Game Recap: UTA 0, MIN 5, March 10, 2026

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Game Recap

UTA0

FinalTue, Mar 10, 2026Every game that night

MIN5

MIN beat UTA 5-0, and the chances backed it up: 3.76 expected goals to 2.35. K. Kaprizov led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). J. Brodin had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.0. F. Gustavsson stopped 25 of 25.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
UTA	0	0	0	0
MIN	1	1	3	5

1st 14:10MINK. Kaprizov0.42 xG
2nd 8:43MINM. Boldy0.14 xG
3rd 2:09MINB. Brink0.12 xG
3rd 6:09MIND. Yurov0.12 xG
3rd 18:39MINR. Hartman0.23 xG

Team Stats

UTAMIN

25Shots on goal30

2.35Expected goals3.76

57Shot attempts67

195v5 shots on goal24

0/3Power play0/4

14Hits22

16Blocked shots12

13Penalty minutes11

19Giveaways16

3Takeaways8

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

UTA 2.35 xGMIN 3.76 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

UTA25 on goal, 0 scored

MIN30 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

UTA Skaters

Player	Pos	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. Keller	RW	3	0	0	-1	2	19:49	4:21
N. Schmaltz	C	1	0	1	0	0	19:03	4:26
D. Guenther	RW	2	0	1	-2	0	17:33	4:21
L. Cooley	C	4	0	0	-3	0	15:49	1:41
L. Crouse	LW	2	1	1	0	2	15:21	1:28
K. Stenlund	C	1	0	0	0	0	15:00	0:00
B. Hayton	C	1	0	0	-2	0	14:57	4:22
A. Kerfoot	C	0	2	0	0	2	13:16	0:00
J. Peterka	RW	2	0	0	-3	0	12:33	1:38
J. McBain	C	3	4	1	-1	0	12:03	0:00
M. Carcone	LW	2	1	0	-1	0	11:44	1:36
K. Yamamoto	RW	3	0	1	-2	0	10:47	0:00
N. Schmidt	D	0	1	4	0	0	20:25	1:25
S. Durzi	D	0	2	0	-4	0	20:13	4:28
I. Cole	D	1	1	3	-2	0	19:51	0:00
J. Marino	D	0	0	2	0	0	19:01	0:00
N. DeSimone	D	0	0	0	-2	0	17:58	0:07
M. Weegar	D	0	2	2	-2	7	16:43	0:07

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
K. Vejmelka	30	25	5	.833	59:54	Loss
V. Vanecek	0	0	0	–	0:00

MIN Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
K. Kaprizov	LW	1	1	2	3	3	0	+2	2	20:45	5:28
V. Tarasenko	RW	0	2	2	2	0	0	+3	0	14:02	1:41
M. Boldy	LW	1	0	1	2	0	1	+1	0	18:36	5:30
J. Eriksson Ek	C	0	1	1	1	3	1	+1	0	18:18	5:18
R. Hartman	RW	1	0	1	3	0	0	+1	5	13:27	0:51
M. Johansson	LW	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	0	13:21	1:33
B. Brink	RW	1	0	1	1	0	1	+2	0	12:37	0:53
D. Yurov	RW	1	0	1	1	0	0	+3	2	12:05	0:38
N. Foligno	LW	0	1	1	2	3	0	+1	0	11:41	0:00
M. Zuccarello	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	19:22	5:25
M. McCarron	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	13:27	0:00
Y. Trenin	C	0	0	0	0	9	0	0	0	12:17	0:00
Q. Hughes	D	0	1	1	1	0	0	+3	0	23:43	5:28
B. Faber	D	0	0	0	5	1	2	+2	2	21:47	1:35
J. Brodin	D	0	0	0	5	0	3	+1	0	18:45	0:00
J. Spurgeon	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	17:34	0:36
J. Middleton	D	0	0	0	1	2	0	+2	0	16:53	0:04
Z. Bogosian	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	+2	0	15:28	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
F. Gustavsson	25	25	0	1.000	59:52	Win
J. Wallstedt	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

UTA

Line 1N. Schmaltz12:01C. Keller15:14D. Guenther13:12

Line 2K. Yamamoto10:41B. Hayton10:29J. Peterka10:55

Line 3A. Kerfoot11:14K. Stenlund10:01M. Carcone10:08

Line 4J. McBain11:19L. Cooley14:01L. Crouse10:59

Pair 1N. Schmidt14:07J. Marino17:07

Pair 2N. DeSimone17:27M. Weegar15:35

Pair 3I. Cole14:38S. Durzi14:42

MIN

Line 1M. Zuccarello13:57R. Hartman12:29K. Kaprizov15:03

Line 2J. Ek12:00M. Boldy11:31M. Johansson11:02

Line 3D. Yurov11:13V. Tarasenko12:07B. Brink11:36

Line 4N. Foligno9:19Y. Trenin9:36M. McCarron10:03

Pair 1Q. Hughes18:07B. Faber18:11

Pair 2J. Spurgeon14:34J. Brodin15:56

Pair 3Z. Bogosian13:38J. Middleton13:28

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	UTA 2.9, MIN 3.3	UTA 0, MIN 5
Total goals	6.2	5
Shots on goal	UTA 27.7, MIN 28.0	UTA 25, MIN 30
Win chance	MIN 57%	MIN won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
MIN K. Kaprizov	3.4	3	1.21	2	45%	1
MIN M. Boldy	3.1	2	1.02	1	35%	1
UTA D. Guenther	3.0	2	0.73	0	29%	0
MIN J. Ek	2.6	1	0.71	1	27%	0
MIN Q. Hughes	2.6	1	0.99	1	13%	0
UTA C. Keller	2.5	3	0.85	0	26%	0
UTA N. Schmaltz	2.3	1	0.76	0	25%	0
MIN R. Hartman	2.1	3	0.51	1	23%	1
UTA M. Weegar	2.1	0	0.39	0	8%	0
MIN M. Zuccarello	2.0	1	0.82	0	23%	0
UTA B. Hayton	1.9	1	0.43	0	16%	0
MIN B. Faber	1.8	5	0.44	0	11%	0
UTA J. Peterka	1.8	2	0.50	0	21%	0
UTA L. Cooley	1.8	4	0.56	0	22%	0
UTA L. Crouse	1.8	2	0.42	0	20%	0
MIN V. Tarasenko	1.7	2	0.50	2	21%	0
UTA S. Durzi	1.7	0	0.40	0	9%	0
UTA M. Carcone	1.6	2	0.34	0	16%	0
MIN B. Brink	1.5	1	0.52	1	19%	1
UTA J. McBain	1.3	3	0.32	0	12%	0
MIN M. McCarron	1.3	0	0.23	0	11%	0
MIN Y. Trenin	1.2	0	0.29	0	14%	0
MIN M. Johansson	1.2	1	0.45	1	15%	0
UTA N. Schmidt	1.2	0	0.27	0	6%	0
MIN J. Spurgeon	1.2	0	0.30	0	8%	0
MIN D. Yurov	1.1	1	0.38	1	14%	1
MIN J. Brodin	1.0	5	0.26	0	5%	0
UTA K. Yamamoto	1.0	3	0.29	0	13%	0
UTA N. DeSimone	1.0	0	0.18	0	4%	0
MIN J. Middleton	1.0	1	0.24	0	5%	0
UTA K. Stenlund	0.9	1	0.23	0	10%	0
UTA A. Kerfoot	0.9	0	0.26	0	9%	0
MIN Z. Bogosian	0.9	1	0.18	0	4%	0
MIN N. Foligno	0.9	2	0.31	1	12%	0
UTA J. Marino	0.9	0	0.34	0	4%	0
UTA I. Cole	0.8	1	0.20	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.