UTA beat MTL 3-2 in overtime, with the chances close: 3.74 expected goals to 3.05. UTA outshot MTL 29 to 13. D. Guenther led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). D. Guenther had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.5. K. Vejmelka stopped 11 of 13.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTA | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| MTL | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
- 2nd 6:23UTAD. Guenther0.09 xG
- 2nd 8:05MTLJ. Struble0.08 xG
- 3rd 0:46MTLA. Newhook0.38 xG
- 3rd 4:17UTAJ. McBain0.24 xG
- OT 4:33UTAM. Sergachev0.47 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
UTA 3.74 xGMTL 3.05 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
UTA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Schmaltz | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 21:25 | 5:57 |
| D. Guenther | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 19:04 | 6:07 |
| L. Cooley | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 23:13 | 6:13 |
| C. Keller | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 22:16 | 6:06 |
| J. McBain | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:09 | 0:00 |
| B. Hayton | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:01 | 0:00 |
| A. Kerfoot | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:09 | 0:00 |
| K. Stenlund | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 16:20 | 0:00 |
| M. Carcone | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:31 | 1:51 |
| L. Crouse | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 10:04 | 1:47 |
| M. Maccelli | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 9:45 | 1:59 |
| N. Bjugstad | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 7:49 | 1:51 |
| M. Sergachev | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | +3 | 2 | 30:43 | 5:55 |
| O. Maatta | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 24:45 | 0:00 |
| I. Cole | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 23:25 | 0:00 |
| M. Kesselring | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:39 | 2:14 |
| M. Lamoureux | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 14:57 | 0:00 |
| R. Bortuzzo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 4:51 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Vejmelka | 13 | 11 | 2 | .846 | 64:06 | Win |
| J. Stauber | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
MTL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Newhook | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 19:15 | 2:39 |
| C. Caufield | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:38 | 3:10 |
| C. Dvorak | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 14:29 | 0:00 |
| N. Suzuki | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 21:21 | 3:06 |
| J. Evans | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 2 | 16:33 | 0:17 |
| J. Armia | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 14:39 | 2:36 |
| K. Dach | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 14:30 | 3:16 |
| E. Heineman | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 14:24 | 2:21 |
| B. Gallagher | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:56 | 2:26 |
| J. Anderson | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:39 | 0:10 |
| J. Roy | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11:30 | 0:16 |
| J. Slafkovský | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:29 | 3:13 |
| D. Savard | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 12 | 17:53 | 0:00 |
| J. Struble | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 17:11 | 0:00 |
| A. Xhekaj | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 16:07 | 0:00 |
| L. Hutson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 26:28 | 5:45 |
| K. Guhle | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 26:25 | 0:28 |
| J. Barron | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 15:12 | 0:17 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Montembeault | 29 | 26 | 3 | .897 | 64:33 | OT loss |
| C. Primeau | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | UTA 3.3, MTL 3.1 | UTA 3, MTL 2 |
| Total goals | 6.3 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | UTA 28.4, MTL 27.5 | UTA 29, MTL 13 |
| Win chance | UTA 53% | UTA won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL C. Caufield | 2.7 | 3 | 0.70 | 1 | 30% | 0 |
| UTA C. Keller | 2.5 | 1 | 0.95 | 1 | 32% | 0 |
| UTA D. Guenther | 2.5 | 5 | 0.79 | 2 | 30% | 1 |
| UTA L. Cooley | 2.1 | 1 | 0.68 | 1 | 24% | 0 |
| MTL N. Suzuki | 2.0 | 0 | 0.85 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| MTL B. Gallagher | 1.9 | 0 | 0.48 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| UTA N. Schmaltz | 1.9 | 3 | 0.83 | 2 | 25% | 0 |
| UTA M. Sergachev | 1.8 | 1 | 0.76 | 1 | 11% | 1 |
| UTA L. Crouse | 1.8 | 1 | 0.44 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| UTA N. Bjugstad | 1.6 | 2 | 0.43 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| MTL K. Dach | 1.6 | 1 | 0.51 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| MTL J. Armia | 1.6 | 0 | 0.38 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| UTA B. Hayton | 1.6 | 3 | 0.39 | 1 | 16% | 0 |
| MTL J. Slafkovský | 1.6 | 0 | 0.59 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| UTA M. Maccelli | 1.5 | 0 | 0.64 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| UTA M. Kesselring | 1.5 | 2 | 0.46 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| MTL J. Anderson | 1.4 | 0 | 0.35 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| UTA M. Carcone | 1.4 | 1 | 0.31 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| MTL J. Roy | 1.4 | 1 | 0.39 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| UTA A. Kerfoot | 1.4 | 1 | 0.49 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| MTL A. Newhook | 1.3 | 2 | 0.44 | 1 | 18% | 1 |
| MTL K. Guhle | 1.3 | 0 | 0.35 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| MTL C. Dvorak | 1.2 | 2 | 0.42 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| MTL A. Xhekaj | 1.2 | 0 | 0.19 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| UTA K. Stenlund | 1.2 | 2 | 0.19 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| UTA M. Lamoureux | 1.1 | 2 | 0.26 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| MTL L. Hutson | 1.1 | 0 | 0.50 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| MTL J. Barron | 1.0 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| MTL J. Evans | 1.0 | 1 | 0.43 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| MTL E. Heineman | 1.0 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| UTA I. Cole | 0.9 | 2 | 0.27 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| MTL J. Struble | 0.9 | 1 | 0.19 | 1 | 5% | 1 |
| UTA J. McBain | 0.9 | 2 | 0.41 | 1 | 16% | 1 |
| MTL D. Savard | 0.8 | 0 | 0.31 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| UTA O. Maatta | 0.8 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| UTA R. Bortuzzo | 0.5 | 0 | 0.08 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.