Game Recap: UTA 6, MIN 2, October 25, 2025

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Game Recap

UTA6

FinalSat, Oct 25, 2025Every game that night

MIN2

UTA beat MIN 6-2, with the chances close: 4.13 expected goals to 3.84. L. Cooley led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). N. Schmaltz had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.3. K. Vejmelka stopped 33 of 35.

Team Stats

UTAMIN

41Shots on goal35

4.13Expected goals3.84

61Shot attempts75

375v5 shots on goal22

1/1Power play1/4

12Hits32

21Blocked shots9

10Penalty minutes4

25Giveaways20

5Takeaways2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

UTA 4.13 xGMIN 3.84 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

UTA40 on goal, 5 scored

MIN35 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

UTA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
L. Cooley	C	2	1	3	5	0	2	+2	0	13:58	0:43
N. Schmaltz	C	2	0	2	6	0	1	+3	0	16:24	0:43
D. Guenther	RW	0	1	1	5	1	0	+1	0	14:07	0:43
J. Peterka	RW	1	0	1	2	0	0	+2	0	13:31	0:00
K. Stenlund	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	16:21	0:00
B. Hayton	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	+3	2	16:17	0:00
C. Keller	RW	0	0	0	3	0	0	+2	0	16:16	0:43
L. Crouse	LW	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	16:10	0:00
J. McBain	C	0	0	0	4	3	0	0	2	15:16	0:00
B. Tanev	LW	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	12:18	0:00
M. Carcone	LW	0	0	0	3	0	1	-1	0	11:00	0:00
L. O'Brien	C	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	0	9:02	0:00
J. Marino	D	1	2	3	1	0	2	+2	0	23:27	0:00
M. Sergachev	D	0	2	2	0	0	3	+1	2	22:20	0:43
I. Cole	D	0	1	1	1	2	8	0	4	22:03	0:00
N. Schmidt	D	0	1	1	1	3	0	+4	0	21:16	0:00
D. Simashev	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	15:35	0:00
O. Maatta	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	+2	0	14:47	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
K. Vejmelka	35	33	2	.943	60:00	Win
V. Vanecek	0	0	0	–	0:00

MIN Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Johansson	LW	2	0	2	3	0	1	-1	0	14:31	0:49
K. Kaprizov	LW	0	1	1	3	0	0	-1	0	23:58	7:03
M. Rossi	C	0	1	1	3	0	0	-2	0	19:03	2:49
V. Hinostroza	C	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	0	11:25	0:49
M. Boldy	LW	0	0	0	3	0	0	-2	0	22:28	7:03
J. Eriksson Ek	C	0	0	0	5	1	0	-2	2	21:05	7:03
V. Tarasenko	RW	0	0	0	4	2	1	-2	0	16:42	6:29
M. Foligno	LW	0	0	0	2	9	2	-1	0	14:03	0:00
R. Hartman	RW	0	0	0	3	4	0	-1	0	13:59	1:20
D. Yurov	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-2	0	11:45	0:00
Y. Trenin	C	0	0	0	2	6	0	0	2	10:13	0:00
B. Jones	C	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	0	8:01	0:00
Z. Buium	D	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	19:06	2:02
B. Faber	D	0	0	0	3	0	1	-2	0	21:49	0:06
J. Brodin	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	-2	0	21:37	0:03
J. Spurgeon	D	0	0	0	1	3	1	-1	0	21:14	5:44
D.Jiricek	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	14:13	0:00
J. Middleton	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	-1	0	14:11	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
F. Gustavsson	40	35	5	.875	57:54	Loss
J. Wallstedt	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

UTA

Line 1C. Keller14:17B. Hayton14:58N. Schmaltz12:52

Line 2L. Crouse12:01J. McBain13:09M. Carcone11:00

Line 3D. Guenther12:22L. Cooley11:35J. Peterka13:31

Line 4K. Stenlund11:16B. Tanev11:48L. O'Brien9:02

Pair 1N. Schmidt18:03J. Marino19:04

Pair 2I. Cole17:31O. Maatta13:31

Pair 3M. Sergachev16:54D. Simashev13:41

MIN

Line 1M. Johansson13:37M. Rossi15:23K. Kaprizov14:54

Line 2J. Ek13:13M. Boldy14:04D. Yurov11:45

Line 3M. Foligno13:20R. Hartman12:39V. Tarasenko10:07

Line 4V. Hinostroza10:36Y. Trenin10:13B. Jones8:01

Pair 1J. Brodin19:40B. Faber19:48

Pair 2J. Spurgeon14:35Z. Buium16:16

Pair 3J. Middleton14:11D.Jiricek14:13

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	UTA 3.2, MIN 2.9	UTA 6, MIN 2
Total goals	6.1	8
Shots on goal	UTA 29.4, MIN 26.6	UTA 41, MIN 35
Win chance	UTA 54%	UTA won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
MIN K. Kaprizov	3.3	3	1.21	1	44%	0
MIN M. Boldy	3.3	3	0.99	0	33%	0
UTA D. Guenther	2.9	5	0.81	1	29%	0
MIN J. Ek	2.8	5	0.71	0	26%	0
UTA C. Keller	2.5	3	0.94	0	29%	0
MIN R. Hartman	2.4	3	0.53	0	22%	0
UTA N. Schmaltz	2.3	6	0.79	2	24%	2
UTA L. Cooley	2.1	5	0.77	3	27%	2
UTA J. Peterka	2.0	2	0.63	1	22%	1
UTA M. Sergachev	1.9	0	0.65	2	11%	0
UTA B. Hayton	1.7	1	0.43	0	16%	0
MIN V. Tarasenko	1.7	4	0.60	0	23%	0
UTA L. Crouse	1.6	1	0.32	0	18%	0
MIN J. Spurgeon	1.4	1	0.35	0	9%	0
MIN B. Faber	1.4	3	0.27	0	7%	0
MIN M. Rossi	1.4	3	0.50	1	19%	0
UTA D. Simashev	1.4	0	0.11	0	3%	0
UTA N. Schmidt	1.4	1	0.33	1	7%	0
MIN M. Johansson	1.4	3	0.42	2	14%	2
UTA M. Carcone	1.3	3	0.31	0	15%	0
MIN Z. Buium	1.3	0	0.39	1	6%	0
UTA K. Stenlund	1.3	1	0.31	0	15%	0
MIN J. Brodin	1.2	0	0.31	0	7%	0
MIN V. Hinostroza	1.2	0	0.28	1	12%	0
MIN Y. Trenin	1.2	2	0.22	0	12%	0
UTA J. McBain	1.1	4	0.32	0	13%	0
MIN M. Foligno	1.1	2	0.34	0	16%	0
UTA L. O'Brien	1.1	4	0.15	0	6%	0
MIN J. Middleton	1.0	2	0.21	0	6%	0
MIN D. Yurov	0.9	0	0.24	0	12%	0
UTA J. Marino	0.9	1	0.31	3	4%	1
UTA B. Tanev	0.9	2	0.20	0	10%	0
MIN B. Jones	0.8	1	0.06	0	5%	0
MIN D.Jiricek	0.8	0	0.18	0	4%	0
UTA I. Cole	0.8	1	0.21	1	3%	0
UTA O. Maatta	0.6	1	0.16	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 18 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.5 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.