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Game Recap
UTA4
Final/OTThu, Nov 5, 2026Every game that night
MTL5

MTL beat UTA 5-4 in overtime, with the chances close: 4.20 expected goals to 3.54. MTL outshot UTA 35 to 20. L. Cooley scored three for UTA. C. Caufield had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.7. J. Dobes stopped 16 of 20.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdOTT
UTA21104
MTL20215
  1. 1st 1:42UTAL. Cooley0.19 xG
  2. 1st 9:24UTAL. CooleyPP0.16 xG
  3. 1st 15:25MTLN. Suzuki0.09 xG
  4. 1st 17:10MTLA. Xhekaj0.02 xG
  5. 2nd 11:05UTAL. CooleyPP0.19 xG
  6. 3rd 1:09MTLK. DachPP0.29 xG
  7. 3rd 7:14UTAN. SchmaltzPP0.21 xG
  8. 3rd 14:54MTLA. Engstrom0.05 xG
  9. OT 0:30MTLC. Caufield0.12 xG

Team Stats

UTAMTL
20Shots on goal35
3.54Expected goals4.20
55Shot attempts69
135v5 shots on goal23
3/5Power play1/4
30Hits17
15Blocked shots14
17Penalty minutes19
10Giveaways18
4Takeaways1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

UTA 3.54 xGMTL 4.20 xGGoal

012341st2nd3rdOTUTA goal, 1:42UTA goal, 9:24MTL goal, 15:25MTL goal, 17:10UTA goal, 11:05MTL goal, 1:09UTA goal, 7:14MTL goal, 14:54MTL goal, 0:30

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

UTA19 on goal, 4 scored
MTL35 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

UTA Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
L. CooleyC314320-1219:316:10
N. SchmaltzC123301-2017:305:51
C. KellerRW011101-1022:246:15
V. TrocheckC0111100018:461:07
D. GuentherRW011121-2017:205:56
B. HaytonC0001000015:120:48
A. LeeLW0001100014:340:43
L. CrouseLW000221-1014:000:00
J. McBainC000242-1013:430:00
M. CarconeLW0000610010:031:02
K. StenlundC000100049:360:00
L. O'BrienC000250075:410:00
M. SergachevD011013-2227:316:05
N. SchmidtD011000003:590:00
M. WeegarD000135-2024:540:53
A. PeekeD000020-1223:160:00
D. SimashevD0001100019:150:00
N. DeSimoneD0000000014:580:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
S. Cossa35305.85760:30OT loss
K. Vejmelka000–0:00

MTL Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
N. SuzukiC123420+2020:045:30
K. DachC112210+2011:280:49
J. EvansC0110210019:470:00
J. SlafkovskýLW011420+1219:415:31
C. CaufieldRW101611+2218:254:41
A. NewhookC011012+1212:142:04
P. DanaultC0001020016:040:00
Z. BolducRW0004200015:475:33
A. TexierLW000111-1213:102:03
J. AndersonRW000131+1212:220:00
C. KreiderLW000100-1211:332:04
O. KapanenC000100+108:591:52
L. HutsonD022300+2027:005:40
N. DobsonD022100+1020:351:54
A. EngstromD101200+1010:480:00
A. XhekajD101202059:530:00
K. GuhleD000112+1223:110:09
A. CarrierD0001120021:410:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
J. Dobes20164.80060:30Win
J. Fowler000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

UTA

Line 1A. Lee13:51C. Keller14:58B. Hayton13:18
Line 2V. Trocheck12:41L. Crouse10:27L. Cooley12:44
Line 3N. Schmaltz11:03D. Guenther10:22J. McBain10:18
Line 4M. Carcone9:01K. Stenlund6:30L. O'Brien5:41
Pair 1M. Weegar17:53M. Sergachev16:26
Pair 2N. DeSimone14:00D. Simashev15:47
Pair 3N. Schmidt3:59A. Peeke19:46

MTL

Line 1N. Suzuki13:31C. Caufield12:44J. Slafkovský13:00
Line 2J. Anderson11:34J. Evans13:03C. Kreider9:08
Line 3A. Texier11:07Z. Bolduc10:14P. Danault9:57
Line 4K. Dach10:39A. Newhook9:09O. Kapanen7:07
Pair 1L. Hutson19:46N. Dobson16:12
Pair 2A. Carrier15:30K. Guhle17:25
Pair 3A. Engstrom10:09A. Xhekaj8:30

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

8 of 23 overs hit (35%).

PlayerLineOverUnderSOGResult
MTL C. Caufield2.5-150+1356Over
UTA C. Keller2.5+118-1351Under
UTA D. Guenther2.5-125+1001Under
MTL J. Slafkovský2.5+148-1804Over
UTA N. Schmaltz2.5+148-1603Over
MTL N. Suzuki2.5+135-1454Over
UTA A. Lee1.5-144+1351Under
MTL A. Newhook1.5-175–0Under
MTL A. Texier1.5+140-1851Under
UTA B. Hayton1.5-128+1051Under
MTL J. Anderson1.5-118-1051Under
MTL K. Guhle1.5+130–1Under
UTA L. Cooley1.5-175+1403Over
UTA L. Crouse1.5+115-1402Over
MTL L. Hutson1.5-110-1103Over
UTA M. Carcone1.5-120–0Under
UTA M. Sergachev1.5-165+1400Under
UTA M. Weegar1.5-115+1151Under
MTL N. Dobson1.5-140+1201Under
MTL O. Kapanen1.5+100–1Under
MTL P. Danault1.5+110–1Under
UTA V. Trocheck1.5-106-1101Under
MTL Z. Bolduc1.5+105-1304Over

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreUTA 3.4, MTL 3.3UTA 4, MTL 5
Total goals6.79
Shots on goalUTA 29.0, MTL 25.4UTA 20, MTL 35
Win chanceUTA 51%MTL won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
MTL C. Caufield2.760.92138%1
UTA D. Guenther2.610.77131%0
UTA C. Keller2.510.94128%0
UTA A. Lee2.410.52025%0
MTL N. Suzuki2.241.12332%1
UTA N. Schmaltz2.030.71325%1
UTA B. Hayton2.010.46019%0
MTL J. Slafkovský2.040.74126%0
MTL N. Dobson1.910.54211%0
UTA M. Sergachev1.900.72111%0
UTA L. Cooley1.930.76429%3
UTA M. Weegar1.910.4209%0
UTA V. Trocheck1.610.56119%0
MTL J. Anderson1.610.42021%0
UTA M. Carcone1.600.33016%0
UTA L. Crouse1.520.39019%0
MTL L. Hutson1.430.86211%0
UTA J. McBain1.420.37016%0
MTL Z. Bolduc1.440.49020%0
MTL P. Danault1.310.50017%0
MTL A. Texier1.310.43016%0
MTL C. Kreider1.310.51023%0
MTL A. Newhook1.300.49121%0
MTL O. Kapanen1.210.37018%0
MTL K. Guhle1.210.3906%0
MTL J. Evans1.100.45116%0
UTA N. Schmidt1.000.2516%0
UTA A. Peeke1.000.2004%0
MTL K. Dach1.020.33213%1
UTA D. Simashev0.910.1505%0
UTA K. Stenlund0.910.2309%0
MTL A. Carrier0.810.3706%0
UTA L. O'Brien0.820.1407%0
UTA N. DeSimone0.800.1704%0
MTL A. Engstrom0.820.1314%1
MTL A. Xhekaj0.720.1213%1

Shots on goal: 16 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.