UTA beat MIN 2-1 despite fewer good chances: 1.38 expected goals to 2.70. MIN outshot UTA 29 to 18. D. Guenther led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). N. Bjugstad had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.4. K. Vejmelka stopped 28 of 29.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTA | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| MIN | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
- 1st 10:20MINM. Zuccarello0.14 xG
- 1st 11:20UTAD. Guenther0.17 xG
- 3rd 10:01UTAD. GuentherPP0.05 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
UTA 1.38 xGMIN 2.70 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
UTA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Guenther | RW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:41 | 2:23 |
| C. Keller | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:54 | 2:25 |
| L. Cooley | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 17:10 | 2:25 |
| J. McBain | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:23 | 0:00 |
| N. Schmaltz | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:17 | 2:28 |
| L. Crouse | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:30 | 1:39 |
| B. Hayton | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:35 | 0:00 |
| K. Stenlund | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 13:29 | 0:00 |
| N. Bjugstad | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:27 | 1:37 |
| M. Maccelli | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 13:27 | 1:40 |
| A. Kerfoot | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:19 | 0:00 |
| M. Carcone | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 9:08 | 1:40 |
| M. Sergachev | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 29:15 | 2:26 |
| O. Maatta | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 24:06 | 0:00 |
| I. Cole | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 21:32 | 0:00 |
| M. Kesselring | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:52 | 1:42 |
| J. Välimäki | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 13:46 | 0:00 |
| V. Kolyachonok | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 9:09 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Vejmelka | 29 | 28 | 1 | .966 | 60:00 | Win |
| J. Stauber | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
MIN Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Kaprizov | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 26:37 | 7:49 |
| M. Rossi | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 24:15 | 7:47 |
| M. Zuccarello | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 24:13 | 7:55 |
| M. Boldy | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22:06 | 7:51 |
| M. Foligno | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:14 | 2:05 |
| F. Gaudreau | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:26 | 2:09 |
| M. Johansson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:58 | 2:13 |
| R. Hartman | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:03 | 2:11 |
| M. Khusnutdinov | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:34 | 0:00 |
| B. Gaunce | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8:50 | 0:00 |
| D. Shore | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7:54 | 0:00 |
| B. Jones | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6:57 | 0:00 |
| B. Faber | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 25:04 | 3:17 |
| J. Spurgeon | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 24:56 | 6:43 |
| J. Brodin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 18:29 | 0:00 |
| D. Chisholm | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:06 | 0:00 |
| Z. Bogosian | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 13:40 | 0:00 |
| T. Dermott | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 9:54 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Fleury | 18 | 16 | 2 | .889 | 57:39 | Loss |
| J. Wallstedt | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | UTA 3.0, MIN 3.3 | UTA 2, MIN 1 |
| Total goals | 6.3 | 3 |
| Shots on goal | UTA 27.7, MIN 30.2 | UTA 18, MIN 29 |
| Win chance | MIN 54% | UTA won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN K. Kaprizov | 3.4 | 5 | 1.30 | 1 | 46% | 0 |
| MIN M. Boldy | 2.8 | 2 | 0.82 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| UTA C. Keller | 2.4 | 2 | 0.87 | 1 | 30% | 0 |
| UTA D. Guenther | 2.3 | 3 | 0.74 | 2 | 27% | 2 |
| MIN R. Hartman | 2.1 | 2 | 0.51 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| UTA L. Cooley | 2.0 | 0 | 0.68 | 1 | 22% | 0 |
| MIN M. Rossi | 1.9 | 2 | 0.63 | 1 | 26% | 0 |
| UTA N. Schmaltz | 1.9 | 0 | 0.78 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| MIN M. Zuccarello | 1.8 | 6 | 0.76 | 1 | 20% | 1 |
| UTA M. Sergachev | 1.8 | 1 | 0.68 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| MIN J. Brodin | 1.7 | 0 | 0.35 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| MIN J. Spurgeon | 1.7 | 3 | 0.41 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| MIN M. Johansson | 1.6 | 1 | 0.45 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| UTA M. Carcone | 1.5 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| MIN B. Faber | 1.5 | 0 | 0.53 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| UTA B. Hayton | 1.5 | 1 | 0.37 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| UTA M. Kesselring | 1.4 | 0 | 0.37 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| UTA N. Bjugstad | 1.4 | 6 | 0.34 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| UTA L. Crouse | 1.3 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| MIN F. Gaudreau | 1.3 | 3 | 0.35 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| UTA M. Maccelli | 1.2 | 0 | 0.47 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| MIN D. Chisholm | 1.2 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| UTA K. Stenlund | 1.2 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| MIN B. Gaunce | 1.1 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| UTA A. Kerfoot | 1.1 | 0 | 0.39 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| MIN M. Foligno | 1.1 | 1 | 0.38 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| MIN Z. Bogosian | 1.0 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| UTA J. Välimäki | 1.0 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| UTA I. Cole | 1.0 | 2 | 0.22 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| UTA O. Maatta | 0.9 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| UTA J. McBain | 0.9 | 1 | 0.38 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| MIN B. Jones | 0.9 | 1 | 0.11 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| MIN D. Shore | 0.6 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| UTA V. Kolyachonok | 0.6 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| MIN T. Dermott | 0.5 | 1 | 0.09 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| MIN M. Khusnutdinov | 0.4 | 1 | 0.15 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.