Game Recap: UTA 5, NSH 2, January 24, 2026

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Game Recap

UTA5

FinalSat, Jan 24, 2026Every game that night

NSH2

UTA beat NSH 5-2, and the chances backed it up: 3.90 expected goals to 2.88. M. Sergachev led the way with 3 points (0 G, 3 A). B. Hayton had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 1.7. K. Vejmelka stopped 27 of 29.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
UTA	0	3	2	5
NSH	1	1	0	2

1st 3:43NSHS. StamkosPP0.07 xG
2nd 3:00UTAC. Keller0.09 xG
2nd 5:13UTAM. Carcone0.05 xG
2nd 8:10UTAK. Yamamoto0.09 xG
2nd 16:39NSHJ. Marchessault0.12 xG
3rd 11:02UTAB. HaytonPP0.45 xG
3rd 18:28UTAJ. PeterkaEN0.93 xG

Team Stats

UTANSH

30Shots on goal29

3.90Expected goals2.88

55Shot attempts58

265v5 shots on goal24

1/2Power play1/3

19Hits29

13Blocked shots13

6Penalty minutes4

23Giveaways13

5Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

UTA 3.90 xGNSH 2.88 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

UTA31 on goal, 5 scored

NSH29 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

UTA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
D. Guenther	RW	0	2	2	2	2	1	+2	0	17:06	2:03
B. Hayton	C	1	1	2	7	1	0	0	0	15:10	2:05
K. Yamamoto	RW	1	1	2	1	1	1	+2	2	14:49	0:00
C. Keller	RW	1	0	1	4	0	1	+2	0	17:52	2:02
M. Carcone	LW	1	0	1	1	2	1	+1	0	15:10	0:59
J. Peterka	RW	1	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	14:08	0:57
N. Schmaltz	C	0	0	0	4	1	0	+2	2	19:21	2:08
K. Stenlund	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	15:41	0:00
J. McBain	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	+1	0	15:35	0:57
L. O'Brien	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	12:11	0:00
D. But	LW	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	0	11:51	0:54
B. Tanev	LW	0	0	0	3	3	0	0	0	10:45	0:00
M. Sergachev	D	0	3	3	1	1	1	+1	0	23:32	2:05
S. Durzi	D	0	2	2	2	0	3	+1	0	20:14	1:00
N. Schmidt	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	0	20:21	0:00
I. Cole	D	0	0	0	0	3	2	+1	0	19:42	0:00
J. Marino	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	+1	0	18:28	0:00
N. DeSimone	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	+1	2	14:53	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
K. Vejmelka	29	27	2	.931	60:00	Win
V. Vanecek	0	0	0	–	0:00

NSH Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
S. Stamkos	C	1	0	1	2	1	0	-1	0	18:58	2:36
J. Marchessault	RW	1	0	1	2	1	0	+1	0	17:16	1:11
R. O'Reilly	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	-3	0	21:23	2:38
F. Forsberg	LW	0	0	0	3	2	0	-2	0	18:04	2:37
M. Bunting	LW	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	0	16:39	0:33
C. Smith	RW	0	0	0	4	2	0	0	0	15:51	0:00
M. McCarron	C	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	15:32	0:00
E. Haula	LW	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	14:36	0:34
L. Evangelista	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-2	0	14:31	2:01
M. Wood	RW	0	0	0	2	3	0	-1	0	12:47	0:33
T. Jost	C	0	0	0	1	3	0	-1	0	10:37	0:00
O. Wiesblatt	C	0	0	0	1	3	1	0	0	7:26	0:00
R. Josi	D	0	1	1	4	1	4	-3	2	29:13	2:38
B. Skjei	D	0	1	1	0	4	0	-1	0	25:03	0:00
N. Perbix	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	18:15	0:00
A. Wilsby	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	2	17:23	0:00
N. Blankenburg	D	0	0	0	1	2	0	-3	0	14:41	0:34
J. Barron	D	0	0	0	1	0	4	+1	0	10:56	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Saros	30	26	4	.867	57:47	Loss
J. Annunen	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

UTA

Line 1N. Schmaltz15:22K. Yamamoto14:39C. Keller14:56

Line 2M. Carcone13:45D. Guenther13:25J. McBain12:04

Line 3L. O'Brien12:11K. Stenlund12:16B. Tanev10:45

Line 4J. Peterka12:10B. Hayton12:02D. But10:57

Pair 1M. Sergachev17:54S. Durzi19:08

Pair 2N. Schmidt18:36J. Marino16:46

Pair 3I. Cole16:08N. DeSimone14:46

NSH

Line 1M. McCarron13:30C. Smith13:48J. Marchessault14:46

Line 2E. Haula12:00M. Bunting15:03S. Stamkos15:00

Line 3R. O'Reilly16:34F. Forsberg14:17L. Evangelista11:31

Line 4M. Wood11:20T. Jost9:44O. Wiesblatt7:26

Pair 1R. Josi24:07B. Skjei22:10

Pair 2N. Perbix16:13A. Wilsby17:15

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	UTA 3.4, NSH 3.0	UTA 5, NSH 2
Total goals	6.3	7
Shots on goal	UTA 28.5, NSH 27.4	UTA 30, NSH 29
Win chance	UTA 55%	UTA won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
UTA D. Guenther	3.1	2	0.89	2	32%	0
NSH F. Forsberg	3.0	3	0.94	0	35%	0
NSH R. Josi	2.8	4	0.81	1	19%	0
UTA C. Keller	2.6	4	1.03	1	30%	1
UTA N. Schmaltz	2.3	4	0.90	0	27%	0
NSH S. Stamkos	2.3	2	0.83	1	35%	1
NSH L. Evangelista	2.2	0	0.68	0	19%	0
UTA J. Peterka	2.0	0	0.70	1	25%	1
UTA M. Carcone	1.9	1	0.46	1	20%	1
NSH R. O'Reilly	1.9	2	0.87	0	28%	0
NSH J. Marchessault	1.8	2	0.51	1	24%	1
UTA M. Sergachev	1.8	1	0.66	3	13%	0
NSH B. Skjei	1.7	0	0.36	1	10%	0
UTA B. Hayton	1.7	7	0.44	2	16%	1
NSH M. Bunting	1.7	1	0.49	0	20%	0
NSH E. Haula	1.5	0	0.39	0	16%	0
UTA S. Durzi	1.5	2	0.45	2	10%	0
UTA D. But	1.4	0	0.32	0	13%	0
UTA J. McBain	1.4	0	0.37	0	14%	0
NSH M. McCarron	1.3	1	0.22	0	10%	0
NSH C. Smith	1.2	4	0.24	0	11%	0
NSH M. Wood	1.2	2	0.28	0	13%	0
NSH N. Blankenburg	1.1	1	0.28	0	7%	0
NSH A. Wilsby	1.1	2	0.20	0	4%	0
UTA N. Schmidt	1.1	1	0.34	0	7%	0
UTA K. Stenlund	1.1	1	0.30	0	13%	0
NSH T. Jost	1.0	1	0.21	0	9%	0
NSH N. Perbix	0.9	2	0.23	0	6%	0
UTA K. Yamamoto	0.9	1	0.27	2	11%	1
UTA N. DeSimone	0.9	0	0.19	0	5%	0
UTA L. O'Brien	0.9	2	0.14	0	5%	0
UTA J. Marino	0.8	1	0.39	0	5%	0
NSH O. Wiesblatt	0.7	1	0.17	0	7%	0
UTA B. Tanev	0.7	3	0.16	0	8%	0
NSH J. Barron	0.7	1	0.15	0	5%	0
UTA I. Cole	0.7	0	0.23	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.