Game Recap: UTA 0, NJD 3, October 14, 2024

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Game Recap

UTA0

FinalMon, Oct 14, 2024Every game that night

NJD3

NJD beat UTA 3-0, and the chances backed it up: 3.94 expected goals to 1.90. NJD outshot UTA 32 to 20. N. Hischier led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). J. Allen stopped 20 of 20.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
UTA	0	0	0	0
NJD	0	2	1	3

2nd 1:14NJDS. CaseyPP0.10 xG
2nd 8:13NJDS. Noesen0.27 xG
3rd 10:13NJDN. HischierPP0.21 xG

Team Stats

UTANJD

20Shots on goal32

1.90Expected goals3.94

41Shot attempts62

135v5 shots on goal14

0/4Power play2/7

8Hits29

21Blocked shots9

12Penalty minutes8

16Giveaways10

6Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

UTA 1.90 xGNJD 3.94 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

UTA18 on goal, 0 scored

NJD32 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

UTA Skaters

Player	Pos	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. Schmaltz	C	0	0	0	0	0	17:52	3:16
K. Stenlund	C	0	0	3	-1	0	17:31	0:02
C. Keller	RW	3	0	1	0	0	16:59	3:13
J. Doan	RW	0	2	1	0	2	15:46	3:04
A. Kerfoot	C	3	0	0	0	0	15:31	0:00
L. Cooley	C	3	1	1	0	0	15:26	3:07
B. Hayton	C	1	0	0	0	0	14:37	3:11
L. Crouse	LW	3	0	1	0	2	14:19	3:04
D. Guenther	RW	1	1	0	0	0	13:48	3:10
M. Maccelli	LW	0	0	1	-1	0	13:18	3:10
J. McBain	C	0	1	0	0	0	11:59	0:00
L. O'Brien	C	0	3	1	-1	0	8:52	0:00
M. Sergachev	D	2	0	1	0	2	28:25	3:08
J. Välimäki	D	1	0	2	0	2	21:12	2:15
M. Kesselring	D	2	0	1	0	0	20:03	0:00
I. Cole	D	0	0	4	-1	4	18:11	0:00
V. Kolyachonok	D	0	0	2	-1	0	15:57	0:00
S. Durzi	D	1	0	2	0	0	9:09	1:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
K. Vejmelka	32	29	3	.906	58:11	Loss
C. Ingram	0	0	0	–	0:00

NJD Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. Hischier	C	1	1	2	5	0	2	0	0	19:25	8:07
J. Hughes	C	0	1	1	3	0	1	0	0	21:08	9:08
J. Bratt	LW	0	1	1	4	1	0	0	0	17:33	8:33
S. Noesen	RW	1	0	1	1	4	1	+1	0	14:56	3:21
T. Meier	RW	0	0	0	3	1	1	0	0	17:07	7:23
E. Haula	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	+1	0	15:50	2:29
P. Cotter	LW	0	0	0	1	8	0	+1	2	14:03	0:25
D. Mercer	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	13:56	2:12
C. Lazar	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	12:27	0:00
N. Bastian	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	11:57	0:00
O. Palat	LW	0	0	0	2	4	0	0	0	11:38	0:00
T. Tatar	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	2	11:24	1:59
S. Casey	D	1	1	2	1	0	1	+1	0	14:09	1:57
D. Hamilton	D	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	2	23:06	8:52
J. Kovacevic	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	20:01	0:34
S. Nemec	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	0	18:25	0:56
B. Dillon	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	17:44	0:49
J. Siegenthaler	D	0	0	0	1	3	1	0	0	17:11	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Allen	20	20	0	1.000	60:00	Win
J. Markstrom	0	0	0	–	0:00

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	UTA 3.3, NJD 3.5	UTA 0, NJD 3
Total goals	6.8	3
Shots on goal	UTA 27.6, NJD 31.5	UTA 20, NJD 32
Win chance	NJD 53%	NJD won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
NJD J. Hughes	4.0	3	1.16	1	37%	0
NJD T. Meier	3.4	3	0.84	0	35%	0
UTA C. Keller	2.9	3	0.98	0	34%	0
NJD D. Hamilton	2.9	4	0.74	0	17%	0
NJD J. Bratt	2.8	4	0.96	1	29%	0
NJD N. Hischier	2.8	5	0.97	2	30%	1
UTA D. Guenther	2.7	1	0.72	0	29%	0
UTA B. Hayton	2.2	1	0.49	0	19%	0
UTA N. Schmaltz	2.1	0	0.86	0	27%	0
UTA S. Durzi	1.9	1	0.56	0	10%	0
UTA L. Cooley	1.9	3	0.56	0	20%	0
NJD E. Haula	1.9	1	0.51	0	19%	0
NJD D. Mercer	1.8	2	0.57	0	26%	0
UTA J. Doan	1.8	0	0.56	0	21%	0
UTA L. Crouse	1.8	3	0.47	0	22%	0
UTA M. Sergachev	1.6	2	0.59	0	8%	0
UTA A. Kerfoot	1.5	3	0.53	0	16%	0
UTA M. Maccelli	1.4	0	0.55	0	15%	0
NJD O. Palat	1.3	2	0.45	0	17%	0
NJD P. Cotter	1.3	1	0.37	0	16%	0
NJD S. Noesen	1.3	1	0.45	1	16%	1
UTA M. Kesselring	1.3	2	0.35	0	6%	0
NJD T. Tatar	1.3	1	0.40	0	16%	0
UTA J. Välimäki	1.1	1	0.33	0	4%	0
NJD J. Siegenthaler	1.1	1	0.24	0	4%	0
NJD J. Kovacevic	1.1	0	0.31	0	8%	0
NJD N. Bastian	1.1	1	0.25	0	11%	0
UTA K. Stenlund	1.0	0	0.18	0	12%	0
NJD B. Dillon	1.0	0	0.32	0	6%	0
UTA L. O'Brien	1.0	0	0.18	0	7%	0
NJD S. Nemec	1.0	1	0.26	0	5%	0
NJD C. Lazar	0.9	1	0.23	0	9%	0
UTA J. McBain	0.8	0	0.32	0	12%	0
UTA I. Cole	0.8	0	0.19	0	3%	0
UTA V. Kolyachonok	0.7	0	0.17	0	4%	0

Shots on goal: 19 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.