Game Recap: UTA 2, MTL 6, November 8, 2025

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Game Recap

UTA2

FinalSat, Nov 8, 2025Every game that night

MTL6

MTL beat UTA 6-2, with the chances close: 2.82 expected goals to 3.28. C. Caufield led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). A. Newhook had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.4. S. Montembeault stopped 25 of 27.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
UTA	1	1	0	2
MTL	1	2	3	6

1st 3:03UTAK. Yamamoto0.22 xG
1st 14:45MTLO. Kapanen0.17 xG
2nd 6:02UTAL. Crouse0.16 xG
2nd 6:44MTLC. Caufield0.04 xG
2nd 13:13MTLA. Newhook0.23 xG
3rd 13:29MTLC. Caufield0.04 xG
3rd 18:00MTLN. Suzuki0.18 xG
3rd 19:23MTLK. Dach0.13 xG

Team Stats

UTAMTL

27Shots on goal23

3.28Expected goals2.82

56Shot attempts48

215v5 shots on goal19

0/2Power play0/2

22Hits25

11Blocked shots13

4Penalty minutes4

16Giveaways12

4Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

UTA 3.28 xGMTL 2.82 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

UTA27 on goal, 2 scored

MTL23 on goal, 6 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

UTA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
L. Crouse	LW	1	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	16:14	0:07
K. Stenlund	C	0	1	1	0	0	2	-1	0	14:10	2:21
J. McBain	C	0	1	1	1	3	1	0	2	14:08	0:07
M. Carcone	LW	0	1	1	1	3	0	+1	0	12:20	0:00
K. Yamamoto	RW	1	0	1	2	1	1	-1	0	11:44	1:32
L. Cooley	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-2	0	18:58	2:21
J. Peterka	RW	0	0	0	2	1	0	-1	0	18:56	1:32
N. Schmaltz	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	-2	0	17:17	2:21
C. Keller	RW	0	0	0	4	0	0	-2	0	16:24	2:21
B. Hayton	C	0	0	0	3	0	2	-1	0	15:52	1:32
D. Guenther	RW	0	0	0	2	1	0	-1	0	15:14	1:32
B. Tanev	LW	0	0	0	0	3	0	-2	0	8:09	0:07
I. Cole	D	0	1	1	3	3	2	0	2	16:40	0:00
M. Sergachev	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	-3	0	23:46	2:28
N. Schmidt	D	0	0	0	1	4	1	-1	0	23:28	1:28
J. Marino	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	22:04	0:00
D. Simashev	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-2	0	18:37	0:11
O. Määttä	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	-2	0	11:59	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
K. Vejmelka	23	17	6	.739	60:00	Loss
V. Vanecek	0	0	0	–	0:00

MTL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. Caufield	RW	2	0	2	2	3	0	+2	0	16:55	2:06
A. Newhook	C	1	1	2	5	2	0	+3	2	14:53	1:46
O. Kapanen	C	1	1	2	2	0	0	+2	0	13:55	0:00
N. Suzuki	C	1	0	1	3	1	1	+3	0	17:18	2:11
K. Dach	C	1	0	1	2	1	1	+1	0	15:56	1:44
J. Slafkovský	LW	0	1	1	2	2	0	+2	0	15:55	2:08
I. Demidov	RW	0	1	1	1	0	0	+2	0	13:18	2:06
J. Anderson	RW	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	0	15:59	0:03
Z. Bolduc	RW	0	0	0	0	3	0	+1	2	15:08	1:47
J. Evans	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	-2	0	14:44	0:06
B. Gallagher	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	+1	0	14:34	1:51
J. Veleno	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	-2	0	11:08	0:05
M. Matheson	D	0	1	1	0	0	2	+2	0	22:03	0:07
N. Dobson	D	0	1	1	1	0	1	+2	0	20:56	1:44
A. Carrier	D	0	1	1	0	2	2	+2	0	18:30	0:00
L. Hutson	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	23:10	2:16
J. Struble	D	0	0	0	0	4	1	0	0	17:38	0:00
A. Xhekaj	D	0	0	0	2	4	1	+2	0	14:00	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Montembeault	27	25	2	.926	60:00	Win
J. Dobes	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

UTA

Line 1J. Peterka17:24B. Hayton14:12D. Guenther13:37

Line 2C. Keller13:57L. Cooley15:31N. Schmaltz13:46

Line 3L. Crouse13:28J. McBain13:21M. Carcone12:20

Line 4K. Stenlund9:42K. Yamamoto10:12B. Tanev8:02

Pair 1N. Schmidt19:53J. Marino20:09

Pair 2M. Sergachev19:17D. Simashev17:35

Pair 3I. Cole15:40O. Määttä11:54

MTL

Line 1N. Suzuki14:25J. Slafkovský13:45C. Caufield14:49

Line 2K. Dach14:12Z. Bolduc13:21B. Gallagher12:43

Line 3J. Anderson13:05J. Evans12:14J. Veleno11:03

Line 4A. Newhook12:40O. Kapanen12:21I. Demidov11:12

Pair 1L. Hutson20:54J. Struble17:38

Pair 2M. Matheson18:20N. Dobson17:53

Pair 3A. Carrier15:49A. Xhekaj13:36

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	UTA 3.3, MTL 3.0	UTA 2, MTL 6
Total goals	6.2	8
Shots on goal	UTA 28.2, MTL 24.5	UTA 27, MTL 23
Win chance	UTA 54%	MTL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
UTA D. Guenther	2.9	2	0.84	0	31%	0
MTL C. Caufield	2.8	2	0.83	2	34%	2
UTA C. Keller	2.7	4	1.00	0	32%	0
UTA N. Schmaltz	2.5	3	0.88	0	28%	0
UTA L. Cooley	2.1	0	0.82	0	29%	0
MTL N. Dobson	2.1	1	0.56	1	11%	0
MTL N. Suzuki	2.0	3	0.96	1	28%	1
MTL J. Slafkovský	1.9	2	0.64	1	23%	0
UTA J. Peterka	1.9	2	0.62	0	23%	0
UTA M. Sergachev	1.8	1	0.70	0	13%	0
MTL M. Matheson	1.7	0	0.46	1	10%	0
UTA B. Hayton	1.7	3	0.43	0	18%	0
UTA L. Crouse	1.6	1	0.32	1	18%	1
UTA M. Carcone	1.5	1	0.36	1	18%	0
MTL B. Gallagher	1.4	0	0.39	0	15%	0
MTL Z. Bolduc	1.4	0	0.38	0	18%	0
MTL J. Anderson	1.4	0	0.32	0	17%	0
MTL A. Newhook	1.4	5	0.42	2	18%	1
UTA N. Schmidt	1.3	1	0.34	0	7%	0
UTA D. Simashev	1.2	0	0.15	0	4%	0
MTL K. Dach	1.2	2	0.36	1	14%	1
MTL L. Hutson	1.2	2	0.83	0	8%	0
UTA K. Stenlund	1.2	0	0.28	1	14%	0
UTA J. McBain	1.2	1	0.29	1	13%	0
MTL I. Demidov	1.1	1	0.61	1	17%	0
UTA K. Yamamoto	1.1	2	0.31	1	14%	1
MTL O. Kapanen	1.1	2	0.34	2	14%	1
MTL J. Evans	1.1	0	0.39	0	13%	0
MTL A. Carrier	1.0	0	0.30	1	5%	0
MTL J. Veleno	0.9	1	0.23	0	11%	0
UTA B. Tanev	0.9	0	0.19	0	10%	0
UTA J. Marino	0.9	1	0.34	0	4%	0
MTL A. Xhekaj	0.7	2	0.10	0	3%	0
MTL J. Struble	0.7	0	0.21	0	4%	0
UTA I. Cole	0.7	3	0.21	1	3%	0
UTA O. Määttä	0.6	2	0.16	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.