:49 |
| C. Keller | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 18:33 | 5:12 |
| J. Peterka | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 16:50 | 5:23 |
| D. But | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:42 | 0:45 |
| K. Yamamoto | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 10:45 | 0:00 |
| L. O'Brien | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 7:58 | 0:00 |
| B. Tanev | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7:43 | 0:00 |
| S. Durzi | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 19:56 | 0:55 |
| M. Sergachev | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | +1 | 0 | 25:37 | 5:16 |
| J. Marino | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 20:32 | 0:00 |
| N. Schmidt | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 18:30 | 0:00 |
| I. Cole | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 18:06 | 0:00 |
| N. DeSimone | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:16 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| V. Vanecek | 30 | 27 | 3 | .900 | 59:58 | Win |
| K. Vejmelka | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
FLA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Bennett | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 21:10 | 5:08 |
| C. Verhaeghe | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:53 | 2:45 |
| B. Marchand | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 18:49 | 5:04 |
| C. Schwindt | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 8:09 | 0:00 |
| S. Vilmanis | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 8:03 | 0:00 |
| S. Reinhart | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 22:05 | 5:24 |
| E. Rodrigues | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 18:04 | 2:51 |
| M. Tkachuk | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | -2 | 4 | 17:43 | 5:23 |
| E. Luostarinen | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:16 | 0:00 |
| A. Lundell | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12:19 | 2:16 |
| M. Samoskevich | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 11:03 | 1:51 |
| A. Greer | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | +2 | 2 | 10:42 | 0:04 |
| G. Forsling | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 23:19 | 3:34 |
| U. Balinskis | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 20:55 | 4:21 |
| A. Ekblad | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 19:48 | 0:54 |
| N. Mikkola | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:50 | 0:00 |
| J. Petry | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 14:33 | 0:00 |
| T. Bjornfot | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 13:06 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Bobrovsky | 19 | 16 | 3 | .842 | 58:13 | Loss |
| D. Tarasov | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
UTA
Line 1N. Schmaltz12:20C. Keller12:57L. Crouse13:07
Line 2B. Hayton11:12D. But10:57J. Peterka11:27
Line 3M. Carcone11:28J. McBain11:02K. Yamamoto10:40
Line 4L. O'Brien7:53K. Stenlund9:13B. Tanev7:34
Pair 1J. Marino16:39N. Schmidt15:26
Pair 2S. Durzi17:39M. Sergachev13:53
Pair 3I. Cole11:22N. DeSimone12:16
FLA
Line 1C. Verhaeghe14:53E. Rodrigues12:45S. Reinhart11:31
Line 2S. Bennett11:06M. Tkachuk11:37M. Samoskevich9:09
Line 3B. Marchand10:43E. Luostarinen13:13A. Lundell9:10
Line 4A. Greer10:14C. Schwindt8:00S. Vilmanis8:01
Pair 1A. Ekblad15:00G. Forsling15:44
Pair 2N. Mikkola16:24U. Balinskis13:58
Pair 3J. Petry12:33T. Bjornfot13:04
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | UTA 2.8, FLA 3.3 | UTA 4, FLA 3 |
| Total goals | 6.1 | 7 |
| Shots on goal | UTA 25.0, FLA 28.3 | UTA 20, FLA 30 |
| Win chance | FLA 58% | UTA won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA S. Bennett | 3.1 | 3 | 0.91 | 1 | 35% | 0 |
| FLA S. Reinhart | 2.6 | 2 | 1.03 | 0 | 40% | 0 |
| FLA M. Tkachuk | 2.6 | 2 | 1.04 | 0 | 32% | 0 |
| FLA B. Marchand | 2.4 | 3 | 0.88 | 1 | 31% | 0 |
| UTA C. Keller | 2.3 | 1 | 0.87 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| FLA A. Lundell | 2.2 | 3 | 0.69 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| FLA C. Verhaeghe | 2.2 | 4 | 0.79 | 1 | 29% | 1 |
| UTA N. Schmaltz | 2.1 | 1 | 0.77 | 1 | 24% | 1 |
| FLA E. Rodrigues | 2.0 | 3 | 0.48 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| UTA M. Sergachev | 1.8 | 2 | 0.63 | 1 | 10% | 1 |
| UTA L. Crouse | 1.7 | 0 | 0.47 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| UTA M. Carcone | 1.7 | 1 | 0.39 | 1 | 19% | 0 |
| FLA G. Forsling | 1.7 | 1 | 0.42 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| FLA M. Samoskevich | 1.7 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| UTA J. Peterka | 1.7 | 1 | 0.56 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| UTA B. Hayton | 1.6 | 2 | 0.39 | 1 | 15% | 1 |
| FLA A. Ekblad | 1.5 | 0 | 0.44 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| UTA S. Durzi | 1.5 | 2 | 0.42 | 2 | 8% | 1 |
| FLA U. Balinskis | 1.5 | 2 | 0.37 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| FLA E. Luostarinen | 1.4 | 2 | 0.47 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| FLA A. Greer | 1.2 | 1 | 0.31 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| UTA J. McBain | 1.2 | 0 | 0.31 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| UTA D. But | 1.2 | 3 | 0.26 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| FLA N. Mikkola | 1.2 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| UTA N. Schmidt | 1.1 | 2 | 0.31 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| UTA K. Stenlund | 0.9 | 3 | 0.25 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| UTA N. DeSimone | 0.9 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| FLA S. Vilmanis | 0.9 | 2 | 0.21 | 1 | 10% | 1 |
| UTA L. O'Brien | 0.8 | 0 | 0.12 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| FLA J. Petry | 0.8 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| UTA K. Yamamoto | 0.8 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| UTA J. Marino | 0.8 | 1 | 0.34 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| UTA I. Cole | 0.7 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| UTA B. Tanev | 0.7 | 0 | 0.13 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| FLA T. Bjornfot | 0.6 | 0 | 0.09 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| FLA C. Schwindt | 0.5 | 2 | 0.16 | 1 | 6% | 1 |
Shots on goal: 24 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.