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Game Recap
UTA6
LAK2
UTA beat LAK 6-2, and the chances backed it up: 4.00 expected goals to 2.36. M. Sergachev led the way with 4 points (0 G, 4 A). J. Armia had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.0. K. Vejmelka stopped 29 of 31.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTA | 3 | 2 | 1 | 6 |
| LAK | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
- 1st 2:31UTAA. Kerfoot0.09 xG
- 1st 16:33UTAL. Cooley0.20 xG
- 1st 17:51LAKA. Kopitar0.08 xG
- 1st 19:51UTAL. CooleyPP0.16 xG
- 2nd 12:37UTAA. Kerfoot0.16 xG
- 2nd 16:17UTAN. SchmaltzPP0.30 xG
- 3rd 4:34LAKA. Kempe0.04 xG
- 3rd 13:53UTAJ. McBainEN0.64 xG
Team Stats
UTALAK
28Shots on goal31
4.00Expected goals2.36
64Shot attempts60
225v5 shots on goal28
2/3Power play0/2
21Hits36
13Blocked shots24
4Penalty minutes6
12Giveaways17
6Takeaways2
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
UTA 4.00 xGLAK 2.36 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
UTA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Keller | RW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:52 | 2:44 |
| L. Cooley | C | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 16:38 | 2:44 |
| A. Kerfoot | C | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:55 | 0:00 |
| D. Guenther | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 2 | 18:03 | 2:44 |
| N. Schmaltz | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:45 | 2:44 |
| J. McBain | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 14:04 | 0:30 |
| J. Peterka | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:57 | 0:30 |
| L. Crouse | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:12 | 0:16 |
| K. Stenlund | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 14:47 | 0:00 |
| K. Yamamoto | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:29 | 0:00 |
| M. Carcone | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:01 | 0:30 |
| B. Tanev | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 10:55 | 0:00 |
| M. Sergachev | D | 0 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 25:13 | 2:44 |
| J. Marino | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 18:17 | 0:00 |
| I. Cole | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 17:51 | 0:00 |
| M. Weegar | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 21:08 | 0:30 |
| N. Schmidt | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 20:44 | 0:14 |
| S. Durzi | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:09 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Vejmelka | 31 | 29 | 2 | .935 | 60:00 | Win |
| V. Vanecek | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
LAK Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Kempe | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 20:02 | 2:21 |
| A. Kopitar | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | +1 | 2 | 18:25 | 2:04 |
| A. Panarin | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:59 | 3:52 |
| Q. Byfield | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 19:03 | 1:46 |
| S. Laughton | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 18:01 | 1:39 |
| A. Laferriere | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:36 | 2:23 |
| T. Moore | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:00 | 1:31 |
| J. Armia | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:05 | 0:00 |
| J. Wright | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 9:52 | 0:00 |
| M. Joseph | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 9:34 | 0:06 |
| J. Malott | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 8:20 | 0:00 |
| S. Helenius | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 8:02 | 0:08 |
| J. Edmundson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 2 | 18:54 | 0:00 |
| D. Doughty | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 22:19 | 1:46 |
| B. Clarke | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | +1 | 0 | 22:14 | 2:14 |
| M. Anderson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 20:17 | 0:00 |
| C. Ceci | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | -1 | 0 | 16:28 | 0:00 |
| B. Dumoulin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 16:03 | 0:10 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Kuemper | 16 | 11 | 5 | .688 | 39:58 | Loss |
| A. Forsberg | 11 | 11 | 0 | 1.000 | 19:34 |
Lines at 5-on-5
UTA
Line 1D. Guenther15:19L. Cooley13:54K. Yamamoto13:29
Line 2N. Schmaltz13:20L. Crouse13:35C. Keller14:06
Line 3M. Carcone12:15J. McBain12:51J. Peterka12:13
Line 4A. Kerfoot12:05B. Tanev10:43K. Stenlund12:44
Pair 1M. Sergachev19:41M. Weegar18:46
Pair 2N. Schmidt18:41J. Marino18:07
LAK
Line 1A. Kempe17:01A. Panarin17:41A. Kopitar15:41
Line 2Q. Byfield14:39T. Moore13:38A. Laferriere14:08
Line 3J. Armia14:05S. Laughton14:22M. Joseph9:28
Line 4J. Malott8:20S. Helenius7:54J. Wright9:52
Pair 1J. Edmundson18:54B. Clarke19:58
Pair 2D. Doughty18:21M. Anderson18:22
Pair 3B. Dumoulin14:08C. Ceci14:58
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | UTA 2.8, LAK 2.9 | UTA 6, LAK 2 |
| Total goals | 5.7 | 8 |
| Shots on goal | UTA 25.7, LAK 27.1 | UTA 28, LAK 31 |
| Win chance | LAK 52% | UTA won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTA D. Guenther | 3.0 | 2 | 0.82 | 1 | 32% | 0 |
| LAK A. Panarin | 2.9 | 3 | 1.22 | 0 | 36% | 0 |
| UTA C. Keller | 2.8 | 2 | 0.98 | 2 | 29% | 0 |
| LAK A. Laferriere | 2.6 | 2 | 0.62 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| LAK A. Kempe | 2.6 | 1 | 0.91 | 2 | 34% | 1 |
| LAK T. Moore | 2.4 | 1 | 0.57 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| UTA N. Schmaltz | 2.3 | 1 | 0.81 | 1 | 25% | 1 |
| LAK B. Clarke | 2.1 | 2 | 0.52 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| LAK Q. Byfield | 2.0 | 3 | 0.63 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| UTA L. Cooley | 1.9 | 3 | 0.67 | 2 | 25% | 2 |
| UTA M. Carcone | 1.8 | 2 | 0.40 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| UTA M. Sergachev | 1.7 | 1 | 0.60 | 4 | 11% | 0 |
| UTA L. Crouse | 1.7 | 3 | 0.45 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| UTA M. Weegar | 1.6 | 3 | 0.34 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| UTA J. Peterka | 1.6 | 1 | 0.49 | 1 | 20% | 0 |
| LAK D. Doughty | 1.5 | 3 | 0.48 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| LAK S. Laughton | 1.5 | 4 | 0.40 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| LAK A. Kopitar | 1.5 | 1 | 0.75 | 1 | 24% | 1 |
| LAK J. Wright | 1.2 | 1 | 0.17 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| UTA J. McBain | 1.2 | 2 | 0.30 | 1 | 11% | 1 |
| LAK J. Edmundson | 1.1 | 3 | 0.21 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| UTA S. Durzi | 1.0 | 2 | 0.32 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| LAK J. Armia | 1.0 | 4 | 0.30 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| LAK M. Anderson | 1.0 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| UTA A. Kerfoot | 0.9 | 2 | 0.31 | 2 | 10% | 2 |
| UTA N. Schmidt | 0.9 | 2 | 0.24 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| UTA K. Stenlund | 0.9 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| UTA K. Yamamoto | 0.9 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| LAK M. Joseph | 0.9 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| LAK J. Malott | 0.8 | 2 | 0.15 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| LAK C. Ceci | 0.8 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| LAK S. Helenius | 0.7 | 1 | 0.18 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| UTA I. Cole | 0.7 | 2 | 0.19 | 1 | 3% | 0 |
| LAK B. Dumoulin | 0.7 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| UTA J. Marino | 0.6 | 0 | 0.32 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| UTA B. Tanev | 0.6 | 0 | 0.12 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.