Game Recap: UTA 3, NSH 2 (OT), October 11, 2025

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Game Recap

UTA3

Final/OTSat, Oct 11, 2025Every game that night

NSH2

UTA beat NSH 3-2 in overtime despite fewer good chances: 2.82 expected goals to 3.75. D. Guenther led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). J. McBain had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.3. K. Vejmelka stopped 21 of 23.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
UTA	1	0	1	1	3
NSH	1	1	0	0	2

1st 2:21UTAL. Cooley0.18 xG
1st 7:23NSHF. Forsberg0.07 xG
2nd 13:13NSHE. Haula0.81 xG
3rd 11:37UTAJ. McBain0.48 xG
OT 2:56UTAD. Guenther0.21 xG

Team Stats

UTANSH

23Shots on goal23

2.82Expected goals3.75

43Shot attempts60

125v5 shots on goal15

0/4Power play0/5

21Hits20

20Blocked shots12

14Penalty minutes12

20Giveaways25

6Takeaways7

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

UTA 2.82 xGNSH 3.75 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

UTA23 on goal, 3 scored

NSH23 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

UTA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
D. Guenther	RW	1	1	2	4	1	3	+2	0	23:54	5:54
L. Cooley	C	1	0	1	3	1	0	+1	0	22:40	5:54
N. Schmaltz	C	0	1	1	4	0	0	0	2	20:04	5:33
J. McBain	C	1	0	1	4	1	1	0	2	17:08	1:47
J. Peterka	RW	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	0	15:08	1:45
C. Keller	RW	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	23:05	6:02
K. Stenlund	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	2	17:28	0:21
L. Crouse	LW	0	0	0	0	5	0	-1	0	16:15	0:14
B. Tanev	LW	0	0	0	2	6	0	0	0	11:13	0:08
K. Yamamoto	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	9:28	2:17
A. Agozzino	LW	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	5:21	0:00
S. Durzi	D	0	1	1	0	2	2	+1	4	16:58	1:52
M. Sergachev	D	0	0	0	0	0	7	0	0	28:10	5:31
I. Cole	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	+1	2	19:11	0:12
N. Schmidt	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	18:41	2:20
J. Marino	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	-2	0	16:31	0:00
O. Maatta	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	0	9:42	0:00
D. Simashev	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	+1	2	8:31	0:10

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
K. Vejmelka	23	21	2	.913	62:16	Win
V. Vanecek	0	0	0	–	0:00

NSH Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
F. Forsberg	LW	1	0	1	5	4	1	+1	0	20:51	7:19
J. Marchessault	RW	0	1	1	5	5	0	0	2	17:50	5:21
E. Haula	LW	1	0	1	3	3	1	0	2	14:53	0:31
L. Evangelista	RW	0	1	1	2	1	0	0	0	13:28	2:31
B. Martin	C	0	1	1	0	0	0	+1	0	10:40	2:02
R. O'Reilly	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	+1	0	21:21	6:48
S. Stamkos	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	6	19:59	7:24
M. Bunting	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	15:25	4:29
M. McCarron	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	-1	0	14:15	0:02
C. Smith	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	13:34	0:00
F. Svechkov	C	0	0	0	3	0	1	-1	0	13:28	2:03
T. Jost	C	0	0	0	3	1	0	-1	0	10:47	0:00
R. Josi	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	-1	0	27:43	6:58
B. Skjei	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	+2	0	22:54	3:21
N. Perbix	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	+2	0	20:25	1:09
A. Wilsby	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	2	17:00	0:02
S. Stastney	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-2	0	13:47	0:00
J. Barron	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	12:44	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Saros	23	20	3	.870	62:40	OT loss
J. Annunen	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

UTA

Line 1C. Keller15:29N. Schmaltz13:40J. McBain12:15

Line 2J. Peterka12:25D. Guenther11:56L. Cooley13:35

Line 3K. Stenlund10:56L. Crouse11:21B. Tanev9:31

Line 4A. Agozzino5:17K. Yamamoto6:02

Pair 1N. Schmidt13:13S. Durzi14:08

Pair 2J. Marino13:27M. Sergachev12:48

Pair 3I. Cole11:43D. Simashev8:05

NSH

Line 1E. Haula11:46J. Marchessault11:31M. Bunting10:40

Line 2R. O'Reilly12:02F. Forsberg11:43B. Martin8:38

Line 3M. McCarron9:56C. Smith8:31T. Jost9:11

Line 4S. Stamkos10:42L. Evangelista9:36F. Svechkov8:48

Pair 1R. Josi17:07A. Wilsby15:53

Pair 2B. Skjei14:50N. Perbix14:00

Pair 3S. Stastney10:46J. Barron9:40

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	UTA 3.2, NSH 3.0	UTA 3, NSH 2
Total goals	6.2	5
Shots on goal	UTA 28.3, NSH 28.6	UTA 23, NSH 23
Win chance	UTA 52%	UTA won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
NSH F. Forsberg	3.1	5	0.92	1	34%	1
UTA D. Guenther	3.0	4	0.82	2	28%	1
NSH R. Josi	2.7	0	0.77	0	19%	0
UTA C. Keller	2.6	1	0.98	0	29%	0
NSH J. Marchessault	2.3	5	0.72	1	29%	0
UTA J. Peterka	2.2	1	0.74	1	25%	0
NSH S. Stamkos	2.2	1	0.82	0	33%	0
NSH L. Evangelista	2.2	2	0.52	1	18%	0
UTA L. Cooley	2.1	3	0.73	1	24%	1
NSH M. Bunting	2.1	0	0.54	0	22%	0
NSH B. Skjei	2.0	0	0.45	0	13%	0
UTA N. Schmaltz	2.0	4	0.71	1	21%	0
NSH R. O'Reilly	1.9	1	0.70	0	25%	0
NSH E. Haula	1.8	3	0.42	1	19%	1
UTA M. Sergachev	1.8	0	0.65	0	14%	0
UTA S. Durzi	1.6	0	0.45	1	11%	0
UTA A. Agozzino	1.6	0	0.44	0	14%	0
UTA L. Crouse	1.5	0	0.30	0	16%	0
NSH A. Wilsby	1.4	0	0.21	0	5%	0
NSH T. Jost	1.4	3	0.31	0	11%	0
UTA K. Stenlund	1.3	1	0.33	0	15%	0
NSH F. Svechkov	1.3	3	0.36	0	15%	0
NSH J. Barron	1.3	0	0.26	0	10%	0
NSH M. McCarron	1.3	0	0.26	0	13%	0
UTA J. McBain	1.3	4	0.39	1	14%	1
NSH C. Smith	1.2	0	0.23	0	9%	0
UTA N. Schmidt	1.1	1	0.31	0	7%	0
UTA K. Yamamoto	1.1	1	0.31	0	13%	0
NSH N. Perbix	0.9	0	0.25	0	5%	0
UTA B. Tanev	0.9	2	0.21	0	10%	0
UTA J. Marino	0.8	0	0.31	0	5%	0
UTA I. Cole	0.8	1	0.19	0	4%	0
UTA O. Maatta	0.7	0	0.19	0	4%	0
NSH S. Stastney	0.6	0	0.15	0	4%	0

Shots on goal: 12 of 34 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.